2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

[gfsperpendicular]

Just a reminder that Isaias, if not retired, would be the costliest storm to not be retired by a significant margin. I don't think it should be retired, but people act like it has no chance.

[cheezyWXguy]

My estimated probability so far:

Arthur - 0%
Bertha - 2%
Cristobal - 2%
Dolly - 0%
Edouard - 0%
Fay - 2%
Gonzalo - 0%
Hanna - 10%
Isaias - 35%
Josephine - 0%
Kyle - 0%
Laura - 100%
Marco - 2%
Nana - 3%
Omar - 0%
Paulette - 5%
Rene - 0%
Sally - 70%
Teddy - TBD
Vicky - 0%

I’m surprised you don’t have sally as a shoe-in. Given the more populated area it hit, and significantly longer duration of effects, I would imagine Sally’s cost will be well above Laura’s.

I'd want to see better numbers before raising the likelihood.

Makes sense

[ElectricStorm]

Just a reminder that Isaias, if not retired, would be the costliest storm to not be retired by a significant margin. I don't think it should be retired, but people act like it has no chance.

I think Isaias would be retired if it wasn't for Laura or Sally. But since both of them happened I don't think he gets the boot.

[ClarCari]

In previous years besides 2017, I’d imagine Isaias would stick out, but we’ve already had 3 other landfalling U.S. hurricanes, and we’re only halfway thru september with more to come most likely sadly. Although so far it is the only hurricane hit on the East Coast so far so maybe, unless something else happens..

[Torino]

Sally might be the first non-major hurricane (or TS) to be retired by the US since Allison, considering overall peak intensity. Other similar cases were Diane and Agnes (if I'm not forgetting anyone).

[Blinhart]

Sally might be the first non-major hurricane (or TS) to be retired by the US since Allison, considering overall peak intensity. Other similar cases were Diane and Agnes (if I'm not forgetting anyone).

Post-analysis will probably bump her up to a Major, so don't know about that.

[Nuno]

Just a reminder that Isaias, if not retired, would be the costliest storm to not be retired by a significant margin. I don't think it should be retired, but people act like it has no chance.

Isaias didn't cause extreme or catastrophic damage. Extensive area affected? Yes. But this wasn't a Laura or Dorian.

[somethingfunny]

At some point, the WMO will stop retiring I names because there are no more.

If an auxillary list is introduced, it'll probably exclude I instead of QXYZ.

[TheStormExpert]

If I were to choose a replacement for Sally, my first choice would be Stefanie. Next best are Susan and Shelby.

Stephanie, or Stefanie?

[CrazyC83]

If I were to choose a replacement for Sally, my first choice would be Stefanie. Next best are Susan and Shelby.

Stephanie, or Stefanie?

Either works, but I went with the less common spelling.

[Jr0d]

I have friends on Orange Beach, Alabama; one lost pretty much everything. After seeing the pictures of the destruction there, Sally should be retired!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd be surprised if Sally isn't retired. Even though it wasn't a major hurricane at landfall, the damage is comparable to a high-end Category 3 at least from what I've seen, mostly due to the slow forward speed.

[BadLarry95]

So far I’m thinking
2019- Dorian, Imelda
2020- Isaias, Laura, Sally

Replacements
Derek, Denzel, Dwayne
Ivana, Inna, Iva
Ilya, Iggy, Ichiro
Lexi, Luna, Leah
Sofia, Stephanie, Sienna

[DioBrando]

So far I’m thinking
2019- Dorian, Imelda
2020- Isaias, Laura, Sally

Replacements
Derek, Denzel, Dwayne
Ivana, Inna, Iva
Ilya, Iggy, Ichiro
Lexi, Luna, Leah
Sofia, Stephanie, Sienna

I like these replacements! Don't like some of the frankly old-fashioned, outdated names I see these days. I picked these names in order to suit the overall vibe of the naming lists. 2019/2025, for example, has and always had a somewhat "edgy" feel, so my replacement suggestions reflect that. I'd go for:

2025
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dante
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Isolde
Jerry
Karen
Luigi
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
Xander
Yvonne
Zain

2026
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Icarus
Josephine
Kyle
Luna
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sabrina
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
Ximena
Yuri
Zoey

I'd also add in X Y Z names as well, as indicated. These would repeat every 2 years.

[TheStormExpert]

We know for a fact that Dorian is getting retired next spring no questions asked. Laura has likely a 90-100% chance at retirement, while Sally likely has a 70-80% chance at retirement in my opinion.

[BadLarry95]

So far I’m thinking
2019- Dorian, Imelda
2020- Isaias, Laura, Sally

Replacements
Derek, Denzel, Dwayne
Ivana, Inna, Iva
Ilya, Iggy, Ichiro
Lexi, Luna, Leah
Sofia, Stephanie, Sienna

I like these replacements! Don't like some of the frankly old-fashioned, outdated names I see these days. I picked these names in order to suit the overall vibe of the naming lists. 2019/2025, for example, has and always had a somewhat "edgy" feel, so my replacement suggestions reflect that. I'd go for:

2025
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dante
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Isolde
Jerry
Karen
Luigi
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
Xander
Yvonne
Zain

2026
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Icarus
Josephine
Kyle
Luna
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sabrina
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
Ximena
Yuri
Zoey

I'd also add in X Y Z names as well, as indicated. These would repeat every 2 years.

I love the idea of adding names to an aux list. XYZ can start it. I actually contacted the NHC on the suggestion of a 2 year rotating aux list. The list I sent them was

Allie, Blake, Cara, Dave, Ella, Franco, Gisele, Horacio, Imogen, Jacques, Kira, Lucas, Marta, Nathaniel, Olina, Pedro, Raven, Scott, Taylor, Vinny, Wilhemina

Aaron, Brittney, Cody, Dana, Elton, Felice, Gregório, Holly, Ingmar, Jennifer, Kal, Lucy, Miguel, Noelle, Oliver, Pam, Ricardo, Stacey, Trevor, Vittoria, Winston

[captainbarbossa19]

Sally might be the first non-major hurricane (or TS) to be retired by the US since Allison, considering overall peak intensity. Other similar cases were Diane and Agnes (if I'm not forgetting anyone).

Ike in 2008 was a Category 2 (probably should have been a 3) that was retired.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Sally might be the first non-major hurricane (or TS) to be retired by the US since Allison, considering overall peak intensity. Other similar cases were Diane and Agnes (if I'm not forgetting anyone).

Ike in 2008 was a Category 2 (probably should have been a 3) that was retired.

I believe he's referring to max intensity, as Ike also peaked as a Category 4 storm and made landfall near peak intensity in Cuba.

[bob rulz]

Dorian and Laura are about 100% chance to get retired. I would put Sally at about 70%, though I'm open to bumping those chances up. The death toll was low though, and damage estimates I've seen are lower than with Laura. Outside of that, I'll give Isaias about 40% (lots of damage, but not catastrophic in any way and I don't think it will be widely remembered), Imelda 20%, and Lorenzo maybe 5% (can't imagine, but maybe they would for historic reasons alone, though there's not really a precedent for retiring names for that reason in the Atlantic). I don't see any others so far having a chance, unless Teddy ends up being bad for Canada (Juan or Igor level bad).

[USTropics]

Dorian and Laura are about 100% chance to get retired. I would put Sally at about 70%, though I'm open to bumping those chances up. The death toll was low though, and damage estimates I've seen are lower than with Laura. Outside of that, I'll give Isaias about 40% (lots of damage, but not catastrophic in any way and I don't think it will be widely remembered), Imelda 20%, and Lorenzo maybe 5% (can't imagine, but maybe they would for historic reasons alone, though there's not really a precedent for retiring names for that reason in the Atlantic). I don't see any others so far having a chance, unless Teddy ends up being bad for Canada (Juan or Igor level bad).

Dorian is a lock. The only category 5 hurricane not to be retired since the satellite era (1966) was Edith I believe. Lorenzo may become the 2nd Cat5 to fall in that category as well, although impacts to Azores/Western Europe put this higher than 5% imo (there were 19 deaths associated with the ship that sunk I believe). Laura seems like a certainty as well (solid Cat4 at landfall, upper end estimate of ~$12 billion in damage, and a death toll of 25). I also believe Isaias has a higher chance of being retired. It's caused the second most damage to the Northeast U.S. at $5.25 billion (second to only Sandy I believe), 10 states were impacted (FL/NC/SC/VA/MD/DE/PA/NJ/NY/NE; impacts were also in Bahamas/Canada), and also had a death toll of 9.

Sally is a bit too soon to really give a good estimate, 70% definitely seems reasonable at this time. Flooding assessment will take some time to give a true estimate of damage. I also believe Imelda doesn't get retired, it was a significant flooding/rain event; don't get me wrong. Other factors contributing to the biblical flooding will be taken into account though, which is why it doesn't quite qualify imo.