2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

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bob rulz
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#201 Postby bob rulz » Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:06 am

As far as east coast damages, you're forgetting Irene. Isaias just seems like a "lesser" Irene (sorry, might be bad to use that word, just couldn't think of anything better). However, considering I don't live on the East Coast, maybe I'm underestimating Isaias's impact. It just seems like any hurricane striking the East Coast at the right angle could easily cause $5 billion in damages. If it had a high death toll I'd be more amenable to considering its retirement, but its preliminary damage total is only a little bit higher than Imelda and it has a pretty low death toll. No doubt $5 billion is a lot of damage, but given population densities in hurricane-prone areas of the U.S., I think $5 billion storms in the U.S. will start to become almost routine. I think retiring storms like Imelda and Isaias will cause some complications in the future. Sally might end up being in this category too, though its damages are still being calculated and it seems to have had a bigger impact on a specific area than Isaias's more generalized but widespread impact.

I certainly get the case for Isaias, and I think it's possible it gets retired, which is why I still have it at 40%. I just think it's not actually all that hard to get $5 billion in damages from an east coast-riding storm and its impact doesn't seem to quite reach that level for me. A lot will also depend on how the rest of the season goes - its chances go down with each major devastating storm we have, and especially if a devastating storm hits the east coast later this year.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#202 Postby Torino » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:28 am

USTropics wrote:Dorian is a lock. The only category 5 hurricane not to be retired since the satellite era (1966) was Edith I believe. Lorenzo may become the 2nd Cat5 to fall in that category as well, although impacts to Azores/Western Europe put this higher than 5% imo (there were 19 deaths associated with the ship that sunk I believe).


Cat 5 not retired:
Carol 1953 (later retired for the 1954 storm)
Esther 1961
Edith 1971 (cat 5 at landfall)
Emily 2005
possibly Lorenzo 2019
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#203 Postby Torino » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:42 am

BadLarry95 wrote:I love the idea of adding names to an aux list. XYZ can start it. I actually contacted the NHC on the suggestion of a 2 year rotating aux list. The list I sent them was

Allie, Blake, Cara, Dave, Ella, Franco, Gisele, Horacio, Imogen, Jacques, Kira, Lucas, Marta, Nathaniel, Olina, Pedro, Raven, Scott, Taylor, Vinny, Wilhemina

Aaron, Brittney, Cody, Dana, Elton, Felice, Gregório, Holly, Ingmar, Jennifer, Kal, Lucy, Miguel, Noelle, Oliver, Pam, Ricardo, Stacey, Trevor, Vittoria, Winston


I think they will only create two auxiliary lists if a Greek Letter really needs to be retired. Otherwise, they'll probably continue with the Greek Alphabet. They might add XYZ names tho, like those in the EPAC.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#204 Postby gfsperpendicular » Sat Sep 19, 2020 11:31 am

An unconventional argument against retiring Imelda would be that since it was named so close to landfall, many people probably never even knew its name.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#205 Postby Weather Dude » Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:03 pm

gfsperpendicular wrote:An unconventional argument against retiring Imelda would be that since it was named so close to landfall, many people probably never even knew its name.

Also it's an I name. We don't need any more I names that are a pain in the butt to track like Isaias lol
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#206 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:06 pm

Since so much has happened in a year and Imelda and Lorenzo especially may start to get forgotten, I think their chances are decreasing (but are certainly not zero - I would put Imelda at 35% and Lorenzo at 20%). Dorian is certainly a virtual lock from 2019, but IMO is the only name that gets retired from that year.

I think the WMO should have just quickly said Dorian was retired at the virtual meeting, but not decided on a replacement name (having TBA there).
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#207 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:08 pm

bob rulz wrote:As far as east coast damages, you're forgetting Irene. Isaias just seems like a "lesser" Irene (sorry, might be bad to use that word, just couldn't think of anything better). However, considering I don't live on the East Coast, maybe I'm underestimating Isaias's impact. It just seems like any hurricane striking the East Coast at the right angle could easily cause $5 billion in damages. If it had a high death toll I'd be more amenable to considering its retirement, but its preliminary damage total is only a little bit higher than Imelda and it has a pretty low death toll. No doubt $5 billion is a lot of damage, but given population densities in hurricane-prone areas of the U.S., I think $5 billion storms in the U.S. will start to become almost routine. I think retiring storms like Imelda and Isaias will cause some complications in the future. Sally might end up being in this category too, though its damages are still being calculated and it seems to have had a bigger impact on a specific area than Isaias's more generalized but widespread impact.

I certainly get the case for Isaias, and I think it's possible it gets retired, which is why I still have it at 40%. I just think it's not actually all that hard to get $5 billion in damages from an east coast-riding storm and its impact doesn't seem to quite reach that level for me. A lot will also depend on how the rest of the season goes - its chances go down with each major devastating storm we have, and especially if a devastating storm hits the east coast later this year.


I agree with Isaias being an Irene with much less flooding. The wind impacts were similar, but Irene was not extreme from a wind perspective. I have Isaias at 35% right now, but a truly devastating East Coast storm later in the year would knock that down.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#208 Postby Nuno » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:04 am

bob rulz wrote:As far as east coast damages, you're forgetting Irene. Isaias just seems like a "lesser" Irene (sorry, might be bad to use that word, just couldn't think of anything better). However, considering I don't live on the East Coast, maybe I'm underestimating Isaias's impact. It just seems like any hurricane striking the East Coast at the right angle could easily cause $5 billion in damages. If it had a high death toll I'd be more amenable to considering its retirement, but its preliminary damage total is only a little bit higher than Imelda and it has a pretty low death toll. No doubt $5 billion is a lot of damage, but given population densities in hurricane-prone areas of the U.S., I think $5 billion storms in the U.S. will start to become almost routine. I think retiring storms like Imelda and Isaias will cause some complications in the future. Sally might end up being in this category too, though its damages are still being calculated and it seems to have had a bigger impact on a specific area than Isaias's more generalized but widespread impact.

I certainly get the case for Isaias, and I think it's possible it gets retired, which is why I still have it at 40%. I just think it's not actually all that hard to get $5 billion in damages from an east coast-riding storm and its impact doesn't seem to quite reach that level for me. A lot will also depend on how the rest of the season goes - its chances go down with each major devastating storm we have, and especially if a devastating storm hits the east coast later this year.


At this stage, it seems so easy for any landfalling storm to rack up $5 billion in the Gulf as well. People have to begin psychologically adjusting their mental storm overton windows because the general public has been so overwhelmed by destructives storms in 20 years that many have simply been forgotten outside of the landfall area.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#209 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 27, 2020 1:09 am

Up to late September, here is what I have as my probability:

Arthur - 0%
Bertha - 0%
Cristobal - 2%
Dolly - 0%
Edouard - 0%
Fay - 2%
Gonzalo - 0%
Hanna - 10%
Isaias - 35%
Josephine - 0%
Kyle - 0%
Laura - 100%
Marco - 2%
Nana - 3%
Omar - 0%
Paulette - 5%
Rene - 0%
Sally - 70%
Teddy - 5%
Vicky - 0%
Wilfred - 0%

Alpha - 0%
Beta - 10%
Gamma - 3%
Delta - 40%
Epsilon - 0%
Zeta - 55%
Eta - 90%
Theta - 0%
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:54 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#210 Postby al78 » Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:54 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Cleveland Kent Evans wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:If I were to choose a replacement for Sally, my first choice would be Stefanie. Next best are Susan and Shelby.


Personally I'd go with Susan, Stella, or Shirley.


Names NOT available: Sandra, Sandy, Sara, Selma, Shary, Sonia


Why is Sandra not available? Is it because it is used in the NE Pacific basin?
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#211 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:51 am

al78 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Cleveland Kent Evans wrote:
Personally I'd go with Susan, Stella, or Shirley.


Names NOT available: Sandra, Sandy, Sara, Selma, Shary, Sonia


Why is Sandra not available? Is it because it is used in the NE Pacific basin?


Yes, that is precisely why Sandra, Selma, and Sonia are not available. You don't want a Hurricane Sandra to hit Mexico from the east and the next year another Hurricane Sandra to hit Mexico from the west. This might be too confusing for people listening to weather reports.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#212 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:05 am

If there is any Greek letter that could pass as a real name, it would be Delta and that storm might make a run for it.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#213 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:01 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:If there is any Greek letter that could pass as a real name, it would be Delta and that storm might make a run for it.



Delta is listed as a name on behindthename.com, so it could actually be a real name.

Zeta always seemed real-name-like to me too, although it's not listed on the site.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#214 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Tue Oct 06, 2020 3:17 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
HurricaneRyan wrote:If there is any Greek letter that could pass as a real name, it would be Delta and that storm might make a run for it.



Delta is listed as a name on behindthename.com, so it could actually be a real name.

Zeta always seemed real-name-like to me too, although it's not listed on the site.


According to Social Security Administration data, there were 135 girls born in the USA in 2019 named Delta.

There were also 10 girls named Alpha, 13 named Zeta, 6 named Xi, 18 named Chi, and 16 named Omega.

There were 67 boys named Alpha, 10 boys named Xi, 11 named Chi, and 52 named Omega.

The SSA data only contains names used for 5 or more babies of each designated gender, so there could be 4 or fewer that got other Greek letters as names.

I would assume that Xi and Chi are Chinese names which are not pronounced the same as the Greek letters.

I had a great-uncle by marriage named Alpha myself, but I am surprised at all the boys named Omega. That must be current in some subculture I don't have knowledge of.
Last edited by Cleveland Kent Evans on Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#215 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:07 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:If there is any Greek letter that could pass as a real name, it would be Delta and that storm might make a run for it.


It could also test the WMO's policies too if it is really bad.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#216 Postby GSBHurricane » Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:08 pm

The NHC came out with the stats for Isaias and Laura in the US. Isaias' US damage was $4.5 billion with 16 deaths, while Laura's was $14 billion and 42 deaths. Whatever doubts Laura had are gone. Isaias is still a coin toss though. No doubt it was destructive for the East Coast of the United States, but based on inflation, urbanization, and population, I agree with another poster that $4-5 billion storms will become the new normal and no longer benchmark storms for retirement based on damage alone. Even with $2-3 billion dollar storms, it's no longer a guarentee as we saw with Lee and Isaac. Same arguably holds true with Mexico. Alex in 2010 caused $1.5 billion in Mexico while Karl did $3.9 billion in damage that same year. On the other hand, Odile 2014 only caused $1.2 billion in damage. I suspect the reason that Alex and Karl weren't retired but Odile was is that Alex and Karl hit wealthier, more urbanized, and more populated parts of Mexico (Nuevo Leon and Veracruz, respectively) that can absorb the damage more easily than Baja California Sur, which is where Odile hit. And unlike Odile, neither Alex nor Karl was THAT historic for where they lived. Back to Isaias. Aside from increased wealth, urbanization, and population, I don't see many people talking about the storm. I'm from an area that was impacted by Isaias, but it seems to be less remembered than the likes of Gloria, Bob, Irene, and Sandy, which are all still talked about to this day. I'm not sure how much of it is due to the ongoing pandemic, but still. That's also another reason why Isaias is a coin flip rather than an a shoe-in for retirement.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#217 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:57 am

GSBHurricane wrote:The NHC came out with the stats for Isaias and Laura in the US. Isaias' US damage was $4.5 billion with 16 deaths, while Laura's was $14 billion and 42 deaths. Whatever doubts Laura had are gone. Isaias is still a coin toss though. No doubt it was destructive for the East Coast of the United States, but based on inflation, urbanization, and population, I agree with another poster that $4-5 billion storms will become the new normal and no longer benchmark storms for retirement based on damage alone. Even with $2-3 billion dollar storms, it's no longer a guarentee as we saw with Lee and Isaac. Same arguably holds true with Mexico. Alex in 2010 caused $1.5 billion in Mexico while Karl did $3.9 billion in damage that same year. On the other hand, Odile 2014 only caused $1.2 billion in damage. I suspect the reason that Alex and Karl weren't retired but Odile was is that Alex and Karl hit wealthier, more urbanized, and more populated parts of Mexico (Nuevo Leon and Veracruz, respectively) that can absorb the damage more easily than Baja California Sur, which is where Odile hit. And unlike Odile, neither Alex nor Karl was THAT historic for where they lived. Back to Isaias. Aside from increased wealth, urbanization, and population, I don't see many people talking about the storm. I'm from an area that was impacted by Isaias, but it seems to be less remembered than the likes of Gloria, Bob, Irene, and Sandy, which are all still talked about to this day. I'm not sure how much of it is due to the ongoing pandemic, but still. That's also another reason why Isaias is a coin flip rather than an a shoe-in for retirement.


I agree re: Isaias being a coin flip and Laura being an obvious and certain retirement.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#218 Postby SconnieCane » Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:04 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
I agree re: Isaias being a coin flip and Laura being an obvious and certain retirement.


I think Hanna, Isaias, and Sally, even Delta were it "retire-able"; while rough for the areas they hit, didn't have the kind of high death toll, will be talked about for decades type of impact that merits retirement. Laura did.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#219 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:26 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
I agree re: Isaias being a coin flip and Laura being an obvious and certain retirement.


I think Hanna, Isaias, and Sally, even Delta were it "retire-able"; while rough for the areas they hit, didn't have the kind of high death toll, will be talked about for decades type of impact that merits retirement. Laura did.

Yeah I agree with you. I think we are getting to the point now where it seems like every Cat 2+ hurricane that hits the CONUS gets retired in recent years... I understand storms like Harvey and Irma need to be retired, but I think we are getting to the point where storms that hit the CONUS are being retired too much. Right now I think Laura should be the only retired name this year. Storms like Imelda from last year should not be retired. I get storms are impactful, but that's what a TC is... If you get hit, you are going to get impacts unfortunately. We can't keep retiring storms that hit the CONUS and cause $1billion of damage because pretty much every storm that hits the CONUS does that amount of damage now. Although I will add that I wouldn't mind Isaias being retired just so we don't have to struggle to pronounce it correctly every time :lol:
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#220 Postby Nuno » Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:02 am

Even if the name Delta is somehow eligible for retirement, we're in agreement that it is highly unlikely a candidate for such?

I have down only Laura and Sally as storms likely to be retired.
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