Tropical Wave near Cabo Verde Islands (Is INVEST 94L)

[sma10]

UKMET westbound track 15N

https://i.imgur.com/LQnWy6O.png

Sure.. because it barely develops it.

these weak westbound systems are the most dangerous in terms of potential landfall....the big eastern and central Atlantic systems look cool on infrared, the weak ones cause more trouble as they approach 60W

Yeah, these to me are always the most curious posts during the season. "Aw, the models dont do anything with this wave" "the MDR sucks this season". This is often more dangerous. Really not a good thing for these waves to wait to develop at 60 and 70W

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%/60%

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located
about 100 miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is possible and a tropical depression could form while it
moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean through early next
week. Enhanced rainfall is possible across the Cabo Verde Islands
through early Friday as the disturbance moves through the region.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[jlauderdal]

A wave traveling due West in early September. What could go wrong?

there is a bunch lined up over africa too, plenty of firepower in the cards during the optimal part of the season, yikes..took the shutters down and fortified a few of the anchors that didnt meet my major hurricane standards

It's hard to imagine at least one of those waves won't do something big. My worry is they make it further west before doing it.

nhc 20/60 mandarin color alert ...they are liking the conditions as much as we do sans much model support but i would expect that to change in the next day on the modeling, the 12z euro is seeing something but struggling with it

[CyclonicFury]

And the 12z ECMWF is back to no development through hour 168...I'm really skeptical of the models showing the Atlantic going quiet after Gabrielle.

[jlauderdal]

And the 12z ECMWF is back to no development through hour 168...I'm really skeptical of the models showing the Atlantic going quiet after Gabrielle.

nhc going 20/60 mandarin is all you need to know what they think of the models for development,

[sma10]

We're getting to the time of year where occasionally climatology outperforms models for genesis. I think the wave near Cape Verde is an example as well as the wave near 50W. The Euro takes a piece of the latter wave and sends it slowly towards the Bahamas in time. Something to watch perhaps

[TheStormExpert]

And the 12z ECMWF is back to no development through hour 168...I'm really skeptical of the models showing the Atlantic going quiet after Gabrielle.

I’m skeptical too! Wasn’t the talk that the second week of September was originally when the Atlantic was supposed to wake up?

[SFLcane]

And the 12z ECMWF is back to no development through hour 168...I'm really skeptical of the models showing the Atlantic going quiet after Gabrielle.

Yeah the models have been inconsistent I'm sure the NHC will lower odds if they continue to show nothing

[AtlanticWind]

The models are underperforming on development this year for sure
They were real slow to show Dorian forming and even the other systems
we're shown as weak disturbances.

It makes you look at this wave and the wave around 50/55 a lot more closely
despite the models.

[AtlanticWind]

Maybe an invest soon so we get ships and HWRF / HMON model runs.

[AtlanticWind]

I think this is an invest now ,saw it on tropical tidbits

[cycloneye]

INVEST 94L is up