Tropical Wave near Cabo Verde Islands (Is INVEST 94L)

[TheStormExpert]

Didn’t the GFS drop Dorian for several runs after sniffing it out? Wouldn’t be surprised if it gets brought back at some point, after all it’s peak season.

[gatorcane]

Conditions look favorable so wouldn’t be surprised if models bring it back

[JPmia]

NHC likes it regardless of the models, environment looks favorable, models will probably come back in the next 24 hours, they have a habit of developing/dropping at long range..islands have to be on the lookout, tough to get one all the way across to the USA but its that time of the year..im taking shutters down today and leaving them stacked up by each window, long way to go in southern florida, October is prime time and we just had a major scare

I have a hunch that October could be busy for Florida this year because of the late start and lowering shear there so far. Back to topic though, let's see the next few runs because the models appear to have trouble or are more conservative in sniffing out genesis these days.

[SFLcane]

Nothing to see on the GFS this afternoon other then some weak waves that never amount to anything. I suspect development chances will be lowered again this afternoon.

[AutoPenalti]

Kind of interesting, GFS fails to develop it once again...

[jlauderdal]

NHC likes it regardless of the models, environment looks favorable, models will probably come back in the next 24 hours, they have a habit of developing/dropping at long range..islands have to be on the lookout, tough to get one all the way across to the USA but its that time of the year..im taking shutters down today and leaving them stacked up by each window, long way to go in southern florida, October is prime time and we just had a major scare

Time to get accordian shutters jlauderdal. Roland Steadham would be so dissappointed that you still dont have them yet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

panels until i go to my grave or just can't install them anymore

roland steadham was back in sofla a few years ago on channel 10 then disappeared again. THe good old days 2004 during hyperactivity..steadham, kamal, don noe...no kamal comments please, thanks

[cycloneye]

Down to 50%.

A tropical wave along the coast of Africa is forecast to emerge
over the eastern Atlantic later today. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for some slow development late this week,
and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression
over the weekend or early next week while it moves westward across
the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[AnnularCane]

Even though they lowered the percentages, the wording on the outlook doesn't really seem to be changing so far. Maybe it's just a temporary lowering?

[CaribJam]

For those of us in the Caribbean, we should watch this carefully, especially since the wording has changed to "while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean".

[Hurricaneman]

For those of us in the Caribbean, we should watch this carefully, especially since the wording has changed to "while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean".

Not to mention the Puerto Rico and Hispaniola

[sma10]

The new 12z euro looks like it's trying to spin it up again. Watch for further development on next runs

[chris_fit]

CMC develops it

[Frank2]

Don't sound too disappointed if it doesn't develop, everyone - half the South Florida population is suffering from near-miss or hit PTSD. Factoid: Do you know this was the 11th (that's 11th, folks) near miss or direct hit starting with Andrew in 1992?

The years were 1992, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004 (2), 2005 (2), 2016, 2017 and 2019 (so far). If I missed one (a huricane that required watches or wranings) please let me know.

In other words another round of near miss or hit PTSD every 2.5 years. That's enough to break anyone's bucket.

That's why people in Oklahoma move away after another F5 tornado, or another 6.5 California earthquake - a person can only take so much...

Though we are happy to have endured another near miss, only 100 miles away the death toll might be very high. Time will tell, but settlements on the east side of the Abacos are no longer, so it's not a good situation.

[BYG Jacob]

https://i.imgur.com/7M34Bo5.jpg

Like magic, the SAL is gone.

[Hammy]

Amazing how fast the models backed off of development as the wave emerged--the MDR itself still seems like there's quite the unfavorable background state at the moment.

[AtlanticWind]

Amazing how fast the models backed off of development as the wave emerged--the MDR itself still seems like there's quite the unfavorable background state at the moment.

Wouldn't look at the models that closely for genesis , missed Dorian completely
They are very sensitive to slight changes in conditions.

[sma10]

Don't sound too disappointed if it doesn;'t develop, folks - half the South Florida population is suffering from near-miss or hit PTSD. Factoid: Do you know this was the 11th (that's 11th, folks) near miss or direct hit starting with Andrew in 1992?

The years were 1992, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004 (2), 2005 (2), 2016, 2017 and 2019 (so far). If I missed one (a huricane that required watches or wranings) please let me know.

In other words another round of near miss or hit PTSD every 2.5 years. That's enough to break anyone's bucket.

That's why people in Oklahoma move away after another F5 tornado, or another 6.5 California earthquake - a person can only take so much...

Though we are happy to have endured another near miss, only 100 miles away the death toll might be very high. Time will tell, but settlements on the east side of the Abacos are no longer, so it's not a good situation.

I'm not sure if 1 threat every 2.5 years is extraordinarily unusual for So Florida in historical terms. Yes, from 1967 to 1991 it was ridiculously uneventful, but the decades prior to that suggested a lot of activity. So Florida sticks out like a sore thumb. Threats are going to occur regularly

[jlauderdal]

Even though they lowered the percentages, the wording on the outlook doesn't really seem to be changing so far. Maybe it's just a temporary lowering?

Avila write it?

[jlauderdal]

For those of us in the Caribbean, we should watch this carefully, especially since the wording has changed to "while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean".

Energy waiting to develop beyond 60w is the most dangerous for landfall probs

[AnnularCane]

Even though they lowered the percentages, the wording on the outlook doesn't really seem to be changing so far. Maybe it's just a temporary lowering?

Avila write it?

Nope. Blake and Hagen (whoever that is).