Tropical Wave near Cabo Verde Islands (Is INVEST 94L)

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands by the end of the
week. Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible
over the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[StPeteMike]

The majority of the model runs on this one has it heading WNW through the Atlantic and close to Puerto Rico this weekend. They strangely weaken it to almost a minimal TS by the time of the end of the runs, but I highly doubt that will occur.

[Kazmit]

06z GFS bombs it out while recurving.

[hohnywx]

Up to 30% as of 8 AM

4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible late
this week or over the weekend while it moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[HurricaneEric]

Up to 30% as of 8 AM

4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible late
this week or over the weekend while it moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Here’s the map to go along side it. This is the one that looks to make it more west potentially.




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[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like this might be our "I" storm if 91L, 92L, and 93L all develop.

[HurricaneEric]

Euro and GFS are pretty bullish on this one. Here’s where they have it at hour 240.

Euro


GFS


Seems like on Euro that Invest 91L (Fernand?) will create a weakness for this to go OTS. GFS, on the other hand, takes this further west but looks to get picked up by another weakness in super long range. Likely recurve scenarios but obviously still too far out in time.


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[DioBrando]

Looks like this might be our "I" storm if 91L, 92L, and 93L all develop.

Calling it: this is gonna be the H storm

[hurricaneCW]

Models hint at a pattern change with broad east coast ridging, would make it more likely for one of these east Atlantic storms to come here.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Models hint at a pattern change with broad east coast ridging, would make it more likely for one of these east Atlantic storms to come here.

I don't know, looks like a lot of troughs to me.

Zero point in even considering that far out though. The WSW bend in the track the GFS has been showing is interesting though.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or
over the weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[gatorcane]

Models hint at a pattern change with broad east coast ridging, would make it more likely for one of these east Atlantic storms to come here.

I don't know, looks like a lot of troughs to me.

Zero point in even considering that far out though. The WSW bend in the track the GFS has been showing is interesting though.

The ones that bends SW in the MDR can sometimes be problematic down the road. I know many have Dorian fatigue including me but Looks like another one to watch.

[CyclonicFury]

Interestingly the 12z ECMWF is much weaker with this wave through hour 144.

[AutoPenalti]

That WSW dip reminds me a little bit of Irma...

[cycloneye]

Interestingly the 12z ECMWF is much weaker with this wave through hour 144.

In fact,is all the run that is weak.

[gatorcane]

Weak would mean more west.

[hurricaneCW]

Models hint at a pattern change with broad east coast ridging, would make it more likely for one of these east Atlantic storms to come here.

I don't know, looks like a lot of troughs to me.

Zero point in even considering that far out though. The WSW bend in the track the GFS has been showing is interesting though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=258

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or
over the weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[gatorcane]

Need to watch this given time of year and the fact it probably won’t develop quickly and recurve sooner. GFS sends this far west before recurving in the long-range, probably typical recurve bias with the model.

[Kat5]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

Might be an out to sea scenario just by looking at the global models mean.