Tropical Wave near Cabo Verde Islands (Is INVEST 94L)

[TheStormExpert]

That's the wave behind it.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS stretches it out and creates a back-end LL vort in the mid MDR.
Runs this thru the Carib and spins up in the GOM.

[SFLcane]

06Z GFS stretches it out and creates a back-end LL vort in the mid MDR.
Runs this thru the Carib and spins up in the GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/PsCgsdZ.png

GFS has a different wave it doesn’t develop the first one much.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS stretches it out and creates a back-end LL vort in the mid MDR.
Runs this thru the Carib and spins up in the GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/PsCgsdZ.png

GFS has a different wave it doesn’t develop the first one much.

OK, looking at it more, I agree.
Thanks

[GCANE]

CMC is the more typical scenario.
Develops it around the 50-yard line and heads to east Carib.

[gatorcane]

CMC is the more typical scenario.
Develops it around the 50-yard line and heads to east Carib.

Heading west:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A little more support down the road for this system from the 00z ECMWF/CMC/UKMET out in the MDR. GFS more interested in the wave behind it.

[jlauderdal]

none of this on again off again stuff from the models is surprising, what we know is there is a train of waves rolling off africa, the conditions look favorable for development...a major hurricane approaching the islands in the next two weeks wouldnt be a shock at all, i put it at better than 50/50

[GCANE]

UKMET westbound track 15N

[AutoPenalti]

UKMET westbound track 15N

https://i.imgur.com/LQnWy6O.png

Very weak development.

[SFLcane]

UKMET westbound track 15N

https://i.imgur.com/LQnWy6O.png

Sure.. because it barely develops it.

[ouragans]

3. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located
about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[jlauderdal]

UKMET westbound track 15N

https://i.imgur.com/LQnWy6O.png

Sure.. because it barely develops it.

these weak westbound systems are the most dangerous in terms of potential landfall....the big eastern and central Atlantic systems look cool on infrared, the weak ones cause more trouble as they approach 60W

[RL3AO]

A wave traveling due West in early September. What could go wrong?

[jlauderdal]

A wave traveling due West in early September. What could go wrong?

there is a bunch lined up over africa too, plenty of firepower in the cards during the optimal part of the season, yikes..took the shutters down and fortified a few of the anchors that didnt meet my major hurricane standards

[RL3AO]

A wave traveling due West in early September. What could go wrong?

there is a bunch lined up over africa too, plenty of firepower in the cards during the optimal part of the season, yikes..took the shutters down and fortified a few of the anchors that didnt meet my major hurricane standards

It's hard to imagine at least one of those waves won't do something big. My worry is they make it further west before doing it.

[jlauderdal]

A wave traveling due West in early September. What could go wrong?

there is a bunch lined up over africa too, plenty of firepower in the cards during the optimal part of the season, yikes..took the shutters down and fortified a few of the anchors that didnt meet my major hurricane standards

It's hard to imagine at least one of those waves won't do something big. My worry is they make it further west before doing it.

yep, at least 50/50 IMO that we get a major hurricane threat to land in the next few weeks

[Patrick99]

A wave traveling due West in early September. What could go wrong?

there is a bunch lined up over africa too, plenty of firepower in the cards during the optimal part of the season, yikes..took the shutters down and fortified a few of the anchors that didnt meet my major hurricane standards

I strongly suspect that there's a good chance of having more issues the next couple months.....not getting rid of my hurricane supplies just yet. Those waves that chill out over half the ocean while moving westward, to possibly finding better conditions further west, are always of special concern.

[TheStormExpert]

A wave traveling due West in early September. What could go wrong?

there is a bunch lined up over africa too, plenty of firepower in the cards during the optimal part of the season, yikes..took the shutters down and fortified a few of the anchors that didnt meet my major hurricane standards

I strongly suspect that there's a good chance of having more issues the next couple months.....not getting rid of my hurricane supplies just yet. Those waves that chill out over half the ocean while moving westward, to possibly finding better conditions further west, are always of special concern.

Unfortunately I feel too that Florida is not done yet with the hurricane threats, just my gut feeling. HOPEFULLY I’m wrong as a storm approaching Florida from the east and south would potentially affect those in the NW Bahamas affected severely by Dorian.

[Patrick99]

Don't sound too disappointed if it doesn;'t develop, folks - half the South Florida population is suffering from near-miss or hit PTSD. Factoid: Do you know this was the 11th (that's 11th, folks) near miss or direct hit starting with Andrew in 1992?

The years were 1992, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004 (2), 2005 (2), 2016, 2017 and 2019 (so far). If I missed one (a huricane that required watches or wranings) please let me know.

In other words another round of near miss or hit PTSD every 2.5 years. That's enough to break anyone's bucket.

That's why people in Oklahoma move away after another F5 tornado, or another 6.5 California earthquake - a person can only take so much...

Though we are happy to have endured another near miss, only 100 miles away the death toll might be very high. Time will tell, but settlements on the east side of the Abacos are no longer, so it's not a good situation.

I'm not sure if 1 threat every 2.5 years is extraordinarily unusual for So Florida in historical terms. Yes, from 1967 to 1991 it was ridiculously uneventful, but the decades prior to that suggested a lot of activity. So Florida sticks out like a sore thumb. Threats are going to occur regularly

What often strikes me when I go back and look at all the historical tracks is how often the Keys and SE/SW Florida were hit from the south, up over Cuba and/or via the Yucatan channel. Outside of Wilma, Charley and Irene, all of which occurred within 6 years of each other, we have not seen any of that in modern times......beyond those you'd have to go all the way back to Cleo and King.