Trough of Low Pressure north of the Greater Antilles (Is INVEST 95L)

[northjaxpro]

The 12Z ICON is still another of its runs with weak surface cyclogenesis over the Bahamas around Thu night fwiw. I know it is hard to trust this model. That’s why I said fwiw. The GFS and Euro recently haven’tbeen doing as much. Let’s see if the 12Z GFS continues that way or else if it does something like the ICON.

I forgot to check the recent UKMET runs. Has it showed any more on this system?

1. Hey Jax. I haven't seen the 12Z yet, but the 0Z has no sfc low til a weak one forms in the NW GOM.

2. The 12Z Euro still has pretty much nothing in the way of a sfc low. However, it still has plentiful and beneficial rain for FL into SE GA for Fri-Sun.

I am just getting here at my office. Thanks Larry. I just saw the new EURO run. Surprised EURO 12Z run much weaker with the vorticity than last nights 00Z run. The 00Z run was much stronger. But, good news though as we do not need any stronger TCs obviously in these parts. But, THIS CAN and probably will change! Stay vigilant!

[robbielyn]

i really need this pesky little buzzard egg to leave the gom alone. i’m going to st pete and siesta key beaches all next week. don’t want to be rained on the whole time. there’s nothing beneficial with these rains as we are over our budget for the year.

[northjaxpro]

850 mb vorticity is GRADUALLY increasing and consolidating just near and just north of the Mona Passage

[GCANE]

Convection picking up along the strong wave axis north of Hispaniola.

A couple cells with low shear showing cold cloud tops and heavy lightning.

Not bad for this time of day.

[tpr1967]

GFS,GFS-legacy and CMC all showing little to no development. While Euro, NAM32k and ICON show some possible development. The difference I see is that the GFS and CMC Solutions show more 250MB level winds coming straight out of the west over the Bahamas. While the Euro,NAM32K and ICON show more upper level ridging. Maybe that's why those models are coming out with more development.

[AtlanticWind]

Showing some signs of organization today
Will see if this continues tonight and into tuesday

[GCANE]

Strong convection starting to fire off.
Appears to have some rotation with it.

[AtlanticWind]

Always worried about these small systems spinning up quickly in this area
at the peak of hurricane season.

I think it is still unlikely looking at the models , but certainly possible.

[northjaxpro]

Now, things are perculating with this feature, as I suspected it would earlier this morning today when it was bare of convection .

Now, shear has dropped off considerably and now we are seeing some real cold convective tops firing now. Time for.this to get tagged as an invest with tonight's developments.


This system COULD ramp up quickly. It would not shock me in the least.

[Aric Dunn]

Now, things are perculating with this feature, as I suspected it would earlier this morning today when it was bare of convection .

Now, shear has dropped off considerably and now we are seeing some real cold convective tops firing now. Time for.this to get tagged as an invest with tonight's developments.


This system COULD ramp up quickly. It would not shock me in the least.

yeah, and if you use shortwave loop you can see the initial signature of a circ between the deep convection and the north coast of Hati.

a couple of weak curved low level clouds lines.

[LarryWx]

I don't know whether I should try to read much into this, but the 18Z Euro ens is the most active of the last 4 runs at least coming into FL as it appears to have 2 members out of 51 with a solid TS hitting Cape Canaveral Fri afternoon/night vs none that strong on the 3 prior runs. I'm sure there are weaker members also hitting FL but I can't see them on this private source. Does anyone else have a link to the 18Z Euro ens?

[sma10]

Always worried about these small systems spinning up quickly in this area
at the peak of hurricane season.

I think it is still unlikely looking at the models , but certainly possible.

I try not to put too much stock into "signs", but didnt the 2007 version of Humberto form like 50 miles from the TX coast, yet still reach hurricane status?

[northjaxpro]

Always worried about these small systems spinning up quickly in this area
at the peak of hurricane season.

I think it is still unlikely looking at the models , but certainly possible.

I try not to put too much stock into "signs", but didnt the 2007 version of Humberto form like 50 miles from the TX coast, yet still reach hurricane status?

Yes, it became a hurricane all within 24 hours that season in the NW Gulf.

[Hurricaneman]

This honestly seems to be coming together faster than the models are indicating, looks to have some sort of surface reflection which none of the models have with this and has a possible good outflow channel from the ULL NNE of Puerto Rico

[Hammy]

Of course ASCAT missed it entirely.

[northjaxpro]

I am very surprised that the NHC has been slow to tag this an invest as of yet. It looks pretty good early this morning as convection has been firing and maintaining all throughout the night into this morning. There is an ULL just northeast of the Abacos in the Central Bahamas, which is imparting some 20 KT SW shear on the system early this morning. However, the ULL well off to the northeast of this disturbance is also helping to ventilate the disturbance as well.

Looking at satellite imagery currently , I am seeing some spin and rotation in the vicinity of around 22.5 N 73 W, near the vicinity of the Turks and Caicos of the extreme Southeastern Bahamas. It is probably mid level, but if it is, it will not be much longer to have a surface reflection here , especially with convection persisting.

Conditions are marginal at best currently, but as this distubance moves farther w/nw into Bahamas through Wednesday, shear will become lighter and conditions COULD allow this to spin up quickly before approach to the Florida East Coast by early Thursday.

Conditions really could get potentially more conducive for development once this disturbance crosses Florida and emerges into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

[crownweather]

06Z GFS finally picks this up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it has dropped development of both waves between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

[northjaxpro]

06Z GFS finally picks this up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it has dropped development of both waves between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

Yep. 06Z GFS shows 1006 mb TS making landfsll on the MS Coast Sunday night.

Be careful though. This could be end up being a sttonger cyclone than what GFS is depicting imo.

[ronjon]

I am very surprised that the NHC has been slow to tag this an invest as of yet. It looks pretty good early this morning as convection has been firing and maintaining all throughout the night into this morning. There is an ULL just northeast of the Abacos in the Central Bahamas, which is imparting some 20 KT SW shear on the system early this morning. However, the ULL well off to the northeast of this disturbance is also helping to ventilate the disturbance as well.

Looking at satellite imagery currently , I am seeing some spin and rotation in the vicinity of around 22.5 N 73 W, near the vicinity of the Turks and Caicos of the extreme Southeastern Bahamas. It is probably mid level, but if it is, it will not be much longer to have a surface reflection here , especially with convection persisting.

Conditions are marginal at best currently, but as this distubance moves farther w/nw into Bahamas through Wednesday, shear will become lighter and conditions COULD allow this to spin up quickly before approach to the Florida East Coast by early Thursday.

Conditions really could get potentially more conducive for development once this disturbance crosses Florida and emerges into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

Yeah 06z GFS now develops it in the GOM (albeit weakly at 1008 mb) and brings it north into the NW Florida panhandle late this weekend.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019091006&fh=6

[drezee]

It is attempting to closeoff just N of Haiti right now:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,12.085