Tropical Wave in Central Tropical Atlantic (Is INVEST 97L)

[cycloneye]

And we have another player in the game

GENESIS023, AL, L, , , , , 76, 2019, DB, O, 2019091400, 9999999999, , 023, , , , GENESIS, , AL762019

What exactly is this? Has this been labeled by the nhc as an invest? AL75 does not mean much.

Those are tests when they are AL 76 etc and are precursors of the real deal and those are the invests.

[gatorcane]

This one looks very promising. Wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up in the Caribbean with a more west track similar to the JMA prediction.

[USTropics]

On the 18z surface analysis, there are 3 tropical waves present.

from west to east: former 94L is to the far west at 14N, 55W; 96L (formerly AL74/GEN021) 18z track from NHC is at 13.5N, 40.9W; internal tracking of AL75/GEN022 is eastern most wave. There's also a disturbance of non-TW origins in-between 96L and AL75, which seems to have been labeled AL76/GEN023 now.

An area of disturbed weather has developed between two tropical
waves, about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
This disturbance may merge with a tropical wave approaching from
the east over the weekend. However, some development of this system
is possible through early next week as long as it remains distinct
from the wave. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly westward.

[cycloneye]

There's humor going on about this on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/statu ... 5059414016

[hurricanes1234]

It's a love triangle.

[GeneratorPower]

It's a love triangle.

Whoa...just popped in for an update on the wave and suddenly...Ménage a Tropics

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave is located about 600 miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while it moves westward across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

TWD:

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W from 05N-16N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is well depicted in satellite
imagery and TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from
07N-13N between 30W-38W. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while it moves westward across the
tropical Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of disturbed weather is located about 650 miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves westward
across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

The area of disturbed weather that was located midway between the
Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands has merged with the
easternmost tropical wave mentioned above. Development of the
original disturbance is no longer anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[SFLcane]

Well thankfully it’s looking like Humberto will drag these waves out to sea and keep very minimal ridging across the tropical atl.

[abajan]

Comparing this graphic with that in the 2 AM TWO, it seems like its forward speed is expected to decelerate.

[Hammy]

Given the models are useless as indicators, as well as the continuing poor conditions out in the MDR, it wouldn't be surprising if nothing comes from any of these waves.

[CyclonicFury]

Given the models are useless as indicators, as well as the continuing poor conditions out in the MDR, it wouldn't be surprising if nothing comes from any of these waves.

The difference this time is the models have become more bullish after splashdown, unlike 94L where models essentially dropped it right after splashdown. Ex-96L likely won't develop due to strong shear from Humberto.

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of disturbed weather is located about 750 miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves
westward across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[CyclonicFury]

18z GFS much weaker through 72 hours.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS much weaker through 72 hours.

In fact nothing. Only 6 hours ago at 12z it had a strong hurricane.

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of disturbed weather is located over the central
tropical Atlantic. This disturbance is currently disorganized and
only slow development, if any, is anticipated during the next day or
two. Conditions are then forecast to be conducive for gradual
development through the middle of next week and a tropical
depression could form while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Hammy]

GFS shows it being unwound as so many other waves have done this season.

[abajan]

An elongated area of disturbed weather is located over the central
tropical Atlantic. This disturbance is currently disorganized and
only slow development, if any, is anticipated during the next day
or two. Conditions are then forecast to be conducive for gradual
development through the middle of the week and a tropical
depression could form while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of disturbed weather is located over the central
tropical Atlantic. Shower activity remains disorganized and only
slow development, if any, is anticipated during the next day or two.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for gradual development through the middle of the week,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.