Disturbed weather in GOM (Is INVEST 98L)

[cycloneye]

A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico is primarily associated with a upper-level low pressure
area. Only slow development of this system is likely during the
next couple of days. However, conditions could become more
conducive for development early next week as the system moves over
the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[galaxy401]

Like we need more Xs to watch for.

[TexWx]

[tailgater]

I was thinking we ought to start a thread on this area.
So it looks like the NHC is watching more of the area just east of the Upper low more than any transition of the Uppper Low itself. Last evening I was noticing inflow starting to get pulled into the area where they made the X and it was refiring , so we need to watch for some pressure drops.

[SoupBone]

No invest?

[GCANE]

Shear induced convection has created a large updraft area.
Seeing some LL convergence around the Keys.
Pressure in the Keys at 1011mb,

[tropicwatch]

Starting to see some rotation on radar in the area of the Dry Tortugas.

[cycloneye]

A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico is primarily associated with a upper-level low pressure
area. Only slow development of this system is likely during the
next couple of days. However, conditions could become more
conducive for development early next week as the system moves
over the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

No invest?

They are doing tests now before the invest is up and that may come anytime.

GENESIS024, AL, L, , , , , 77, 2019, DB, O, 2019091406, 9999999999, , 024, , , , GENESIS, , AL772019

[SoupBone]

Where's wxman57 with his thoughts, this is his neck of the woods.

[wxman57]

Where's wxman57 with his thoughts, this is his neck of the woods.

My thoughts are that it's an upper-level low over tropical waters. Given a few days, it might have a shot at developing. Should move inland into Texas (I hope - we need rain) by Monday morning. Not too concerned about it but keeping an eye on it. When does Stewart work this weekend?

[northjaxpro]

Yeah visible satellite imagery and Key West radar indeed is showing rotation down in that region of the Dry Tortugas. Interesting developments down that way this morning.

[tropicwatch]

Invest #'s seem to be slow coming up. If not this area in the Gulf of Mexico, surely the tw in the eastern Atlantic will get one.

[northjaxpro]

Invest #'s seem to be slow coming up. If not this area in the Gulf of Mexico, surely the tw in the eastern Atlantic will get one.

Well, NHC has this GOM disturbance up to 30% now in 120 hours. Looking at this morning's developments, it was a wise move by NHC to bump up the development chances here.

This will be designated very soon as an invest probably later today by NHC, and the far Eastern Atlantic wave eventually as well by tomorrow.

[SoupBone]

Invest #'s seem to be slow coming up. If not this area in the Gulf of Mexico, surely the tw in the eastern Atlantic will get one.

Well, NHC has this GOM disturbance up to 30% now in 120 hours. Looking at this morning's developments, it was a wise move by NHC to bump up the development chances here.

This will be designated very soon as an invest probably later today by NHC, and the far Eastern Atlantic wave eventually as well by tomorrow.

Or maybe not. If like wxman57 says it's moving inland by Monday morning, there isn't much time for it to really do much but give South central Texas some much needed rain.

[AnnularCane]

Like we need more Xs to watch for.

At least this one's easier to distinguish from the MDR triplets.

[stormlover2013]

Invest will be coming soon

[northjaxpro]

Invest #'s seem to be slow coming up. If not this area in the Gulf of Mexico, surely the tw in the eastern Atlantic will get one.

Well, NHC has this GOM disturbance up to 30% now in 120 hours. Looking at this morning's developments, it was a wise move by NHC to bump up the development chances here.

This will be designated very soon as an invest probably later today by NHC, and the far Eastern Atlantic wave eventually as well by tomorrow.

Or maybe not. If like wxman57 says it's moving inland by Monday morning, there isn't much time for it to really do much but give South central Texas some much needed rain.

This is true. Time is not on the side of this disturbance, but things can rapidly change in the GOM (i.e. Humberto 2007) because this is in the Gulf and we are seeing something going on with low barometric pressures on the tail end of that sheared induced convective band near the Dry Tortugas this morning. I think they will tag it. We will see.

[Steve]

Still no model support for this outside of the RGEM which barely wants to close it off at the end of its run. not much but some squalls offshore and maybe into Texas after?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1406&fh=19

[Frank P]

My best guess for center development, if any, would be in the area circled in red... obvious a low level SW to NE flow into the building convection...
https://imgur.com/a/p1TJZ9H