Tropical Wave emerging from West Africa (Is INVEST 90L)

[otowntiger]

I presume the probabilities remain high that this one and any others forming in this area will recurve well out in the Atlantic with the current synoptic pattern. That's what our local Met seems to be saying. He showed a graphic that had it setting up for a big and wide right turn. It showed the Bermuda High only going out to about half way in the Atlantic and a semi permanent trough set up over the east coast providing that proverbial poleward highway. Does that make sense or is that just wishful thinking? It would seem to be in line with climatology this time of year.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I presume the probabilities remain high that this one and any others forming in this area will recurve well out in the Atlantic with the current synoptic pattern. That's what our local Met seems to be saying. He showed a graphic that had it setting up for a big and wide right turn. It showed the Bermuda High only going out to about half way in the Atlantic and a semi permanent trough set up over the east coast providing that proverbial poleward highway. Does that make sense or is that just wishful thinking? It would seem to be in line with climatology this time of year.

Yes, not only is it late in the year but it's also likely Jerry will create enough of a weakness to recurve it too.

[tomatkins]

I presume the probabilities remain high that this one and any others forming in this area will recurve well out in the Atlantic with the current synoptic pattern. That's what our local Met seems to be saying. He showed a graphic that had it setting up for a big and wide right turn. It showed the Bermuda High only going out to about half way in the Atlantic and a semi permanent trough set up over the east coast providing that proverbial poleward highway. Does that make sense or is that just wishful thinking? It would seem to be in line with climatology this time of year.

Yes, not only is it late in the year but it's also likely Jerry will create enough of a weakness to recurve it too.

If anything the models are pointing to it recurving so early that it becomes a significant threat to the western Azores.

[CyclonicFury]

Could be a long-track hurricane that produces a lot of ACE, but it should recurve well east of the CONUS. Global models often develop these systems too soon so I think it will probably develop on Monday or Tuesday next week.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[ouragans]

When was the last time there was an Invest over Africa?

[Buck]

When was the last time there was an Invest over Africa?

It’s not super uncommon.

[Abdullah]

When was the last time there was an Invest over Africa?

Like last week.

[ouragans]

When was the last time there was an Invest over Africa?

Like last week.

It was not an Invest. No best track

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[storminabox]

I’m very excited to track this system, as it looks like it will become an intense hurricane that racks up a lot of ACE and doesn’t effect any land areas. I’ve been waiting for a storm like this.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Abdullah]

When Invest 90L?

[cycloneye]

When Invest 90L?

There is no timetable for a invest to be up no matter the % it has so is a matter of waiting.

[Hurricaneman]

When Invest 90L?

Probably when it’s off of Africa

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
overnight and on Sunday. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development of the wave once it moves over water, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during
the early or middle part of next week while moving westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

There it is getting wet.

[CrazyC83]

The question: how quickly does this develop? I wonder if there is already a closed low.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 90L is up