How many ACE units will Lorenzo get?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 22, 2019 7:18 pm

This is an interesting question as the North Atlantic looks to surpass the 100 ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) units to help the basin not end the season below average on the ACE front.As of this post,the basin has 80.6 ACE units per CSU. The disturbance 90L that emerged Africa is poised to be very strong according to the models. The poll will close on Wednesday at 8:18 PM EDT.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:10 pm

Only 20 votes? Come and vote on this important question and you have until next Wednesday at 8:18 PM EDT to do so.

1900hurricane · #3 Postby **1900hurricane** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:08 pm

Probably about a 30 ACEer. Think I selected just under in the actual poll yesterday, but I'd probably go on the plus side of that right now.

Astromanía · #4 Postby **Astromanía** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:27 pm

Due to the expecting recurve that will provoque probably increment on moving speed I think that this getting close to Dorian's ACE is very unlikely, so I will go with 26-30 ACE and maybe I'm optimistic? I don´t know, models are very bullish on this so maybe I'm right and this will end getting 26-30 or even more ACE

Emmett_Brown · #5 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Tue Sep 24, 2019 2:16 pm

Well, the Euro keeps Lorenzo around for the next 10 days, so I bet >30

#6 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue Sep 24, 2019 2:43 pm

I voted greater than 30 for sure.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:23 pm

Those who voted 26-30 are looking good after what has transpired with Lorenzo. As of 11 PM advisory is at 19.2 ACE units.

Kazmit · #8 Postby **Kazmit** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:43 pm

Less than 4 units to go for those (including me) who voted for 31+ units.

#9 Postby **plasticup** » Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:39 am

ACE 28 at the moment. Only 48 hours or so left to reach 31. Will probably make it but less comfortably than I expected.

#10 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:46 am

I think Lorenzo gets above 30 like I voted previously on this poll.

1900hurricane · #11 Postby **1900hurricane** » Tue Oct 01, 2019 10:41 am

ACE as of 12Z is 29.485. It has >30 in the bag.

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:44 pm

As of the 5 PM advisory the ACE count is 30.2.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:48 am

The final number of ACE for Lorenzo (Subject to minor changes on TCR) is 31.6 units. It could have been up more as it began slow in the first advisories. 14 members nailed the range of ACE in the poll.