Area of Disturbed Weather in the Bay of Campeche

[northjaxpro]

The area of weak Low Pressure, which had moved off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula back on Wednesday, is bouncing back. The area encountered some hefty shear the past couple of days, but now is in a much better environment as it enters into the BOC.

Time running out for it to develop into anything very significant, but a TD is still a possibility prior to this area moving ashore across NE Mecico this weekend.

[La Sirena]

Wow, that spun up quick. Looks interesting.

Edit to add: I saw that over the Keys yesterday and noted it as we used to live there. Looks crazy today.

[lrak]

Shear is increasing to its west but after that little window the GOM looks like it may allow possible development.

[alan1961]

TropicalTidbits have the manual floater on it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[northjaxpro]

ICON closes off this disturbance just northwest of the Yucatan northern coast within 24 hours, then organizing into a 1010 mb Low Pressure area in 48 hours.


ICON tracks it very slowly northwest through the Gulf to a landfall on the upper TX coast by 12Z Saturday morning at 1010 mb.

12Z GFS shows vorticity tracking w/nw to the Western GOM, but does not close it off this run.

[Bostonriff]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

(Hit Play button lower-right.)

[northjaxpro]

Already have a thread on this, which I started just a couple of hours ago.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

They give it a 10/20 chance

[StruThiO]

A broad and elongated area of low pressure is located near the
northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. This system is currently
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeast
Gulf of Mexico. Some gradual development of the disturbance is
possible while it moves slowly westward across the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico during the next several days before it reaches the
northeast coast of Mexico late Friday or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[northjaxpro]

2:00 a.m. Tropical Weather Outlook

A weak area of Low Pressure centered near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a small area of disorgamized cloudiness and showers. Some slow development of the Low is possible while it moves slowly westward across the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico late Friday or Saturday.

Formation chance through 48 hours: Low : 10%
Formation chance through 5 days: Low: 20%

Forecaster: Blake

[ATCcane]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Sat loop of the area.

[northjaxpro]

Nice Hot Tower showing on visible satellite at 22.3 N 91.2 W

[lrak]

Nice Hot Tower showing on visible satellite at 22.3 N 91.2 W

I was just about to post that...and if it heads towards NE Mexico maybe we'll get some good rains in S TX.

[northjaxpro]

Still at 10% and 20% at 2.p.m.TWO

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure centered near the north coast of the
Yucatan peninsula is producing a small area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of the low is
possible while it moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph across the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. The
disturbance is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico
late Friday or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$

[Astromanía]

It would be nice some rain here, after Fernand there wasn't been rain in NE Mexico and without cold fronts the rain will calm down the heat

[Monsoonjr99]

Following Fernand and Imelda, it seems the GoM is primed for quick spinups this year. I'd give this disturbance a higher chance than 20% imo. The BoC is also known for its rapid development of TCs.

Then again, the BoC has been quiet this year and 91L back in June showed that. Of course, late September is way more favorable than June and this isn't a broad CAG like last time.

[northjaxpro]

Still disorganized, but convection is trying to build back this afternoon as it slowly moves westward.

[MGC]

This might surprise a few people. Convection firing near the low. I expect odds to increase a good bit in the next day or so......MGC

[northjaxpro]

If this system can develop into a named storm the next few days before landfall in Mexico this weekend, it will tie the record for most named storms with 8 in a month across the North Atlantic basin. That would be just amazing!!

[lrak]

That shear is probably going to rip it apart.