Surface trough over the southern GOM

[LarryWx]

Some of the models, including the GFS, have been trending toward a piece of the current NW Caribbean disturbance breaking off and moving to the NE over Cuba to E of the Bahamas before getting trapped by a stronger upper ridge on more recent runs just off the SE US. A weak surface low then forms and goes toward FL before recurving. The 12Z GFS only barely misses FL
due to a stronger 500 mb ridge to its north pushing it further west. This isn’t at all a big deal now and very likely will never be a big deal due to shear but may still be interesting to follow. Check out the trend of the last few GFS runs and note the trend of a strengthening 500 mb ridge just off the SE US and a weak sfc low getting closer to FL:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019100212/gfs_z500_mslp_watl_18.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019100206/gfs_z500_mslp_watl_19.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019100200/gfs_z500_mslp_watl_20.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019100118/gfs_z500_mslp_watl_21.png

Further to the above, the 12z Euro has a very weak low moving NW to Cape Canaveral at hour 126.

[Dean4Storms]

Some of the models, including the GFS, have been trending toward a piece of the current NW Caribbean disturbance breaking off and moving to the NE over Cuba to E of the Bahamas before getting trapped by a stronger upper ridge on more recent runs just off the SE US. A weak surface low then forms and goes toward FL before recurving. The 12Z GFS only barely misses FL
due to a stronger 500 mb ridge to its north pushing it further west. This isn’t at all a big deal now and very likely will never be a big deal due to shear but may still be interesting to follow. Check out the trend of the last few GFS runs and note the trend of a strengthening 500 mb ridge just off the SE US and a weak sfc low getting closer to FL:

Seeing spin at what appears lower levels north of the eastern end of Cuba, between Cuba and the Bahamas there within deep convection.

[northjaxpro]

Some of the models, including the GFS, have been trending toward a piece of the current NW Caribbean disturbance breaking off and moving to the NE over Cuba to E of the Bahamas before getting trapped by a stronger upper ridge on more recent runs just off the SE US. A weak surface low then forms and goes toward FL before recurving. The 12Z GFS only barely misses FL
due to a stronger 500 mb ridge to its north pushing it further west. This isn’t at all a big deal now and very likely will never be a big deal due to shear but may still be interesting to follow. Check out the trend of the last few GFS runs and note the trend of a strengthening 500 mb ridge just off the SE US and a weak sfc low getting closer to FL:

Seeing spin at what appears lower levels north of the eastern end of Cuba, between Cuba and the Bahamas there within deep convection.

Yeah, I have been monitoring that area as it appears to be a piece of energy may be breaking away from that shear zone, which has been in place from the SW Bahamas southwest to the NW Caribbean. As Larry mentioned, GFS and EURO in todays runs show some type of Low Pressure developing in the vicinity of the Bahamas and during the next few days.

[Nimbus]

The Yucatan channel buoy 42056 is reporting a surface pressure of 1006 mb's.
Still an ENE fetch so no circulation center has passed west of there.

[northjaxpro]

1008 mb Low Pressure analyzed approximately 100 miles south of the Western tip of Cuba this morning
----------------------------------------------------------------


NHC TWD 8 a.m. 10/3/19

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 19N85W in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from the low
pressure center into the Yucatan Channel. It is possible that
some of the precipitation that is in the SE corner of the Gulf
of Mexico may be related to the 1008 mb low pressure center.

The current 1008 mb NW Caribbean Sea low pressure center will
drift NW, and open into a trough by Friday night, and move into
the Yucatan Peninsula. A cold front will move into the northern
Gulf of Mexico on Monday night.

[LarryWx]

Per today's model runs, the chance of any weak low making it back as far west as FL has diminished vs those runs of yesterday that were trending toward FL, including that one Euro run actually hitting Cape Canaveral. Since then, they've been trending back to well offshore.

[northjaxpro]

Strong shear (20-30 Kt some spots 40kt) down in the area from the Yucatan eastward through the Bahamas will keep a lid on any development at least for the next few days. This shear zone has been set in place for the past several days down that way. Also , strong shear zone (25-40kt) across the Northern GOM through the Florida peninsula and off the Southeast U.S. Coast.

[boca]

It looks like a lot of vorticity between Cuba and Jamaica well east of the X the NHC has in the Caribbean. I think something might develop further east and it’s been there for quite awhile.

[DioBrando]

Is that an anticyclone I see?

[Dean4Storms]

Big convection blow up overnight south of Cuba and just west of Jamaica. Looks like an anticyclone aloft getting established.

[ronjon]

Some of the models are picking up on a new vortex becoming established under the deep convection near Cuba and moving slowly northward in the SE GOM. The old broad low moves into the BOC and this new one develops east of it. Something to watch close to home this weekend.

[ronjon]

Convection blowup this morning.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Dean4Storms]

Convection blowup this morning.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

That's the area I mentioned above. If that continues today there is little doubt that it's sitting in an upper level sweet spot and something could go on to develop IMO. If the convection wanes then no concerns.

[GeneratorPower]

I look at the area south of Cuba this morning and think maybe something is going on.

[Aric Dunn]

Now we finally have something to watch with this.. north of the Yucatan. should be a shear enhanced system.

looks like something at the surface is trying to come together there this morning.

the low level flow where the convection is in the carrib, south of cuba is not right for any development.

[northjaxpro]

Big convection blow up overnight south of Cuba and just west of Jamaica. Looks like an anticyclone aloft getting established.

It is a developing anticyclone. The vorticity below Cuba has a chance to develop if it can get tucked in near the anticyclone, but the vort has to move more northwest to near the Yucatan to have a better chance to develop in the next couple of days.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located just north of the Yucatan
peninsula appears to be degenerating into a broad trough of low
pressure. The shower activity associated with this system remains
limited, and development is not anticipated while it moves over the
Bay of Campeche during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[Nimbus]

The area just NW of Jamaica has some rotation to it, but that may need a new thread.

[GCANE]

Yucatan Channel:
High-rain rate hot towers firing.
Low-level vort appears to be developing.
Anti-cyclone overhead.
Stay tuned