Surface trough over the southern GOM

ronjon · #41 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:56 pm

Yeah with some model support (although weak), the NHC should start mentioning it in their TWO soon.

#42 Postby **xironman** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:57 pm

Shear is minimal.

There is also convergence, but not much divergence.

StruThiO · #43 Postby **StruThiO** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:45 pm

#44 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:06 pm

Nice circulation developing W of Jamaica, surface pressures over in the central and western Caribbean are now down near 1008 mb, 2-4 mb lower than 24 hrs ago.

Weatherboy1 · #45 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:22 pm

GCANE wrote:Low-level clouds moving from the west to east just south of the convection

https://i.imgur.com/TL0PNbU.png

I was eyeballing that this afternoon as well. Seems like some kind of low might be spinning up there based on satellite appearance ...

#46 Postby **psyclone** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:28 pm

That looks very suspicious and right where one should look on October eve..

#47 Postby **MGC** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:31 pm

Still looks like a sharp trough there south of Cuba. Certainly something to keep an eye on.....MGC

StruThiO · #48 Postby **StruThiO** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:44 pm

https://twitter.com/TheLuckyCosmos/status/1178771044703883264

#49 Postby **psyclone** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:51 pm

StruThiO wrote:https://twitter.com/TheLuckyCosmos/status/1178771044703883264

Seems a bit odd to suggest a depression is likely but storm or hu chance is zilch...

StruThiO · #50 Postby **StruThiO** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:53 pm

psyclone wrote:
StruThiO wrote:https://twitter.com/TheLuckyCosmos/status/1178771044703883264

Seems a bit odd to suggest a depression is likely but storm or hu chance is zilch...

Don't disagree, just haven't seen EPS posted yet

SoupBone · #51 Postby **SoupBone** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:58 pm

psyclone wrote:
StruThiO wrote:https://twitter.com/TheLuckyCosmos/status/1178771044703883264

Seems a bit odd to suggest a depression is likely but storm or hu chance is zilch...

What is he basing the "90%" on?

Ubuntwo · #52 Postby **Ubuntwo** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:04 pm

SoupBone wrote:
psyclone wrote:
StruThiO wrote:https://twitter.com/TheLuckyCosmos/status/1178771044703883264

Seems a bit odd to suggest a depression is likely but storm or hu chance is zilch...

What is he basing the "90%" on?

He's basing it on the 12z EPS graphic he posted showing up to a 90% chance of a tropical depression in that area out to day 3.

Nimbus · #53 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:28 pm

Lots of convection north of Jamaica this evening and the shear has let up.

ronjon · #54 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:33 pm

StruThiO wrote:
psyclone wrote:
StruThiO wrote:https://twitter.com/TheLuckyCosmos/status/1178771044703883264

Seems a bit odd to suggest a depression is likely but storm or hu chance is zilch...

Don't disagree, just haven't seen EPS posted yet

Euro develops a closed low but keeps it weak. Either conditions aren't ideal for increased development or its typical global model resolution issues.

#55 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:36 pm

A broad area of low pressure has formed over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea between Grand Cayman and Jamaica, and is producing a
small area of showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of
this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves to the
west-northwest near the Yucatan peninsula in a couple of days, and
across the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

ronjon · #56 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:52 pm

Convection becoming more widespread.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

#57 Postby **psyclone** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:06 pm

Things have gotten less boring down there for sure with today's developments. The CPC extended outlooks have also trended a tad wetter for the southeast too after being (correctly) very dry for quite some time...in what could be a nod to at least some tropical moisture influx. Nice to see a few fast moving showers over the peninsula today...we could use some rain over a good bit of the region..

#58 Postby **GCANE** » Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:26 am

Euro is getting agressive in the longer-range time frame for this moving into and developing in the GOM

#59 Postby **N2FSU** » Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:32 am

0z Euro

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ronjon · #60 Postby **ronjon** » Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:48 am

00z ICON - similar to Euro. Tropical storm heading into NE GOM

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019100100&fh=12

Surface trough over the southern GOM

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