Surface trough over the southern GOM

[BYG Jacob]

Zero chance Florida dodges this one if it gets going

[Nimbus]

Nice circulation developing W of Jamaica, surface pressures over in the central and western Caribbean are now down near 1008 mb, 2-4 mb lower than 24 hrs ago.

https://i.imgur.com/USbkUZX.gif

Some consistency as convection is developing again this morning just north of the wave.
Could be an invest soon so we can put this in active topics.

[northjaxpro]

Cold front looks to pick it up later this weekend and early next week and bring it across Florida . It will be a lopsided tropical cyclone in a likelihood with increased shear lste in the period.

A good rainmaker on the way as we desperately need it after Dorian, Humberto and Karen all kept strong subsidence over the peninsula, being on the back side of each storm during September.

It kept Florida very hot and dry most of the month.

[N2FSU]

Would love some of that rain here in TLH, but looks like I would be on the dry side of whatever develops.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[northjaxpro]

It would depend on the exact track that eventually materializes with this system. But, because of the system being likely lopsided, all the heavy rain and significant impacts will be north and east of the coc.

[tropicwatch]

Cold front looks to pick it up later this weekend and early next week and bring it across Florida . It will be a lopsided tropical cyclone in a likelihood with increased shear lste in the period.

A good rainmaker on the way as we desperately need it after Dorian, Humberto and Karen all kept strong subsidence over the peninsula, being on the back side of each storm during September.

It kept Florida very hot and dry most of the month.

Haven't seen any significant rain at my house in the Panhandle since Aug. 28.

[northjaxpro]

I have only recorded just over an inch total rain since late August, and most of that occured during a rain squall during Dorian's closest approach to Northeast Florida. Otherwise, it has been hot and dry. Desert weather here. BTW, thanks to this subsidence, Jacksonville had its hottest September ever on record.

[GCANE]

Looks like closed vort from surface to 700mb.
Transitions to a trough above.

Pressure keeps dropping at the Yucatan Buoy.

[toad strangler]

0z Euro stops this thing for quite awhile off the FL W coast. That would bring a ton of rain to the eastern peninsula you would think.

[N2FSU]

0z Euro ensembles


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1179028692472750082

[DestinHurricane]

An Opal or Michael like track (not intensity) is not out of the question if this develops.

[GCANE]

Decent tower going up north of Jamaica

[GCANE]

Strong shear gradient with an anchored-in anti-cyclone.
Seen this type of setup before in the W Carib that spawned TCs.
Convection can fire up on the shear gradient and then get under the anti-cyclone.
From there, it can transition to a TC.

[Blown Away]

Decent tower going up north of Jamaica

[kevin]

GEFS isn't favoring this potential future TC at all. There are quite a bit runs which show some formation trying to occur, but none of them make it into the Gulf as a below 1005 mbar system and none of them later reach that intensity.

GEPS (CMC) has a polar opposite situation. There most of the members survive the passage into the Gulf and many of them become TC's. The strongest member has a 959 mbar hurricane at its peak. Here it can be seen in a 0 - 240 hours gif:

https://imgur.com/a/zi8IJxl

[psyclone]

One thing about late season systems...we're going to get a verdict within a reasonable time frame. November is frequently a nothing month so if something is going to go... it needs to happen soon as sand is flowing through the hourglass. So far there just isn't much happening and with model inconsistency and pushback it's tough to bet against persistence...which is a continuation of nothing. But that water is warm so out of respect for climo (along with a dearth of anything else)...you can't help but watch..

[ronjon]

Shear is pretty much disrupting any convection from getting over the LLC which is off to the west in clear air - this system will continue to struggle until it moves far enough away from the shear or it falls off.

[LarryWx]

GEFS isn't favoring this potential future TC at all. There are quite a bit runs which show some formation trying to occur, but none of them make it into the Gulf as a below 1005 mbar system and none of them later reach that intensity.

GEPS (CMC) has a polar opposite situation. There most of the members survive the passage into the Gulf and many of them become TC's. The strongest member has a 959 mbar hurricane at its peak. Here it can be seen in a 0 - 240 hours gif:

https://imgur.com/a/zi8IJxl

My favored model is the EPS, which has a weak signal for development to 1004 or stronger vs the almost no 6Z GEFS signal and the much stronger 0Z GEPS signal. The problem as always with the GEPS is that it often is much more active than the other 2 major ensembles. Remember the old CMC (“Crazy Uncle”), the one that overdeveloped so often? I think that’s the reason. I think the GEPS is essentially a bunch of Crazy Uncles with slightly different initializations.

[LarryWx]

Some of the models, including the GFS, have been trending toward a piece of the current NW Caribbean disturbance breaking off and moving to the NE over Cuba to E of the Bahamas before getting trapped by a stronger upper ridge on more recent runs just off the SE US. A weak surface low then forms and goes toward FL before recurving. The 12Z GFS only barely misses FL
due to a stronger 500 mb ridge to its north pushing it further west. This isn’t at all a big deal now and very likely will never be a big deal due to shear but may still be interesting to follow. Check out the trend of the last few GFS runs and note the trend of a strengthening 500 mb ridge just off the SE US and a weak sfc low getting closer to FL: