Low Pressure East of Florida - Is INVEST 92L

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Low Pressure East of Florida - Is INVEST 92L

#1 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 07, 2019 3:52 pm

Surface circ has formed just offshore west palm or just along the coast. Winds have switched to west all across SE Florida. As I mentioned a couple of days ago this should likely be a quick spin up as it heads to the NNE. Shear enhanced of course.

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Re:Low Pressure near SE Florida

#2 Postby Steve H. » Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:04 pm

Yeah, I'm surprised no posted on this. Nice little spin up. East winds near Melbourne here. Lots of heavy rain and thunder.
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Re: Low Pressure near SE Florida

#3 Postby Stormi » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:36 am

It's been raining non-stop where we live all day as well! I'll take it. It was definitely needed out here.
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Re: Low Pressure near SE Florida

#4 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 08, 2019 5:48 am

Radar and surface obs showing it has likely developed into a td.

Will probably go un classified
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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#5 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 08, 2019 8:42 am

Almost certainly a td. Likely a ts given the increasing forward motion. Big ball of shear enhanced convection. Circ is right on the edge.
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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#6 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 9:58 am

It already looks more impressive than 3-4 of the named storms this season. I'd say that there is a 100% chance of a storm system with 45-60 mph winds off the East U.S. Coast between now and Friday evening. Winds 30-45 mph from NJ through eastern Long Island Thu/Fri. Not much chance of it becoming a hurricane. Tides 2-3 ft above normal from Norfolk to Long Island. Beach erosion and TS winds along the East Coast. NHC has apparently decided that they have no intention of classifying the storm as subtropical and naming it. Doesn't matter as far as its impacts whether it gets a name or not.

In the image below, I put my cursor (red crosshairs) at the low center. In the past hour, the convection is being driven a little farther northeast of the center. A cold front like just to its west. Shear is strong, but that won't prevent the storm from forming.

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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#7 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:02 am

wxman57 wrote:It already looks more impressive than 3-4 of the named storms this season. I'd say that there is a 100% chance of a storm system with 45-60 mph winds off the East U.S. Coast between now and Friday evening. Winds 30-45 mph from NJ through eastern Long Island Thu/Fri. Not much chance of it becoming a hurricane. Tides 2-3 ft above normal from Norfolk to Long Island. Beach erosion and TS winds along the East Coast. NHC has apparently decided that they have no intention of classifying the storm as subtropical and naming it. Doesn't matter as far as its impacts whether it gets a name or not.

[im.com/images/Dist.JPG[/img]


Any chance the NHC will classify it in post season analysis?



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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#8 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:16 am

That has a satellite presentation of a TD or possibly a T.S. imo. I am sure Recon could verify this if it was in there. It looks good this morning. Shear enhanced system for sure. Typical of these type of systems to spin up fast as they
move through the Gulf Stream and head northeast off the Eastern U.S. Seaboard.

I am extremely thankful for this disturbance as it brought upwards to 5" of rainfall to areas of Northeast Florida as the vorticity tracked directly across this area yesterday and early last evening.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#9 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:22 am

northjaxpro wrote:That has a satellite presentation of a TD or possibly a T.S. imo. I am sure Recon could verify this if it was in there. It looks good this morning.

I am extremely thankful for this disturbance as it brought upwards to 5" of rainfall to areas of Northeast Florida as the vorticity tracked directly across this area yesterday and early last evening.


It may have peaked a few hours ago, right after sunrise, as a potential TD/TS. Satellite loop indicates that the convection is now outrunning the LLC, and the cold front is very near to the west. Like I said, more of a TS then several of the named storms this year. ;-)

A question was asked whether the NHC might classify it post-season. Sure, that's possible, but there would have to be some evidence other than "it looks good on satellite" to justify a post-season upgrade. The scatterometer satellite (ScatSat) might just clip the low in its next pass (12Z pass). This pass should appear on the ScatSat website shortly (http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/scasa_25_prod/scasa_app.cgi). If there is no scatterometer or ship data to support an upgrade, then it has no chance of being upgraded post-season.
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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#10 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:31 am

wxman57 wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:That has a satellite presentation of a TD or possibly a T.S. imo. I am sure Recon could verify this if it was in there. It looks good this morning.

I am extremely thankful for this disturbance as it brought upwards to 5" of rainfall to areas of Northeast Florida as the vorticity tracked directly across this area yesterday and early last evening.


It may have peaked a few hours ago, right after sunrise, as a potential TD/TS. Satellite loop indicates that the convection is now outrunning the LLC, and the cold front is very near to the west. Like I said, more of a TS then several of the named storms this year. ;-)

A question was asked whether the NHC might classify it post-season. Sure, that's possible, but there would have to be some evidence other than "it looks good on satellite" to justify a post-season upgrade. The scatterometer satellite (ScatSat) might just clip the low in its next pass (12Z pass). This pass should appear on the ScatSat website shortly (http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/scasa_25_prod/scasa_app.cgi). If there is no scatterometer or ship data to support an upgrade, then it has no chance of being upgraded post-season.



Yeah, you are probably right 57. It was and still is a fast moving , rapidly developing Low Pressure area. But, I am of the thinking that this system will be a prime candidate to be upgraded at least to a TD post-season.
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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#11 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:43 am

Oh well, the 1254Z ScatSat pass just missed the system to the east. Meanwhile, convection is being driven farther northeast away from the exposed low center.

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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#12 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:47 am

:uarrow: Yep :uarrow: Exposed COC
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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#13 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:58 am

Full 1km hi res zoom. The center is not exposed. The west part is partially exposed. But the center itself is not. You can see the curved low level flow out and into convection. Placing center right where those over shooting tops are on the edge.

Clear as day.

Drawing on my phone is tough.. but you get the idea lol

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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#14 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:04 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Full 1km hi res zoom. The center is not exposed. The west part is partially exposed. But the center itself is not. You can see the curved low level flow out and into convection. Placing center right where those over shooting tops are on the edge.

Clear as day.

Drawing on my phone is tough.. but you get the idea lol

https://i.ibb.co/XxxqFLZ/Screenshot-20191008-120004-Firefox.jpg


Can't see anything on that giant blurry phone image. I'm looking at a high-res loop on my workstation and see an exposed, broad center SW of the convection. It appears to be dissipating:

Image
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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#15 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:09 am

wxman57 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Full 1km hi res zoom. The center is not exposed. The west part is partially exposed. But the center itself is not. You can see the curved low level flow out and into convection. Placing center right where those over shooting tops are on the edge.

Clear as day.

Drawing on my phone is tough.. but you get the idea lol

https://i.ibb.co/XxxqFLZ/Screenshot-20191008-120004-Firefox.jpg


Can't see anything on that giant blurry phone image. I'm looking at a high-res loop on my workstation and see an exposed, broad center SW of the convection. It appears to be dissipating:

http://wxman57.com/images/Dist3.JPG


Well i am at work on a large hi res screen.. i just cant use work computer to log into storm2k lol. I have been tracking low level cloud motion. Individual CU.

When the sun angle moves more we will see a better shot of it.
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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#16 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:12 am

wxman57 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Full 1km hi res zoom. The center is not exposed. The west part is partially exposed. But the center itself is not. You can see the curved low level flow out and into convection. Placing center right where those over shooting tops are on the edge.

Clear as day.

Drawing on my phone is tough.. but you get the idea lol

https://i.ibb.co/XxxqFLZ/Screenshot-20191008-120004-Firefox.jpg


Can't see anything on that giant blurry phone image. I'm looking at a high-res loop on my workstation and see an exposed, broad center SW of the convection. It appears to be dissipating:

http://wxman57.com/images/Dist3.JPG


Check your loop now new images. the area you circled is nothing but curved inflow.
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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#17 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:15 am

Nope, exposed and weakening LLC. It peaked around 8AM EDT.
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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#18 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:18 am

A little better lol

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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#19 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:29 am

Certainly didn't expect such an impressive spin-up. NHC's classification of brief storms is extremely arbitrary, not a knock on their forecasting at all but could easily swap this with a dozen storms the last few years which looked less like a TC/STC than this
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: Low Pressure East of Florida

#20 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:35 am

Now the center is very easily visible as the western half is exposed not that far away from convection. Good well defined circ though. Convection probably going to build over center again.. as is the case with sheared TCs

Easily a td. And ascat looks like itnhas some ts winds.

Waiting for the descending scat b pass.
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