Trough of Low Pressure in Bay of Campeche / (Is INVEST 96L)

[cycloneye]

Since there is an insipient area of disturbed weather,this thread is made. Let's see if it develops on the Caribbean side or in EPAC if it does at all.

[cycloneye]

12Z GFS develops but has plenty of land interaction.

[GCANE]

Large amplitude wave kicking off heavy convection.
Being fed by the debris of an MCS that came off Venezuela this morning.
This will likely hit Honduras in a couple days creating surface convergence and a possible LL vort.

Gyre is in place now with west winds south of Panama and east winds north of Panama.

GFS has been very consistent in spinning something up this weekend with landfall on the Yucatan.
Euro currently develops it in the EPAC.

[chaser1]

I'm just questioning the predicted 500mb heights within the east/west ridge between the potentially forming T.D in the S.W. Caribbean this weekend, and the digging E. Conus trough during this period of time. Seems to me that "if" a developing T.D. were as far north as Honduras, that it could well feel the weakness to the north and possibly find a weakness in the ridge. On the other hand, if a T.D. were to form south of 13N and already be moving/drifting westward, then it may well remain small enough and far south enough to feel any tug northward. 12Z GFS suggests an initial northward motion likely moving up and over the top of a broader gyre still over the E. PAC, which then moves the T.D./Storm back to the west and over Central America. Seems that the three steering players here will be the strength and location of such a gyre, the strength of the east/west ridge across the N. Caribbean and Gulf, and depth/influence of any digging E. CONUS trough.

[NDG]

12z Euro still showing no GFS support for development in the Caribbean, it develops a vorticity further west over in the EPAC side.

[CourierPR]

12z Euro still showing no GFS support for development in the Caribbean, it develops a vorticity further west over in the EPAC side.

Please clarify. The Euro and GFS models are separate models, correct?

[northjaxpro]

I'm just questioning the predicted 500mb heights within the east/west ridge between the potentially forming T.D in the S.W. Caribbean this weekend, and the digging E. Conus trough during this period of time. Seems to me that "if" a developing T.D. were as far north as Honduras, that it could well feel the weakness to the north and possibly find a weakness in the ridge. On the other hand, if a T.D. were to form south of 13N and already be moving/drifting westward, then it may well remain small enough and far south enough to feel any tug northward. 12Z GFS suggests an initial northward motion likely moving up and over the top of a broader gyre still over the E. PAC, which then moves the T.D./Storm back to the west and over Central America. Seems that the three steering players here will be the strength and location of such a gyre, the strength of the east/west ridge across the N. Caribbean and Gulf, and depth/influence of any digging E. CONUS trough.

I agree with you Chaser about those three steering players. However, looking at the GFS 500 mb analysis out to one week from now, that Greater Antilles/Caribbean Ridge looks rather stout. There does not look to be enough amplification of the Eastern CONUS trough going into next week as it stands right now. Things could change of course, but right now this anomalous /atypical pattern for this time of the season down that way right now looks to continue through into next week. I spoke on this in the Global Models Thread yesterday that any tropical cyclones that try to develop down in the Caribbean will in all likehood be steered into Central America for the next week or so, barring any sudden change the mid -upper level pattern.

[northjaxpro]

I'm just questioning the predicted 500mb heights within the east/west ridge between the potentially forming T.D in the S.W. Caribbean this weekend, and the digging E. Conus trough during this period of time. Seems to me that "if" a developing T.D. were as far north as Honduras, that it could well feel the weakness to the north and possibly find a weakness in the ridge. On the other hand, if a T.D. were to form south of 13N and already be moving/drifting westward, then it may well remain small enough and far south enough to feel any tug northward. 12Z GFS suggests an initial northward motion likely moving up and over the top of a broader gyre still over the E. PAC, which then moves the T.D./Storm back to the west and over Central America. Seems that the three steering players here will be the strength and location of such a gyre, the strength of the east/west ridge across the N. Caribbean and Gulf, and depth/influence of any digging E. CONUS trough.

I agree with you Chaser about those three steering players. However, looking at today's 12Z GFS 500 mb analysis out one week from now, that Greater Antilles/Caribbean Ridge looks rather stout. There does not look to be enough amplification of the Eastern CONUS trough going into next week as it stands right now. Things could change of course, but right now this anomalous /atypical pattern down that way right now looks to continue through into next week. I spoke on this in the Global Models Thread yesterday that any tropical cyclones that try to develop down in the Caribbean will in all likelihood be steered into Central America for the next week or so, barring any sudden change the mid -upper level pattern.

[Hurricaneman]

12z Euro still showing no GFS support for development in the Caribbean, it develops a vorticity further west over in the EPAC side.

Please clarify. The Euro and GFS models are separate models, correct?

What he’s saying is that the GFS and Euro don’t agree as the Euro has this develop in the EPAC and the GFS develops in the Caribbean if I’m reading that right

[GCANE]

Persistent convection firing for over 3 hrs along a shear gradient.
Could be the beginning of what GFS has been telling us for this weekend.

[AnnularCane]

If we get a colored circle with this, when might that be?

[northjaxpro]

If we get a colored circle with this, when might that be?

Either late tonight or tomorrow morning, maybe as early as the 2 a.m. TWO , if the convection remains persistent throughout the overnight

[floridasun78]

look to be their weak low deep sw Caribbean that will run into central america

[northjaxpro]

If we get a colored circle with this, when might that be?

Either late tonight or tomorrow morning, maybe as early as the 2 a.m. TWO , if the convection remains persistent throughout the overnight

I am assuming Annular Cane that you are referencing the disturbed area well south of Jamaica, right? That area may get a yellow circle or mention from NHC later tonight or early tomorrow morning. That is what I am pointing too.

[AnnularCane]

If we get a colored circle with this, when might that be?

Either late tonight or tomorrow morning, maybe as early as the 2 a.m. TWO , if the convection remains persistent throughout the overnight

I am assuming Annular Cane that you are referencing the disturbed area well south of Jamaica, right? That area may get a yellow circle or mention from NHC later tonight or early tomorrow morning. That is what I am pointing too.

Probably...although there seems to be a lot of debate on when something might form there, if it does.

I guess I'm wondering when is the earliest something could show up down there.

[northjaxpro]

[quote]="AnnularCane"][quote="northjaxpro"][quote="northjaxpro"]


Either late tonight or tomorrow morning, maybe as early as the 2 a.m. TWO , if the convection remains persistent throughout the overnight[/quote]

[quote]
I am assuming Annular Cane that you are referencing the disturbed area well south of Jamaica, right? That area may get a yellow circle or mention from NHC later tonight or early tomorrow morning. That is what I am pointing too.[/quote]


Probably...although there seems to be a lot of debate on when something might form there, if it does.

[quote]
I guess I'm wondering when is the earliest something could show up down there.[/quote]

Something could develop down there this week if things come together.
This current AOI would not be around too long though with that ridge in place to steer it into CA

[tropicwatch]

Boy nothing moving poleward expect in the far east Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS into NE Nicaragua with weak development.

[blp]

Well the Navgem doing what the Navgem does.

[floridasun78]

Well the Navgem doing what the Navgem does.

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