Tropical Wave inside West Africa (Is Invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

Not a favored area on this period but here we are in 2019 with this.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday. Although
the far eastern Atlantic is not climatologically favorable for
tropical cyclone formation this late in the hurricane season, some
development of this system appears possible early next week while
it moves generally northwestward near or over the Cabo Verde
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday. Although
tropical cyclone formation in this area is climatologically unlikely
this late in the hurricane season, some development of this system
is possible early next week while it moves generally northwestward
near or over the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[gatorcane]

I am hoping this one grabs the Nestor name. That leaves Olga to claim the next storm name which would likely form somewhere in the Caribbean.

[HurricaneBelle]

I am hoping this one grabs the Nestor name. That leaves Olga to claim the next storm name which would likely form somewhere in the Caribbean.

We get it, you're obsessed with the name Olga

[galaxy401]

Well I didn't expect possible Cape Verde development but it has happened before. Looks like the Mid-October spurt of activity is kicking in.

[GeneratorPower]

I am hoping this one grabs the Nestor name. That leaves Olga to claim the next storm name which would likely form somewhere in the Caribbean.

We get it, you're obsessed with the name Olga

Four letters and ends in "a". It's gotta be a beast!

[AnnularCane]

I am hoping this one grabs the Nestor name. That leaves Olga to claim the next storm name which would likely form somewhere in the Caribbean.

We get it, you're obsessed with the name Olga

Four letters and ends in "a". It's gotta be a beast!

But it's a girl's name. The girl storms and 2019 don't mix.

[CyclonicFury]

This system, if it develops, will be fascinating because it would be unprecedented to have a tropical cyclone form in the deep tropics this far to the east this late in the season. Just last year Nadine became the easternmost tropical cyclone in the tropical Atlantic for so late in the season.

If development occurs, this system may actually recurve east of Cabo Verde. That has to be extremely rare.

[USTropics]

Tropical storm Ginger from 1967 would be the closest analog:


ECMWF has a brief spin up as it moves NE of the CV islands.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday. Although
tropical cyclone formation in this area is climatologically unlikely
this late in the hurricane season, some development of the system
is still possible before conditions become unfavorable by the middle
of next week. The system is expected move westward to northwestward
toward the Cabo Verde Islands during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Hammy]

Model support is quickly dissolving.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday. Although
tropical cyclone formation in this area is climatologically unlikely
this late in the hurricane season, some development of the system
is still possible before conditions become unfavorable by the middle
of next week. The system is expected move westward to northwestward
toward the Cabo Verde Islands during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 94L is up