Area in Western Caribbean
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Area in Western Caribbean
The area around Puerto Rico and Hispaniola looks to head towards Florida and I wonder if the models might pick up on development.
Last edited by boca on Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Area around Hispaniola
That area was pulsing up the other day. Worth watching I suppose. I don't think the models were doing much with it though. Could increase rain chances this weekend as another front pushes into the Florida peninsula and fails to make it very far south. Which sets up other possibilities if something gets going in the GOM.
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Re: Area around Hispaniola
I think it looks slightly interesting. Only thing is that it's got a couple things going against it not the least of which is land. Looks like there's a strong easterly surge moving through the Caribbean but at the same time, there's a broad mid to upper level jet that'll prohibit any Caribbean development for the time being. On the other hand, there's a strong gradient to the north compliments of the broad surface high extending east from the S.E. CONUS and this is causing the surface flow to come in more from the northeast. This northeast flow in conjunction with the broad-scale mid/upper trough moving through the Caribbean looks like it could try and spin up something just north of E. Cuba during the next couple days. I just don't think something small could quite evolve quick enough unless able to thread the needle and develop while not interacting with land.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- northjaxpro
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Re: Area around Hispaniola
chaser1 wrote:I think it looks slightly interesting. Only thing is that it's got a couple things going against it not the least of which is land. Looks like there's a strong easterly surge moving through the Caribbean but at the same time, there's a broad mid to upper level jet that'll prohibit any Caribbean development for the time being. On the other hand, there's a strong gradient to the north compliments of the broad surface high extending east from the S.E. CONUS and this is causing the surface flow to come in more from the northeast. This northeast flow in conjunction with the broad-scale mid/upper trough moving through the Caribbean looks like it could try and spin up something just north of E. Cuba during the next couple days. I just don't think something small could quite evolve quick enough unless able to thread the needle and develop while not interacting with land.
I agree pretty much with your assessment Chaser.
However, if the stronger vorticity currently over The Dominican Republic can emerge intact and get over water in the SE Bahamas region, this area may have a slim chance to potentially spin up. Due to the interaction with Hispaniola, I don't think it will, but it may have a slim chance. We shall see.
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Re: Area around Hispaniola
How often do you see a tropical wave moving WNW towards Florida in late October. It seems like the weather pattern we are in is a month behind the actual calendar.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Area around Hispaniola
There is a lot of energy across the Central Caribbean Sea and across Hispaniola and into Cuba, then north into the Florida Straits and Central and Southeastern Bahamas late this morning. Most of the activity is moving N/NW. Right now, the models have yet to pick on development yet, but it would not shock me if the models show something this weekend....
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re: Area around Hispaniola
Is there a chance of any of that moving into the W Caribbean and sitting for a bit? I still find it hard to believe that we will get through this season without that area being touched. I tend to think it will happen, even if it's mid-November when it does.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Area around Hispaniola
Patrick99 wrote:Is there a chance of any of that moving into the W Caribbean and sitting for a bit? I still find it hard to believe that we will get through this season without that area being touched. I tend to think it will happen, even if it's mid-November when it does.
Climatology at this juncture of the season typically favors systems that develop in the Caribbean to be steered north and northeastward in most cases as the mid -latitude westerlies across North America, steer systems out of the Caribbean in that general direction. However, this season and the weather in general has been behaving rather atypical lately. So, who knows uh?
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re: Area around Hispaniola
It looks like a low is taking shape just NW OF Jamaica but it could be at the upper levels.
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: Area around Hispaniola
System is now SW of Jamaica. Upper level low to its SW is helping to fire off some convection this morning. Perhaps we should change the title. Steering currents suggest this could pass through the Yucatan channel and enter the GOM in a few days. Models not interested, but that it no surprise.
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Re: Area in Western Caribbean
This system will have better UL conditions when it reaches the NW Caribbean/southern GOM tomorrow night and Monday, it will be interesting looking by then, could be another surprising development.
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Re: Area in Western Caribbean
Models don't always pick up on this stuff. But it's an area of interest IMO. Anytime you get convection firing down there it warrants watching this time of year. I feel that we will still see something substantial come out of the western Caribbean before all is said and done this year. Hope I'm wrong. Just an opinion now, not based on any facts. Waters are still really warm down there and pretty much untapped.
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Re: Area in Western Caribbean
That upper level low looks like it might be trying to transition to a warm core system but it will be over the Yucatan soon. Should see a convective burst in the center if it reaches the surface.
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Re: Area in Western Caribbean
I'm not really expecting this thing to form, but 2019 is the year of ULLs spinning down in the GoM. After Fernand and Imelda, you just never know when some unlikely disturbance pulls a fast one.
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