Area in Western Caribbean

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boca
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Area in Western Caribbean

#1 Postby boca » Wed Oct 23, 2019 5:08 pm

The area around Puerto Rico and Hispaniola looks to head towards Florida and I wonder if the models might pick up on development.
Last edited by boca on Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Area around Hispaniola

#2 Postby Steve H. » Wed Oct 23, 2019 5:31 pm

That area was pulsing up the other day. Worth watching I suppose. I don't think the models were doing much with it though. Could increase rain chances this weekend as another front pushes into the Florida peninsula and fails to make it very far south. Which sets up other possibilities if something gets going in the GOM.
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Re: Area around Hispaniola

#3 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:31 pm

Looks like it is going poof. Zero model support.
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Re: Area around Hispaniola

#4 Postby chaser1 » Thu Oct 24, 2019 10:50 am

I think it looks slightly interesting. Only thing is that it's got a couple things going against it not the least of which is land. Looks like there's a strong easterly surge moving through the Caribbean but at the same time, there's a broad mid to upper level jet that'll prohibit any Caribbean development for the time being. On the other hand, there's a strong gradient to the north compliments of the broad surface high extending east from the S.E. CONUS and this is causing the surface flow to come in more from the northeast. This northeast flow in conjunction with the broad-scale mid/upper trough moving through the Caribbean looks like it could try and spin up something just north of E. Cuba during the next couple days. I just don't think something small could quite evolve quick enough unless able to thread the needle and develop while not interacting with land.
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Re: Area around Hispaniola

#5 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:03 pm

chaser1 wrote:I think it looks slightly interesting. Only thing is that it's got a couple things going against it not the least of which is land. Looks like there's a strong easterly surge moving through the Caribbean but at the same time, there's a broad mid to upper level jet that'll prohibit any Caribbean development for the time being. On the other hand, there's a strong gradient to the north compliments of the broad surface high extending east from the S.E. CONUS and this is causing the surface flow to come in more from the northeast. This northeast flow in conjunction with the broad-scale mid/upper trough moving through the Caribbean looks like it could try and spin up something just north of E. Cuba during the next couple days. I just don't think something small could quite evolve quick enough unless able to thread the needle and develop while not interacting with land.


I agree pretty much with your assessment Chaser.

However, if the stronger vorticity currently over The Dominican Republic can emerge intact and get over water in the SE Bahamas region, this area may have a slim chance to potentially spin up. Due to the interaction with Hispaniola, I don't think it will, but it may have a slim chance. We shall see.

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Re: Area around Hispaniola

#6 Postby boca » Thu Oct 24, 2019 3:23 pm

How often do you see a tropical wave moving WNW towards Florida in late October. It seems like the weather pattern we are in is a month behind the actual calendar.
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Re: Area around Hispaniola

#7 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:42 am

There is a lot of energy across the Central Caribbean Sea and across Hispaniola and into Cuba, then north into the Florida Straits and Central and Southeastern Bahamas late this morning. Most of the activity is moving N/NW. Right now, the models have yet to pick on development yet, but it would not shock me if the models show something this weekend....

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Re: Area around Hispaniola

#8 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:40 pm

Is there a chance of any of that moving into the W Caribbean and sitting for a bit? I still find it hard to believe that we will get through this season without that area being touched. I tend to think it will happen, even if it's mid-November when it does.
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Re: Area around Hispaniola

#9 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:46 pm

Patrick99 wrote:Is there a chance of any of that moving into the W Caribbean and sitting for a bit? I still find it hard to believe that we will get through this season without that area being touched. I tend to think it will happen, even if it's mid-November when it does.


Climatology at this juncture of the season typically favors systems that develop in the Caribbean to be steered north and northeastward in most cases as the mid -latitude westerlies across North America, steer systems out of the Caribbean in that general direction. However, this season and the weather in general has been behaving rather atypical lately. So, who knows uh?
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Re: Area around Hispaniola

#10 Postby boca » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:55 pm

It looks like a low is taking shape just NW OF Jamaica but it could be at the upper levels.
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Re: Area around Hispaniola

#11 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:17 am

System is now SW of Jamaica. Upper level low to its SW is helping to fire off some convection this morning. Perhaps we should change the title. Steering currents suggest this could pass through the Yucatan channel and enter the GOM in a few days. Models not interested, but that it no surprise.
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Re: Area in Western Caribbean

#12 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 26, 2019 9:51 am

This system will have better UL conditions when it reaches the NW Caribbean/southern GOM tomorrow night and Monday, it will be interesting looking by then, could be another surprising development.

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Re: Area in Western Caribbean

#13 Postby Steve H. » Sat Oct 26, 2019 11:27 am

Models don't always pick up on this stuff. But it's an area of interest IMO. Anytime you get convection firing down there it warrants watching this time of year. I feel that we will still see something substantial come out of the western Caribbean before all is said and done this year. Hope I'm wrong. Just an opinion now, not based on any facts. Waters are still really warm down there and pretty much untapped.
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Re: Area in Western Caribbean

#14 Postby Nimbus » Sun Oct 27, 2019 5:40 pm

That upper level low looks like it might be trying to transition to a warm core system but it will be over the Yucatan soon. Should see a convective burst in the center if it reaches the surface.
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Re: Area in Western Caribbean

#15 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:48 pm

I'm not really expecting this thing to form, but 2019 is the year of ULLs spinning down in the GoM. After Fernand and Imelda, you just never know when some unlikely disturbance pulls a fast one.
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