2019-2020 Southern Hemisphere cyclone season

[Tailspin]

GFS L/R model storm, Looks a typical equatorial rossby wave seeded storm. With two lows mirroring each other on both sides of the equator.


https://imgur.com/ZEIj8JN




https://imgur.com/jl3nHxO

[Tailspin]

EPS also has some support atm.
https://imgur.com/4YnojQj


https://radar.ozforecast.com.au/satelli ... t=IDE00405

[Tailspin]

A cluster of storms are circulating in the region. With very good divergence aloft atm.

https://imgur.com/K1zxUtB

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 642,-0.769




https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/dis ... C_SCALE=15

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/WXappraiser/status/1199120871849250816

[aspen]

Both the GFS and Euro show development of a system in the SWIO north of Madagascar as early as Friday, peaking below 970 mbar. The NAVGEM shows two systems developing on either sides of the equator, and the CMC has just one system forming in the SW NIO.

[aspen]

Invests 91S and 92S are now being tracked as tropical cyclones. 91S is heading south towards a hot spot off the coast of NW Madagascar with the potential to support a sub-890 mbar system, assuming other factors are favorable. It is currently expected to peak as a Cat 1 equivalent with 70 kt winds. 92S is expected to peak near hurricane status at 60 kt.

[aspen]

Does anyone know where I can find frequently updated (10 or 15 or 30 minute intervals) IR imagery for SWIO cyclones?

Ambali appears to be undergoing rapid or even explosive intensification, having jumped up to 70 kt with a small eye forming inside an almost perfectly circular CMG CDO. High SSTs, good outflow, low (<10 kt) wind shear, and OHC high enough to support a <890 mbar system should keep Ambali in a phase of significant intensification within the next 24 hours before weakening is anticipated.

[WAcyclone]

Does anyone know where I can find frequently updated (10 or 15 or 30 minute intervals) IR imagery for SWIO cyclones?

Ambali appears to be undergoing rapid or even explosive intensification, having jumped up to 70 kt with a small eye forming inside an almost perfectly circular CMG CDO. High SSTs, good outflow, low (<10 kt) wind shear, and OHC high enough to support a <890 mbar system should keep Ambali in a phase of significant intensification within the next 24 hours before weakening is anticipated.

I am using these two sites for 15-minute METEOSAT-8 imagery:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH032020

https://meteologix.com/au/satellite/620-e-97-s/top-alert-15min.html#play

[aspen]

The Indian Ocean has no chill this year. After the unprecedented levels of activity of the 2018-19 SWIO and 2019 NIO seasons, the 2019-20 SWIO season has made a grand start with Cyclone Ambali explosively intensifying from a 35 kt TS to a likely 130-140 kt Category 4/5 in just 24 hours. That's a whopping 95-105 kt increase in wind speed, if Ambali did reach that intensity; the JTWC only put it at 100 kt.

[1900hurricane]

Storm quality has been way down so far this season, we've only had two classified major TCs across the entire Southern Hemisphere so far this season, and none since the first two systems of the season in early December.

[cycloneye]

Storm quality has been way down so far this season, we've only had two classified major TCs across the entire Southern Hemisphere so far this season, and none since the first two systems of the season in early December.

Also ACE is well below average.

[1900hurricane]

The ratio of PDI to ACE is also very low due to the lack of major TC action, on pace for the lowest since more reliable SH records were kept starting in the 1980s.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1234229151344812034

[aspen]

The latest models runs are showing two new cyclones, on in the middle of the SWIO and another in the South Pacific, forming within the next few days and potentially getting to <980 mbar within 120 hours. Finally, some life in the Southern Hemisphere!