BIGGIES for 2020?

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aspen
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#81 Postby aspen » Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:07 pm

DioBrando wrote:
aspen wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
which are you leaning more towards?

Maybe slightly towards a Gulf/Caribbean scenario, since I remember seeing some model runs forecasting enhanced convection in the region from May-July.


i see, i see, how many systems could you see forming from now until august 1st?
i'm saying A-D
you?

A-C or A-D seems reasonable. 2017 got to E before August, plus an unnamed depression. Based on the currently predicted conditions for May-July, I’m thinking it’ll be quality > quantity for the early part of the 2020 season, unlike the same time frame in 2017.
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#82 Postby DioBrando » Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:41 pm

aspen wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
aspen wrote:Maybe slightly towards a Gulf/Caribbean scenario, since I remember seeing some model runs forecasting enhanced convection in the region from May-July.


i see, i see, how many systems could you see forming from now until august 1st?
i'm saying A-D
you?

A-C or A-D seems reasonable. 2017 got to E before August, plus an unnamed depression. Based on the currently predicted conditions for May-July, I’m thinking it’ll be quality > quantity for the early part of the 2020 season, unlike the same time frame in 2017.

i'm thinking the same too! here, i'm thinking

a = ts
b = c3
c = ts
d = ts
--------
e = c4

you?
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#83 Postby FireRat » Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:04 pm

Hmm it's tough to say for Bertha, especially if we get some very early action...but I can see Bertha being a significant storm even if she forms in June. If Bertha comes in July, I bet she'll form around July 4th and peak around July 9 just like in '96, prob as a Cat 3 north of the Islands!
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#84 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:41 am

FireRat wrote:Hmm it's tough to say for Bertha, especially if we get some very early action...but I can see Bertha being a significant storm even if she forms in June. If Bertha comes in July, I bet she'll form around July 4th and peak around July 9 just like in '96, prob as a Cat 3 north of the Islands!

I'm still scarred from how hideous Hurricane Bertha in 2014 looked. :cheesy:

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha_(2014)
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#85 Postby BadLarry95 » Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:07 pm

I’ll just post my entire year’s prediction

Arthur- late May 65 mph, non tropical origin off the SE coast, heads OTS
Bertha- mid June, 50 mph, bay of Campeche
Cristobal- early July 80 mph, western Caribbean into gulf. Landfall in MS/AL
Dolly- late July, 60 mph off SE coast. OTS
Edouard- early August, 120 mph, western MDR, grazes Lesser Antilles, recurves between Bermuda and USA
Fay- mid August, 50 mph, northern gulf
Gonzalo- mid August, 70 mph failed eastern MDR storm, clears the way for the train
Hanna- late August long track CV storm. 150 mph, Caribbean rider, landfall between Cancun and Guatemala (think a dean style storm)
Isaías- late August 100 mph, forms near Africa, sheared by Hanna, but goes more north, passing east of Bermuda
Josephine- end August- 85 mph, forme near Bahamas, goes north, hits Canada, possibly Nantucket
Kyle- early September 160 mph, north of Hispaniola, heads WNW, striking southern Dade county as a cat 3, peaks in central gulf, making landfall in SW Louisiana bayous
Laura- early September 110 mph, CV storm on a NW trajectory, recurved early, impacts Azores
Marco- mid September 90 mph central Atlantic, essentially a repeat of Nate from 05
Nana- mid September 45 mph eastern Caribbean, torn up by Hispaniola
Omar- late September 140 mph, classic recurring CV storm
Paulette- late September 65 mph, another failed CV storm, sheared by Omar
Rene- early October 120 mph, forms south of Cuba, enters gulf, swings Nnw striking north of Tampa bay
Sally- mid October 50 mph. Western Caribbean, strikes Honduras
Teddy- mid October. 115 mph Non tropical origin, meanders SE of Bermuda
Vicky- late October 75 mph, western Caribbean, impacts Cuba from the south
Wilfred- Mid November 60 mph SW Caribbean, strikes Nicaragua
Alpha- late November 60 mph non tropical high latitude, forms NÉ of Bermuda, swings up toward Newfoundland
Beta- December 80 mph, E atlantic possible impacts on Azores
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#86 Postby DioBrando » Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:10 pm

BadLarry95 wrote:I’ll just post my entire year’s prediction

Arthur- late May 65 mph, non tropical origin off the SE coast, heads OTS
Bertha- mid June, 50 mph, bay of Campeche
Cristobal- early July 80 mph, western Caribbean into gulf. Landfall in MS/AL
Dolly- late July, 60 mph off SE coast. OTS
Edouard- early August, 120 mph, western MDR, grazes Lesser Antilles, recurves between Bermuda and USA
Fay- mid August, 50 mph, northern gulf
Gonzalo- mid August, 70 mph failed eastern MDR storm, clears the way for the train
Hanna- late August long track CV storm. 150 mph, Caribbean rider, landfall between Cancun and Guatemala (think a dean style storm)
Isaías- late August 100 mph, forms near Africa, sheared by Hanna, but goes more north, passing east of Bermuda
Josephine- end August- 85 mph, forme near Bahamas, goes north, hits Canada, possibly Nantucket
Kyle- early September 160 mph, north of Hispaniola, heads WNW, striking southern Dade county as a cat 3, peaks in central gulf, making landfall in SW Louisiana bayous
Laura- early September 110 mph, CV storm on a NW trajectory, recurved early, impacts Azores
Marco- mid September 90 mph central Atlantic, essentially a repeat of Nate from 05
Nana- mid September 45 mph eastern Caribbean, torn up by Hispaniola
Omar- late September 140 mph, classic recurring CV storm
Paulette- late September 65 mph, another failed CV storm, sheared by Omar
Rene- early October 120 mph, forms south of Cuba, enters gulf, swings Nnw striking north of Tampa bay
Sally- mid October 50 mph. Western Caribbean, strikes Honduras
Teddy- mid October. 115 mph Non tropical origin, meanders SE of Bermuda
Vicky- late October 75 mph, western Caribbean, impacts Cuba from the south
Wilfred- Mid November 60 mph SW Caribbean, strikes Nicaragua
Alpha- late November 60 mph non tropical high latitude, forms NÉ of Bermuda, swings up toward Newfoundland
Beta- December 80 mph, E atlantic possible impacts on Azores

amazing but scary predictions!!!!!
what are your analogs by the way and how did you arrive at these predictions?
i was thinking there'd be more classic cv storms like your omar, but i might be a bit crazy in thinking that. similar to 1999 methinks but idek now

(also is isaias spelt with an accent?)
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#87 Postby DioBrando » Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:13 pm

FireRat wrote:Hmm it's tough to say for Bertha, especially if we get some very early action...but I can see Bertha being a significant storm even if she forms in June. If Bertha comes in July, I bet she'll form around July 4th and peak around July 9 just like in '96, prob as a Cat 3 north of the Islands!

i actually think the same too, to be honest!
i'm just wondering if europe would have significant impacts.
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#88 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:25 pm

BadLarry95 wrote:I’ll just post my entire year’s prediction

Arthur- late May 65 mph, non tropical origin off the SE coast, heads OTS
Bertha- mid June, 50 mph, bay of Campeche
Cristobal- early July 80 mph, western Caribbean into gulf. Landfall in MS/AL
Dolly- late July, 60 mph off SE coast. OTS
Edouard- early August, 120 mph, western MDR, grazes Lesser Antilles, recurves between Bermuda and USA
Fay- mid August, 50 mph, northern gulf
Gonzalo- mid August, 70 mph failed eastern MDR storm, clears the way for the train
Hanna- late August long track CV storm. 150 mph, Caribbean rider, landfall between Cancun and Guatemala (think a dean style storm)
Isaías- late August 100 mph, forms near Africa, sheared by Hanna, but goes more north, passing east of Bermuda
Josephine- end August- 85 mph, forme near Bahamas, goes north, hits Canada, possibly Nantucket
Kyle- early September 160 mph, north of Hispaniola, heads WNW, striking southern Dade county as a cat 3, peaks in central gulf, making landfall in SW Louisiana bayous
Laura- early September 110 mph, CV storm on a NW trajectory, recurved early, impacts Azores
Marco- mid September 90 mph central Atlantic, essentially a repeat of Nate from 05
Nana- mid September 45 mph eastern Caribbean, torn up by Hispaniola
Omar- late September 140 mph, classic recurring CV storm
Paulette- late September 65 mph, another failed CV storm, sheared by Omar
Rene- early October 120 mph, forms south of Cuba, enters gulf, swings Nnw striking north of Tampa bay
Sally- mid October 50 mph. Western Caribbean, strikes Honduras
Teddy- mid October. 115 mph Non tropical origin, meanders SE of Bermuda
Vicky- late October 75 mph, western Caribbean, impacts Cuba from the south
Wilfred- Mid November 60 mph SW Caribbean, strikes Nicaragua
Alpha- late November 60 mph non tropical high latitude, forms NÉ of Bermuda, swings up toward Newfoundland
Beta- December 80 mph, E atlantic possible impacts on Azores


Thank you for leaving us alone, we need the break.
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#89 Postby BadLarry95 » Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:26 pm

DioBrando wrote:
BadLarry95 wrote:I’ll just post my entire year’s prediction

Arthur- late May 65 mph, non tropical origin off the SE coast, heads OTS
Bertha- mid June, 50 mph, bay of Campeche
Cristobal- early July 80 mph, western Caribbean into gulf. Landfall in MS/AL
Dolly- late July, 60 mph off SE coast. OTS
Edouard- early August, 120 mph, western MDR, grazes Lesser Antilles, recurves between Bermuda and USA
Fay- mid August, 50 mph, northern gulf
Gonzalo- mid August, 70 mph failed eastern MDR storm, clears the way for the train
Hanna- late August long track CV storm. 150 mph, Caribbean rider, landfall between Cancun and Guatemala (think a dean style storm)
Isaías- late August 100 mph, forms near Africa, sheared by Hanna, but goes more north, passing east of Bermuda
Josephine- end August- 85 mph, forme near Bahamas, goes north, hits Canada, possibly Nantucket
Kyle- early September 160 mph, north of Hispaniola, heads WNW, striking southern Dade county as a cat 3, peaks in central gulf, making landfall in SW Louisiana bayous
Laura- early September 110 mph, CV storm on a NW trajectory, recurved early, impacts Azores
Marco- mid September 90 mph central Atlantic, essentially a repeat of Nate from 05
Nana- mid September 45 mph eastern Caribbean, torn up by Hispaniola
Omar- late September 140 mph, classic recurring CV storm
Paulette- late September 65 mph, another failed CV storm, sheared by Omar
Rene- early October 120 mph, forms south of Cuba, enters gulf, swings Nnw striking north of Tampa bay
Sally- mid October 50 mph. Western Caribbean, strikes Honduras
Teddy- mid October. 115 mph Non tropical origin, meanders SE of Bermuda
Vicky- late October 75 mph, western Caribbean, impacts Cuba from the south
Wilfred- Mid November 60 mph SW Caribbean, strikes Nicaragua
Alpha- late November 60 mph non tropical high latitude, forms NÉ of Bermuda, swings up toward Newfoundland
Beta- December 80 mph, E atlantic possible impacts on Azores

amazing but scary predictions!!!!!
what are your analogs by the way and how did you arrive at these predictions?
i was thinking there'd be more classic cv storms like your omar, but i might be a bit crazy in thinking that. similar to 1999 methinks but idek now

(also is isaias spelt with an accent?)


Im just going off a hybrid 2005-2010 type situation developing. SAL will be a bit of a bother, but there will be enough breaks to get my Hanna/Omar style tracks. Other ones like my versions of Isaias and Laura will strengthen quickly, and given their overall NW trajectory will get pulled North faster. But I think the places to watch will be the gulf and western Atlantic. I’ll post a map later tonight.

Also, Isaías just auto corrects to that since I frequently type in Portuguese
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#90 Postby Chris90 » Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:35 pm

This thread has been getting some good participation, so I just wanted to quickly remind everyone that while we guess what the big ones will be this year, also take some time to post your seasonal numbers in the annual seasonal numbers thread if you have yet to do so! I know cycloneye would love to see as much participation as possible there, and it's interesting to see what everyone's thoughts are on the upcoming season, plus we have stats compiled by one of our members (I think their username is TheAustinMan), so we get to see what the S2K member consensus is plus some other fun stats and graphs. Hope to see you all there!
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#91 Postby aspen » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:15 pm

Chris90 wrote:This thread has been getting some good participation, so I just wanted to quickly remind everyone that while we guess what the big ones will be this year, also take some time to post your seasonal numbers in the annual seasonal numbers thread if you have yet to do so! I know cycloneye would love to see as much participation as possible there, and it's interesting to see what everyone's thoughts are on the upcoming season, plus we have stats compiled by one of our members (I think their username is TheAustinMan), so we get to see what the S2K member consensus is plus some other fun stats and graphs. Hope to see you all there!

Where’s the annual seasonal numbers thread?
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#92 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:26 pm

aspen wrote:Where’s the annual seasonal numbers thread?



viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120821

It's a pinned thread in Talkin' Tropics.
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#93 Postby FireRat » Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:23 am

omg hahaha StormExpert! Bertha '14 was indeed uuugly!!! :lol:
what an eyesore!
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#94 Postby DioBrando » Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:42 pm

FireRat wrote:omg hahaha StormExpert! Bertha '14 was indeed uuugly!!! :lol:
what an eyesore!

i agree, but tbh, bertha '96 was rocking an awesome pompadour
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#95 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:56 pm

FireRat wrote:omg hahaha StormExpert! Bertha '14 was indeed uuugly!!! :lol:
what an eyesore!

Tell me about it! :roll:

But it was recently overshadowed by Hurricane Barry last July. :lol:

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Barry_(2019)
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#96 Postby aspen » Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:07 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
FireRat wrote:omg hahaha StormExpert! Bertha '14 was indeed uuugly!!! :lol:
what an eyesore!

Tell me about it! :roll:

But it was recently overshadowed by Hurricane Barry last July. :lol:

https://i.imgur.com/NNSKcJP.jpg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Barry_(2019)

The “H” in “Hurricane Barry” stands for “Hideous”. I’ve seen 50 kt tropical storms that look better than Barry ‘19.
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#97 Postby toad strangler » Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:30 pm

BadLarry95 wrote:I’ll just post my entire year’s prediction

Arthur- late May 65 mph, non tropical origin off the SE coast, heads OTS
Bertha- mid June, 50 mph, bay of Campeche
Cristobal- early July 80 mph, western Caribbean into gulf. Landfall in MS/AL
Dolly- late July, 60 mph off SE coast. OTS
Edouard- early August, 120 mph, western MDR, grazes Lesser Antilles, recurves between Bermuda and USA
Fay- mid August, 50 mph, northern gulf
Gonzalo- mid August, 70 mph failed eastern MDR storm, clears the way for the train
Hanna- late August long track CV storm. 150 mph, Caribbean rider, landfall between Cancun and Guatemala (think a dean style storm)
Isaías- late August 100 mph, forms near Africa, sheared by Hanna, but goes more north, passing east of Bermuda
Josephine- end August- 85 mph, forme near Bahamas, goes north, hits Canada, possibly Nantucket
Kyle- early September 160 mph, north of Hispaniola, heads WNW, striking southern Dade county as a cat 3, peaks in central gulf, making landfall in SW Louisiana bayous
Laura- early September 110 mph, CV storm on a NW trajectory, recurved early, impacts Azores
Marco- mid September 90 mph central Atlantic, essentially a repeat of Nate from 05
Nana- mid September 45 mph eastern Caribbean, torn up by Hispaniola
Omar- late September 140 mph, classic recurring CV storm
Paulette- late September 65 mph, another failed CV storm, sheared by Omar
Rene- early October 120 mph, forms south of Cuba, enters gulf, swings Nnw striking north of Tampa bay
Sally- mid October 50 mph. Western Caribbean, strikes Honduras
Teddy- mid October. 115 mph Non tropical origin, meanders SE of Bermuda
Vicky- late October 75 mph, western Caribbean, impacts Cuba from the south
Wilfred- Mid November 60 mph SW Caribbean, strikes Nicaragua
Alpha- late November 60 mph non tropical high latitude, forms NÉ of Bermuda, swings up toward Newfoundland
Beta- December 80 mph, E atlantic possible impacts on Azores


Rene would have to swing NNE in the Gulf to hit N of Tampa. Not NNW
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#98 Postby FireRat » Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:14 am

DioBrando wrote:i agree, but tbh, bertha '96 was rocking an awesome pompadour


Dude she totally was rocking that crazy hairdo!!

Image
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#99 Postby DioBrando » Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:08 am

FireRat wrote:
DioBrando wrote:i agree, but tbh, bertha '96 was rocking an awesome pompadour


Dude she totally was rocking that crazy hairdo!!

https://i.ibb.co/PjHpkpb/maltese-pompadour.jpg

She was very fashion-forward!
Oh, not forgetting Hortense either. How did she get her hair THAT high? Sonic?
Image
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Re: BIGGIES for 2020?

#100 Postby FireRat » Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:01 am

Haha wow, I can see the Sonic resemblance!

Image
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