BIGGIES for 2020?

[DioBrando]

so what categories are you thinking of?

I honestly wonder if edouard will be as large as lorenzo sizewise

How big was the 1996 storm (sizewise?)

oh dear, IDK I'm vibing with Marco being a big one because it begins with an M

I honestly feel like we may get two Cat 5's in 2020, so maybe Edouard and Marco will have a contest. I don't think Ed would be as big as Lorenzo, man that storm was huge!
Edouard '96 would be considered a small to medium sized hurricane I believe, just a bit bigger than Andrew. I wouldn't be surprised if he was found to have been a low-end Cat 5 on 8/25/96 when he was out in the Atlantic east of the islands, his satellite presentation was classic and the NHC estimated his pressure at 933 mb at that time (could have been lower).

i wonder if they'll do some reanalysis on the 1996 hurricane season tbh
i suspected he was a small-ish hurricane, he looked absolutely tiny on camera
was he annular?

[Astromanía]

Edouard doesn't sound scary in spanish tho, I will go with Isaias as the big one of the season definitely

[Chris90]

i wonder if they'll do some reanalysis on the 1996 hurricane season tbh
i suspected he was a small-ish hurricane, he looked absolutely tiny on camera
was he annular?

I'm pretty sure the reanalysis project will go through the 90s, I just think it'll be a few years before they get there. I'm not quite sure where they are at right now, I haven't been keeping up with it, but I think the last set of seasons they released was a block from either the 60s or 70s. Might be way off though.

I don't think Edouard '96 was annular at any point in his life. The report mentions a banding eye at one point, and it also mentions that recon reported 3 concentric eyewalls at one point. I doubt conditions favored any annular characteristics.

[FireRat]

Found this nice shot of the Atlantic from 8/25/96 with Edouard on the right! Lets see if he is anything like that or more this year.



Quite a formiddable hurricane from the 90s!

[DioBrando]

Found this nice shot of the Atlantic from 8/25/96 with Edouard on the right! Lets see if he is anything like that or more this year.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/FTW8wi8zQsIbTdbuck4POOFFhBKf5Y6jNlysdRZYSy_RRQLPizA9nItyJUt_6sqdWHp7NlbT_aeJLSu6S_BIiUo4nfR_uuppz7vVYz53_Fa3xVvadBA

Quite a formiddable hurricane from the 90s!

I can't see that image, do you have another version or a screenshot?
Also, I miss the 90s...

[DioBrando]

i wonder if they'll do some reanalysis on the 1996 hurricane season tbh
i suspected he was a small-ish hurricane, he looked absolutely tiny on camera
was he annular?

I'm pretty sure the reanalysis project will go through the 90s, I just think it'll be a few years before they get there. I'm not quite sure where they are at right now, I haven't been keeping up with it, but I think the last set of seasons they released was a block from either the 60s or 70s. Might be way off though.

I don't think Edouard '96 was annular at any point in his life. The report mentions a banding eye at one point, and it also mentions that recon reported 3 concentric eyewalls at one point. I doubt conditions favored any annular characteristics.

you sure? https://www.e-education.psu.edu/files/m ... al1002.pdf

[FireRat]

Hey man, yeah the image vanished for some reason (copyright I suspect), lets see if this one works...



btw DioBrando, nice link! Edouard was annular after all.
He does indeed look like a low-end C5.

The original image I tried uploading showed the whole ATL on 8/25/96. Ed looked about the size of FL, but the core was just a bit larger than Andrew. The colorful image above (hopefully it doesn't also vanish) is from the same time on 8/25/96 at his peak, truly amazing storm!

[DioBrando]

Hey man, yeah the image vanished for some reason (copyright I suspect), lets see if this one works...

http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1996/1996233N12340.EDOUARD.1996.08.25.0600.56.MET-5.110.hursat-b1.v07.png

btw DioBrando, nice link! Edouard was annular after all.
He does indeed look like a low-end C5.

The original image I tried uploading showed the whole ATL on 8/25/96. Ed looked about the size of FL, but the core was just a bit larger than Andrew. The colorful image above (hopefully it doesn't also vanish) is from the same time on 8/25/96 at his peak, truly amazing storm!

I can see the colorful image! Thank you so much!
I agree he was very picturesque. I wonder how "good or bad" he was, behavior-wise? Because he did seem to pull many stunts in the open ocean...
In fact, he looks a bit like Irma. I wonder if she too was annular?


I've no idea but I just have a tingling sensation at the back of my head that Ed is probably gonna pull one this year...

[Chris90]

i wonder if they'll do some reanalysis on the 1996 hurricane season tbh
i suspected he was a small-ish hurricane, he looked absolutely tiny on camera
was he annular?

I'm pretty sure the reanalysis project will go through the 90s, I just think it'll be a few years before they get there. I'm not quite sure where they are at right now, I haven't been keeping up with it, but I think the last set of seasons they released was a block from either the 60s or 70s. Might be way off though.

I don't think Edouard '96 was annular at any point in his life. The report mentions a banding eye at one point, and it also mentions that recon reported 3 concentric eyewalls at one point. I doubt conditions favored any annular characteristics.

you sure? https://www.e-education.psu.edu/files/m ... al1002.pdf

Interesting article, thanks for sharing. I would like to see some microwave images from Edouard if anyone possibly has a link to some.

As for this year and any stunts this iteration of Edouard may pull, I think there's a possibility he might be a July major, which is an uncommon occurrence. I just think with the way this year has been setting up so far that things will kick off early, so I'm expecting a higher-than-normal chance that we get to the E storm before August.

[FireRat]

You're welcome dude! Oh yeah, Irma was definitely annular, especially from Sept 5 to Sept 6 2017!

I think the same, Ed might just do it early in July or August

[DioBrando]

I'm pretty sure the reanalysis project will go through the 90s, I just think it'll be a few years before they get there. I'm not quite sure where they are at right now, I haven't been keeping up with it, but I think the last set of seasons they released was a block from either the 60s or 70s. Might be way off though.

I don't think Edouard '96 was annular at any point in his life. The report mentions a banding eye at one point, and it also mentions that recon reported 3 concentric eyewalls at one point. I doubt conditions favored any annular characteristics.

you sure? https://www.e-education.psu.edu/files/m ... al1002.pdf

Interesting article, thanks for sharing. I would like to see some microwave images from Edouard if anyone possibly has a link to some.

As for this year and any stunts this iteration of Edouard may pull, I think there's a possibility he might be a July major, which is an uncommon occurrence. I just think with the way this year has been setting up so far that things will kick off early, so I'm expecting a higher-than-normal chance that we get to the E storm before August.

I see! There might be some in the storm packet thingies? No clue though. Hm, what are you thinking for edouard though? analogs?

[DioBrando]

You're welcome dude! Oh yeah, Irma was definitely annular, especially from Sept 5 to Sept 6 2017!

I think the same, Ed might just do it early in July or August

i'm just having senses tingling at the back of my head he'll become the first major, you?

[Chris90]

You know, I just remembered that while major hurricanes in July are quite unusual, there's a name on this year's list that has achieved it twice: Bertha.

Bertha reached Cat 3 status in July 1996 and again in July 2008.

The July 2008 version set a record for being the longest lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic during the month of July, as well as a record for forming into a tropical storm the farthest east during the month of July.

I wonder if she could do it again this year? That would be truly remarkable.

I do think Bertha '96 and '08 would be good analogs for any possible majors during July this year. They were both MDR storms which I would favor for this year in July as opposed to Caribbean majors like Dennis or Emily in '05. I think the Caribbean will still be somewhat unfavorable in July. I think ENSO will still be working on cooling to cool-neutral levels at that point, plus I'm expecting decent EPAC activity in July. I think the Caribbean will be canceled out mostly until mid-to-late August.

[DioBrando]

You know, I just remembered that while major hurricanes in July are quite unusual, there's a name on this year's list that has achieved it twice: Bertha.

Bertha reached Cat 3 status in July 1996 and again in July 2008.

The July 2008 version set a record for being the longest lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic during the month of July, as well as a record for forming into a tropical storm the farthest east during the month of July.

I wonder if she could do it again this year? That would be truly remarkable.

I do think Bertha '96 and '08 would be good analogs for any possible majors during July this year. They were both MDR storms which I would favor for this year in July as opposed to Caribbean majors like Dennis or Emily in '05. I think the Caribbean will still be somewhat unfavorable in July. I think ENSO will still be working on cooling to cool-neutral levels at that point, plus I'm expecting decent EPAC activity in July. I think the Caribbean will be canceled out mostly until mid-to-late August.

not to mention but bertha 2020 being a cat 3 would follow the same zodiac pattern, right fire?

here's what i think, we'll have arthur, bertha, cristobal and dolly from may-july, then a huge lull until mid-august, methinks

[FireRat]

Guys that's true, if Bertha pulled a Cat 3 this year, it would be in the same chinese zodiac year as 2008 and 1996! Imagine if that pattern were to repeat again, that would be insane!
Maybe big Bertha might do it again, or Edouard even, depending on what kind of head start we get in 2020. You know, maybe it will be a race between Bertha and Edouard to see which one gets to be a major first!

Just based on the whole 'year of the Rat' thing and the last two such years, 1996/2008 being good analogs, I'd go with a July major, and then a hectic Late August through November. Maybe even a Nov major too, btw, kind of like Paloma 2008.

[aspen]

Signs are pointing towards a favorable early season, so perhaps we will get a Cat 2-3 Bertha this year. I’m betting she’ll either be a Gulf storm like Dolly ‘08, or a long-tracking Cape Verde fish storm like she was in 2008.

[DioBrando]

Signs are pointing towards a favorable early season, so perhaps we will get a Cat 2-3 Bertha this year. I’m betting she’ll either be a Gulf storm like Dolly ‘08, or a long-tracking Cape Verde fish storm like she was in 2008.

which are you leaning more towards?

[aspen]

Signs are pointing towards a favorable early season, so perhaps we will get a Cat 2-3 Bertha this year. I’m betting she’ll either be a Gulf storm like Dolly ‘08, or a long-tracking Cape Verde fish storm like she was in 2008.

which are you leaning more towards?

Maybe slightly towards a Gulf/Caribbean scenario, since I remember seeing some model runs forecasting enhanced convection in the region from May-July.

[DioBrando]

Guys that's true, if Bertha pulled a Cat 3 this year, it would be in the same chinese zodiac year as 2008 and 1996! Imagine if that pattern were to repeat again, that would be insane!
Maybe big Bertha might do it again, or Edouard even, depending on what kind of head start we get in 2020. You know, maybe it will be a race between Bertha and Edouard to see which one gets to be a major first!

Just based on the whole 'year of the Rat' thing and the last two such years, 1996/2008 being good analogs, I'd go with a July major, and then a hectic Late August through November. Maybe even a Nov major too, btw, kind of like Paloma 2008.

And it would be so weird if bertha 2020 becomes an mdr cat 3 that's long lasting

what do you have for bertha at the moment?

[DioBrando]

Signs are pointing towards a favorable early season, so perhaps we will get a Cat 2-3 Bertha this year. I’m betting she’ll either be a Gulf storm like Dolly ‘08, or a long-tracking Cape Verde fish storm like she was in 2008.

which are you leaning more towards?

Maybe slightly towards a Gulf/Caribbean scenario, since I remember seeing some model runs forecasting enhanced convection in the region from May-July.

i see, i see, how many systems could you see forming from now until august 1st?
i'm saying A-D
you?