Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

CSU opens the gate.

1. AMO becomes very strong in 2020 and no El Niño occurs (resulting in a seasonal
average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) activity of ~ 170) – 15% chance.
2. AMO is above average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 130) – 30% chance.
3. AMO is above average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 80) – 20% chance.
4. AMO is below average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 80) – 25% chance.
5. AMO is below average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 50) – 10% chance.

Typically, seasons with the above-listed ACE values have TC activity as follows:
170 ACE – 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
120 ACE – 12-15 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-3 major hurricanes
80 ACE – 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
50 ACE – 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricanes




CSU ... https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 019-12.pdf ... December 12

... https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 020-04.pdf ... 16/8/4 ... April 2

... https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-06.pdf ... 19/9/4 ... June 4

... https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-07.pdf ... 20/9/4... July 7

... https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-08.pdf ... 24/12/5... August 5

... https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-0805.pdf ... Two week Forecast from August 5-18

... https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-0819.pdf ... Two week Forecast August 20 - September 1

... https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-0902.pdf ... Two week forecast September 2-15

... https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-0916.pdf ... Two week forecast September 16-29

... https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-0930.pdf ... Two week forecast September 30 - October 13

... https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-1014.pdf ... Two Week forecast October 14-27

... https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-11.pdf ... Verification




TSR ...http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ec2020.pdf ... 15/7/4 ... December 19

... http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... pr2020.pdf ... 16/8/3 ... April 7

... https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2020.pdf ... 17/8/3

... http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ly2020.pdf ... 18/8/4... July 7

... http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ug2020.pdf ... ... 20/10/4 ... August 5


NOAA https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/busy ... d-for-2020 ... 13-19 named storms

... https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extr ... ntic-basin ... 19-25 named storms ... August 6


Crown Weather Services ... https://crownweather.com/index.php/disc ... -march-10/ ... 15/8/3 ... March 10

... 20/10/4 ... June 8




Joe Bastardi ... 14-20 named storms ... March 14



... 14-20 named storms ... April 7




AccuWeather ... https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... ast/705233 ... 14-18 named storms ... March 25

,,, https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... ce=twitter ,,, 14-20 named Storms ... May 7

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... oms/785249 ... 20-24 named storms ... July 30



Weather Tiger ...https://weathertiger.com/tropical/atlan ... pril-2020/ ... 16/8/4 ... April 13

... https://weathertiger.com/tropical/atlan ... june-2020/ ... 19/9/5 ... June 8



Weather Channel: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... ompany-ibm ... April 16



University of Arizona: http://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/fi ... l_2020.pdf ... 19/10/5 ... April 13



NC State: https://news.ncsu.edu/2020/04/2020-acti ... ne-season/ ... 18-22 named storms ...April 17


PENN State ... http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/resear ... e2020.html ... 19.8 named storms

UKMET https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... ntic2020... 13/7/3 ... May 19

[DioBrando]

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ec2020.pdf

TSR December 12, 2019 14 6 3

tsr slidin' in

[cycloneye]

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDec2020.pdf

TSR December 12, 2019 14 6 3

tsr slidin' in

The link does not work. On their site the December forecast has not shown up yet.

[DioBrando]

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDec2020.pdf

TSR December 12, 2019 14 6 3

tsr slidin' in

The link does not work. On their site the December forecast has not shown up yet.

Oh dear

[crownweather]

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDec2020.pdf

TSR December 12, 2019 14 6 3

tsr slidin' in

The link does not work. On their site the December forecast has not shown up yet.

Oh dear

TSR Forecast now up and published at http://tropicalstormrisk.com/.

Their forecast calls for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. ACE of 105.

[cycloneye]

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDec2020.pdf

TSR December 12, 2019 14 6 3

tsr slidin' in

The link does not work. On their site the December forecast has not shown up yet.

Oh dear

Is now up on the PDF form.

[crownweather]

I just posted our forecast for the 2020 Hurricane Season. For numbers, I'm going with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes with an ACE of 130.

I do think that the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico could be quite active this season.

Full forecast at https://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2020-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast-issued-march-10/

[mcheer23]

I just posted our forecast for the 2020 Hurricane Season. For numbers, I'm going with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes with an ACE of 130.

I do think that the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico could be quite active this season.

Full forecast at https://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2020-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast-issued-march-10/

2005 as an analog!

[MGC]

I just posted our forecast for the 2020 Hurricane Season. For numbers, I'm going with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes with an ACE of 130.

I do think that the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico could be quite active this season.

Full forecast at https://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2020-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast-issued-march-10/

2005 as an analog!

2005? Bite your tongue! It is looking to be a busy season......MGC

[TheStormExpert]

I just posted our forecast for the 2020 Hurricane Season. For numbers, I'm going with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes with an ACE of 130.

I do think that the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico could be quite active this season.

Full forecast at https://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2020-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast-issued-march-10/

2005 as an analog!

2005? Bite your tongue! It is looking to be a busy season......MGC

2005 is almost always mentioned at least once every year it seems as a potential analog season at some point. Has it ever verified? Fortunately not yet (at least since 2005). As long NOTHING goes near Florida and The Bahamas I’m good, we and them don’t need anymore trouble, especially the latter one.

Busy or not, be prepared!

[crownweather]

2005 as an analog!

2005? Bite your tongue! It is looking to be a busy season......MGC

2005 is almost always mentioned at least once every year it seems as a potential analog season at some point. Has it ever verified? Fortunately not yet (at least since 2005). As long NOTHING goes near Florida and The Bahamas I’m good, we and them don’t need anymore trouble, especially the latter one.

Busy or not, be prepared!

For me, I have never used 2005 as a analog year until this season. The ONI for 2004 into 2005 was a close match. Also, interestingly, the analogs off of Tropical Tidbits lists 2005 as #1 analog right now for sea surface temps.

[aspen]

2005? Bite your tongue! It is looking to be a busy season......MGC

2005 is almost always mentioned at least once every year it seems as a potential analog season at some point. Has it ever verified? Fortunately not yet (at least since 2005). As long NOTHING goes near Florida and The Bahamas I’m good, we and them don’t need anymore trouble, especially the latter one.

Busy or not, be prepared!

For me, I have never used 2005 as a analog year until this season. The ONI for 2004 into 2005 was a close match. Also, interestingly, the analogs off of Tropical Tidbits lists 2005 as #1 analog right now for sea surface temps.

https://i.imgur.com/oiRdKqC.png

https://i.imgur.com/zoeHFFQ.png

It’s definitely worrying to say the least seeing 2005 as the top analogue season, as well as 2004 and 2016 there too. However, 1973 and 2013 are also analogue seasons, and both were well below-average. Just because 2005 is on the list doesn’t mean we’re guaranteed to have a hyperactive season, even though the possibility still remains.

[wxman57]

Not one of Crown Weather's analog seasons matches any of ours, which include 1966, 1967, and 1977. I'm thinking fewer storms in the subtropics this season, which runs against 1995 tracks. MDR still fairly hostile, too. Our analogs average 9-10 named storms, but you have to add on 4-5 to account for all the short-lived, subtropical storms, and occluded lows that may get named.

[HurricaneEnzo]

So the analogs run the gamet from the most active season on record to one of the least active seasons on record. That narrows it down Clear as mud.

[aspen]

So the analogs run the gamet from the most active season on record to one of the least active seasons on record. That narrows it down Clear as mud.

I think we can (almost) confidently say this is going to be at least an average season; how much above average remains to be seen.

I’m personally not going to call for anything crazy (>16 named storms or >130 ACE) just yet, because we still have plenty of time for things to change in favor of a somewhat tamer year than the last few seasons. The possibility for something like that does remain, though.

[CyclonicFury]

Not one of Crown Weather's analog seasons matches any of ours, which include 1966, 1967, and 1977. I'm thinking fewer storms in the subtropics this season, which runs against 1995 tracks. MDR still fairly hostile, too. Our analogs average 9-10 named storms, but you have to add on 4-5 to account for all the short-lived, subtropical storms, and occluded lows that may get named.

Why do you think the MDR will be hostile?

[wxman57]

Not one of Crown Weather's analog seasons matches any of ours, which include 1966, 1967, and 1977. I'm thinking fewer storms in the subtropics this season, which runs against 1995 tracks. MDR still fairly hostile, too. Our analogs average 9-10 named storms, but you have to add on 4-5 to account for all the short-lived, subtropical storms, and occluded lows that may get named.

Why do you think the MDR will be hostile?

Positive NAO = increased easterly trades, upwelling of cooler water, low-level shear, dry air. As of today, the air there is very stable, much more stable than normal. If the NAO switches to negative, then that could change.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

[ncforecaster89]

Not one of Crown Weather's analog seasons matches any of ours, which include 1966, 1967, and 1977. I'm thinking fewer storms in the subtropics this season, which runs against 1995 tracks. MDR is still fairly hostile, too. Our analogs average 9-10 named storms, but you have to add on 4-5 to account for all the short-lived, subtropical storms, and occluded lows that may get named.

As you so well stated, can't forget to add the additional 4-5 named systems that wouldn't have been classified as tropical storms prior to the new millennium.

As such, 15-16 named storms is the new average. Doesn't take much increased activity to get 18-19 tropical storms in a reasonably favorable seasonal atmospheric and oceanic environment. That said, I doubt very seriously we see a repeat of 2005 within the next thirty years.

[aspen]

Not one of Crown Weather's analog seasons matches any of ours, which include 1966, 1967, and 1977. I'm thinking fewer storms in the subtropics this season, which runs against 1995 tracks. MDR still fairly hostile, too. Our analogs average 9-10 named storms, but you have to add on 4-5 to account for all the short-lived, subtropical storms, and occluded lows that may get named.

Why do you think the MDR will be hostile?

Positive NAO = increased easterly trades, upwelling of cooler water, low-level shear, dry air. As of today, the air there is very stable, much more stable than normal. If the NAO switches to negative, then that could change.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

So we’re potentially looking at a season with increased activity in the Gulf and Caribbean, and decreased activity in the MDR, correct? Or are there signs that the MDR could still be somewhat active?

[TheStormExpert]

Not one of Crown Weather's analog seasons matches any of ours, which include 1966, 1967, and 1977. I'm thinking fewer storms in the subtropics this season, which runs against 1995 tracks. MDR still fairly hostile, too. Our analogs average 9-10 named storms, but you have to add on 4-5 to account for all the short-lived, subtropical storms, and occluded lows that may get named.

Why do you think the MDR will be hostile?

Positive NAO = increased easterly trades, upwelling of cooler water, low-level shear, dry air. As of today, the air there is very stable, much more stable than normal. If the NAO switches to negative, then that could change.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

Didn't 2005 have a somewhat hostile MDR and look what happened. A hostile MDR or Tropical Atlantic doesn't mean a slow and less dangerous season like we've seen in the few years all it takes is one or two to make it a bad year! Btw, Wxman57 how are you so sure the NAO won't be negative come summer?