Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[SFLcane]

Not one of Crown Weather's analog seasons matches any of ours, which include 1966, 1967, and 1977. I'm thinking fewer storms in the subtropics this season, which runs against 1995 tracks. MDR still fairly hostile, too. Our analogs average 9-10 named storms, but you have to add on 4-5 to account for all the short-lived, subtropical storms, and occluded lows that may get named.

Well lets hope.. majority of the 1995 season recurved into the open atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

Not one of Crown Weather's analog seasons matches any of ours, which include 1966, 1967, and 1977. I'm thinking fewer storms in the subtropics this season, which runs against 1995 tracks. MDR still fairly hostile, too. Our analogs average 9-10 named storms, but you have to add on 4-5 to account for all the short-lived, subtropical storms, and occluded lows that may get named.

Well lets hope.. majority of the 1995 season recurved into the open atlantic.

But he’s banking on the +NAO to continue throughout the summer. That right there if it holds true would favor what Crown Weather said with more Caribbean cruisers and multiple Gulf of Mexico threats.

[Kingarabian]

Not one of Crown Weather's analog seasons matches any of ours, which include 1966, 1967, and 1977. I'm thinking fewer storms in the subtropics this season, which runs against 1995 tracks. MDR still fairly hostile, too. Our analogs average 9-10 named storms, but you have to add on 4-5 to account for all the short-lived, subtropical storms, and occluded lows that may get named.

Well lets hope.. majority of the 1995 season recurved into the open atlantic.

But he’s banking on the +NAO to continue throughout the summer. That right there if it holds true would favor what Crown Weather said with more Caribbean cruisers and multiple Gulf of Mexico threats.

Atmospherically speaking, something needs to change (and there's a lot of time for this to happen) to see an active Caribbean.
This graphic shows that a sinking standing wave is starting to set up right at the eastern edge of the E-Caribb due to strong and frequent amounts of positive VP anomalies:

[TheStormExpert]

Well lets hope.. majority of the 1995 season recurved into the open atlantic.

But he’s banking on the +NAO to continue throughout the summer. That right there if it holds true would favor what Crown Weather said with more Caribbean cruisers and multiple Gulf of Mexico threats.

Atmospherically speaking, something needs to change (and there's a lot of time for this to happen) to see an active Caribbean.
This graphic shows that a sinking standing wave is starting to set up right at the eastern edge of the E-Caribb due to strong and frequent amounts of positive VP anomalies:
https://i.imgur.com/VnRoVOC.png

Right now we need to get past that Spring Barrier to know what might be the most likely outcome this upcoming hurricane season. Until then it’s anyone’s guess!

[Steve]

Y’all that have accounts with weatherbell probably saw Joe Bastardi’s forecast he said was out last week for paid clients. But he was going to release it today or tomorrow with the Saturday summary. He said it was setting up to be an interesting season. So I’m looking forward to his take like I do every year. He’s not always that great, but it’s usually worth seeing his ideas along with all the other experts. What I’m looking at most this season is whether we go to neutral or La Niña conditions and also how warm the Atlantic is in the usual places you know will affect the tracks. That stuff never comes into play where you can be kind of sure until very early summer. Main takeaway from the winter was the strong SE ridge. You don’t really want to see that in August or September if you live in Florida, the southeast or gulf coast.

[CyclonicFury]

Y’all that have accounts with weatherbell probably saw Joe Bastardi’s forecast he said was out last week for paid clients. But he was going to release it today or tomorrow with the Saturday summary. He said it was setting up to be an interesting season. So I’m looking forward to his take like I do every year. He’s not always that great, but it’s usually worth seeing his ideas along with all the other experts. What I’m looking at most this season is whether we go to neutral or La Niña conditions and also how warm the Atlantic is in the usual places you know will affect the tracks. That stuff never comes into play where you can be kind of sure until very early summer. Main takeaway from the winter was the string SE ridge. You don’t really want to see that in August or September if you live in Florida, the southeast or gulf coast.

Is he calling for a dead MDR and high risk of a New England hurricane landfall like usual?

[tolakram]

Weatherbell

-There are many similarities to some notable hyperactive seasons.
-A warm Atlantic Basin is already in place and no El Niño is expected.
-In April we will weight the analogs.
-Our first outlook is for a big season.

Total Storms 14-20
Hurricanes: 7-11
Major Hurricanes: 3-6
ACE: 145-195

[Steve]

That’s big ACE which means majors. They show 3-6. I haven’t looked at anything but what you posted, but there have to be several threats to the continent and the islands with those kinds of numbers.

[SFLcane]

Weatherbell

-There are many similarities to some notable hyperactive seasons.
-A warm Atlantic Basin is already in place and no El Niño is expected.
-In April we will weight the analogs.
-Our first outlook is for a big season.

Total Storms 14-20
Hurricanes: 7-11
Major Hurricanes: 3-6
ACE: 145-195

Monster season!

[CrazyC83]

0/0/0. The coronavirus shuts down the Atlantic. (Oh we can wish...)

[Steve]

0/0/0. The coronavirus shuts down the Atlantic. (Oh we can wish...)

...just when you thought it was safe

[Big O]

Not one of Crown Weather's analog seasons matches any of ours, which include 1966, 1967, and 1977. I'm thinking fewer storms in the subtropics this season, which runs against 1995 tracks. MDR still fairly hostile, too. Our analogs average 9-10 named storms, but you have to add on 4-5 to account for all the short-lived, subtropical storms, and occluded lows that may get named.

I'm not sure if your analogs are used for possible landfall spots or just for total numbers of storms. If they are, I've noticed some commonalities with Crown Weather's analogs. Crown Weather's analogs include 1933 and 2005, while your analogs include 1967, 1977.

1933: Three storms, including the Great Cuba-Brownsville Hurricane of 1933, made landfall at or near Brownsville, Texas.

2005: Most likely an outlier analog, but includes Hurricane Emily, which made landfall in northeastern Mexico, near the Texas/Mexico border.

1967: Hurricane Beulah makes landfall in Brownsville.

1977: Hurricane Anita makes landfall in northeastern Mexico.

[WeatherEmperor]

Does anybody know when CSU will release their April forecast?


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[USTropics]

Does anybody know when CSU will release their April forecast?


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April 2nd - https://tropical.colostate.edu/

[Astromanía]

Not one of Crown Weather's analog seasons matches any of ours, which include 1966, 1967, and 1977. I'm thinking fewer storms in the subtropics this season, which runs against 1995 tracks. MDR still fairly hostile, too. Our analogs average 9-10 named storms, but you have to add on 4-5 to account for all the short-lived, subtropical storms, and occluded lows that may get named.

I'm not sure if your analogs are used for possible landfall spots or just for total numbers of storms. If they are, I've noticed some commonalities with Crown Weather's analogs. Crown Weather's analogs include 1933 and 2005, while your analogs include 1967, 1977.

1933: Three storms, including the Great Cuba-Brownsville Hurricane of 1933, made landfall at or near Brownsville, Texas.

2005: Most likely an outlier analog, but includes Hurricane Emily, which made landfall in northeastern Mexico, near the Texas/Mexico border.

1967: Hurricane Beulah makes landfall in Brownsville.

1977: Hurricane Anita makes landfall in northeastern Mexico.

I'm so worried for my México

[plasticup]

Not one of Crown Weather's analog seasons matches any of ours, which include 1966, 1967, and 1977. I'm thinking fewer storms in the subtropics this season, which runs against 1995 tracks. MDR still fairly hostile, too. Our analogs average 9-10 named storms, but you have to add on 4-5 to account for all the short-lived, subtropical storms, and occluded lows that may get named.

Well lets hope.. majority of the 1995 season recurved into the open atlantic.

Five of those storms in the "open atlantic" impacted Bermuda.

[SFLcane]

Another busy atlatntic hurricane season outlook this time from Accuweather.



https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... ast/705233

[cycloneye]

Another busy atlatntic hurricane season outlook this time from Accuweather.

https://i.imgur.com/TMI2A9i.jpg

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... ast/705233

Thanks Adrian. Is now up on the list at first post What? 2005???

[WeatherEmperor]

Another busy atlatntic hurricane season outlook this time from Accuweather.



https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... ast/705233

I find it interesting that they mention 2005 as a possible analog in their forecast. That isnt good...


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[crownweather]

Another busy atlatntic hurricane season outlook this time from Accuweather.

https://i.imgur.com/TMI2A9i.jpg

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... ast/705233

I find it interesting that they mention 2005 as a possible analog in their forecast. That isnt good...


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I'm really curious to see what other analog years they're thinking besides 1980 and 2005.

As I wrote in my own forecast a couple of weeks ago, I'm going with 1933, 1952, 1953, 1959, 1979, 1990, 1995, 1998, 2005 and 2007.