Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[TheStormExpert]

Kinda goes to show how even having an extremely favorable background state doesn't guarantee a ton of majors, everything has to go right for that to happen... Laura and Teddy are examples of a few that found those pockets where everything was ripe for them to explode. Everything else has just spun up, then spun quickly back down for the most part... Except Paulette who may still be out there in 2030

For a storm who seems to want to hang on forever as a ghost it too had a decent shot at major status if it wasn’t for that pesky smoke from the California wildfires.

In my opinion this season wasn’t too bad. At least compared to what it was forecasted to be in early August. I mean we had Laura but even she struck a rural area of SW Louisiana. And Sally was eventful but only a mid-grade Cat.2.

Yeah we very easily could be at 4 majors right now. So even though it has mostly been quantity over quality overall, we've definitely had quality storms this year

This year has had some quality. Every storm this season has struggled with something at one point in its life.

Wouldn’t surprise me if we made it to 30 named storms and still only see two majors.

[MarioProtVI]

For a storm who seems to want to hang on forever as a ghost it too had a decent shot at major status if it wasn’t for that pesky smoke from the California wildfires.

In my opinion this season wasn’t too bad. At least compared to what it was forecasted to be in early August. I mean we had Laura but even she struck a rural area of SW Louisiana. And Sally was eventful but only a mid-grade Cat.2.

Yeah we very easily could be at 4 majors right now. So even though it has mostly been quantity over quality overall, we've definitely had quality storms this year

This year has had some quality. Every storm this season has struggled with something at one point in its life.

Wouldn’t surprise me if we made it to 30 named storms and still only see two majors.

October will probably produce one more major and given La Niña I think we shouldn’t write that off yet.

[al78]

Took the words out of my mouth. This favorable has been favorable for TCG but not much intensification outside of the small handful such as Laura, Teddy, and a few others.

I said last month how this season reminds me a lot of 2012 on steroids in a sense as it too saw a high quantity of named storms, 10 hurricanes, but only 2 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 133. So far we’re sitting at around 105 ACE units.

Can you imagine if October and November made up for the expected majors and ACE lmao! Hmmm, if you think this season is like 2012 on steroids, then I wonder if the centerpiece storm of the season will come in Late October, like Sandy did that year.


Food for thought, gonna be an interesting month and possibly early November too IMO.

Yes it's not over until its over, there is always a chance of a Mitch 1998 like monster, or Michelle 2001 or Sandy 2012. It doesn't look like Gamma is going to be that storm, it is another one about to be hampered by land interaction, shear and dry air if the NHC forecast is correct.

[cycloneye]

The final two week forecast from CSU from October 14 thru October 27 is posted on the List at first post of thread.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1333448269221879808

[MarioProtVI]

Took the words out of my mouth. This favorable has been favorable for TCG but not much intensification outside of the small handful such as Laura, Teddy, and a few others.

I said last month how this season reminds me a lot of 2012 on steroids in a sense as it too saw a high quantity of named storms, 10 hurricanes, but only 2 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 133. So far we’re sitting at around 105 ACE units.

Can you imagine if October and November made up for the expected majors and ACE lmao! Hmmm, if you think this season is like 2012 on steroids, then I wonder if the centerpiece storm of the season will come in Late October, like Sandy did that year.


Food for thought, gonna be an interesting month and possibly early November too IMO.

Got some explaining to do

[FireRat]

Lol yeah, wow and holy cow! What a season this ended up being! It's like it took StormExpert's 30 named comment to heart but infused the Caribbean with Nos and Monster drinks instead of seawater for October and November

I had a feeling the season would end with a bang, but not thermonuclear bombs like Eta and Iota... in NOVEMBER.


I don't think any of us will ever forget November 2020, and October was also pretty memorable with Delta and Zeta.

[ouragans]

Any idea of what time CSU's 2021 forecast is supposed to be published today?

[cycloneye]

Any idea of what time CSU's 2021 forecast is supposed to be published today?

I am going to make a new thread for 2021 forecasts shortly as the forecast is out.