2020 WPAC Season

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Hayabusa
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2020 WPAC Season

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 30, 2019 10:31 pm

2020 is almost here.

2019 lacked in super typhoons not to mention cat 5s than 2018 but 2019 produced two typhoons that went near T8s from ADT, namely Hagibis and Halong.

2019 has 29 named storms same number as 2018 including the crossover Hector, and wiki says 2019 is now the costliest typhoon season on record to which 2018 was the previous holder of that title.

Names for 2020

Vongfong
Nuri
Sinlaku
Hagupit
Jangmi
Mekkhala
Higos
Bavi
Maysak
Haishen
Noul
Dolphin
Kujira
Chan-hom
Linfa
Nangka
Saudel
Molave
Goni
Atsani
Etau
Vamco
Krovanh
Dujuan
Surigae
Choi-wan
Koguma
Champi
In-fa
Cempaka
Nepartak
Lupit
Mirinae
Nida
Omais


Most of the first 7 names on the list are big names, will natural climatology keep them at bay or will they live up to their names?

The 2010's decade started with the least active typhoon season on record but it made up by giving us 885 mb Megi thanks to recon. Will 2020 be an active typhoon season or produce record breakers?
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:49 pm

While we wait for the 2020 WPac Season to kick off, I ran a real quick script to make a lookup table that goes from JTWC one minute winds to JMA ten minute winds using T-Number equivalents from the Koba Table. That way, the two agencies estimates can be more easily compared based on the T#s that are likely responsible for the estimate. The script also rounds to the nearest 5 to match operational practices, but because of this, there are many instances where slightly different JTWC intensities will point to the same JMA intensity. For example, 135 kt and 140 kt from JTWC both round nearest to a 105 kt from JMA.

Just as an example, JMA estimated a 125 kt peak intensity for Haiyan '13, which is actually above the Koba T-8.0 intensity of 122 kt. Based on my conversion, that yields an expected 1 minute intensity of 175-180 kt from JTWC. Meranti '16 was also estimated by JMA at a 120 kt peak intensity. The conversion for that is 165-170 kt, which aligns perfectly with JTWC's own 170 kt.

JTWC JMA
---------------
15 kt | 15 kt
20 kt | 20 kt
25 kt | 30 kt
30 kt | 35 kt
35 kt | 45 kt
40 kt | 45 kt
45 kt | 50 kt
50 kt | 55 kt
55 kt | 55 kt
60 kt | 60 kt
65 kt | 65 kt
70 kt | 65 kt
75 kt | 70 kt
80 kt | 75 kt
85 kt | 75 kt
90 kt | 80 kt
95 kt | 80 kt
100 kt | 85 kt
105 kt | 85 kt
110 kt | 90 kt
115 kt | 95 kt
120 kt | 95 kt
125 kt | 100 kt
130 kt | 100 kt
135 kt | 105 kt
140 kt | 105 kt
145 kt | 110 kt
150 kt | 110 kt
155 kt | 115 kt
160 kt | 115 kt
165 kt | 120 kt
170 kt | 120 kt
175 kt | 125 kt
180 kt | 125 kt
185 kt | 130 kt


The conversion is a little wonky on the low end, so here it is going the other way down there.

JMA JTWC
---------------
15 kt | 15 kt
20 kt | 20 kt
25 kt | 20 kt
30 kt | 25 kt
35 kt | 30 kt
40 kt | 35 kt
45 kt | 40 kt
50 kt | 45 kt
55 kt | 50 kt
60 kt | 60 kt
65 kt | 65 kt
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:25 pm

If the recent ENSO predictions are true,the WPAC may not be very active or hyperactive but is still early. For sure it has been a slow start.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#4 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:29 am

https://www.hko.gov.hk/en/Press-Release ... velopments
On the annual weather outlook for Hong Kong in 2020, the HKO predicted that the tropical cyclone season may start in or after June in Hong Kong this year. It is expected that there will be four to seven tropical cyclones coming within 500 kilometres of Hong Kong this year, which is normal. The annual rainfall is expected to be normal to below normal.

In respect of the tropical cyclone forecast, the HKO will extend the forecast area of the "Tropical Cyclone Track Probability Forecast" eastward this year, from the current boundary of 140E longitude to 180E longitude. When a tropical cyclone is named in the extended area, the automatic "Tropical Cyclone Track Probability Forecast" webpage will show the probability of the tropical cyclone track in the coming nine days.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#5 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:04 pm

GFS tries to form a TC south of the Mariana islands in about 72 hours.
Peaks it @ 983mb while it moves west.

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:06 pm

We have Invest 93W.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:40 am

Robert Speta with his first forecast for the WPAC season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNtLz4C ... 7YL4Z67tDo
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#8 Postby aspen » Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:39 am

The GFS has a typhoon popping up by 300+ hours out. It’s been so long since I’ve seen even a model storm in the WPac — or anything in the WPac in general.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:55 pm

Hmmm

Image

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#10 Postby aspen » Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:11 pm


I think an MJO will be passing through the WPac around that time, although it’ll be weaker than when it was in the IO. That *could* help a strong storm form at that low latitude, where OHC is high enough to support a Category 5 hurricane, but it’s still a week or more out.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#11 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:59 pm

aspen wrote:

I think an MJO will be passing through the WPac around that time, although it’ll be weaker than when it was in the IO. That *could* help a strong storm form at that low latitude, where OHC is high enough to support a Category 5 hurricane, but it’s still a week or more out.


Image

Euro too

Image
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#12 Postby aspen » Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:07 am

The GFS continues to show development, and the Euro and CMC are picking up on it too. The next available name is Vongfong. Could this become a Super Typhoon too? We’ll have to wait and see.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#13 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:56 am

A forecast like it's in the middle of the season, could it be finally waking up?

Image

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:11 pm

12z ECMWF is more stronger.

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#15 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:24 pm

Starting to get signals on EPS too. Looks like there is a decent chance this is more than just model noise.

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:59 am

Hmmmmm

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#17 Postby aspen » Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:54 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Hmmmmm

https://i.imgur.com/O1egqWD.gif

The latest Euro run isn’t as aggressive but still picks it up. It’s also starting to appear on the CMC and NAVGEM models; both of them are also starting to pick up on the second cyclone the GFS wants to form.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#18 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri May 01, 2020 6:15 am

After 94W, model guidance are suggesting that one or two more low pressure area(s) could form to the east of the southern Philippines this early May. With the favorable MJO moving into the WPAC from the Indian Ocean, conditions in the basin this first-half of May could be better for these disturbances to develop further.

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#19 Postby Hayabusa » Fri May 01, 2020 9:53 pm

CPC forecast from Apr 28 they issued a high confidence TC development but...

Image

The tropical Eastern Hemisphere is active with a moderately strong MJO, Kelvin, and equatorial Rossby waves. The forecast period will begin with an equatorial Rossby wave moving through an active MJO over the eastern Indian Ocean. We have high confidence that the enhanced convection and horizontal shear that develops from this interaction will result in the development of a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal during Week-1. We also have high confidence that the interaction of this MJO and a Kelvin wave will result in the development of at least one tropical cyclone in a wide strip just southeast of the Philippines during Week-1. Several dynamical models suggest that two TCs could form within this strip during the week.


well? We still have 3 days to confirm this but models have backed off or could they suddenly bounce back again within that already near timeframe?
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#20 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue May 05, 2020 2:42 pm

While waiting for something, I make another table to look at. This one is the Koba table as it corresponds between wind and pressure. The first one has all the pressures rounded to the nearest 5 mb, in line with JMA operational practices, and the second one is the more raw whole value. The first one I think it particularly informative to look at. While JMA does make some adjustments to pressures based on things like storm size, this table is still largely the starting point for their intensity assignments, and many advisories have the verbatim wind/pressure matchup from it.

Vmax | Pmin
----------------
30 kt | 1000 mb
35 kt | 1000 mb
40 kt | 995 mb
45 kt | 990 mb
50 kt | 985 mb
55 kt | 980 mb
60 kt | 980 mb
65 kt | 970 mb
70 kt | 965 mb
75 kt | 960 mb
80 kt | 955 mb
85 kt | 950 mb
90 kt | 940 mb
95 kt | 935 mb
100 kt | 925 mb
105 kt | 920 mb
110 kt | 910 mb
115 kt | 900 mb
120 kt | 890 mb
125 kt | 885 mb
130 kt | 875 mb


30 kt, 1001 mb
35 kt, 998 mb
40 kt, 995 mb
45 kt, 991 mb
50 kt, 987 mb
55 kt, 982 mb
60 kt, 978 mb
65 kt, 972 mb
70 kt, 967 mb
75 kt, 961 mb
80 kt, 955 mb
85 kt, 948 mb
90 kt, 941 mb
95 kt, 934 mb
100 kt, 926 mb
105 kt, 918 mb
110 kt, 910 mb
115 kt, 901 mb
120 kt, 892 mb
125 kt, 883 mb
130 kt, 873 mb
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