2020 WPAC Season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
Like GFS (although backed down a bit), EURO is starting to show plenty of activity near the dateline.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
GFS continues to spew out strong cyclones.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
Looks like more activity is likely in the Philippine Sea in the coming weeks. Models continues to see a change in the pattern. Signalling the return of the monsoon especially north of 10N which is dominated by the easterly trade-wind flow.
Models did poorly with the triplets including a rapidly intensifying typhoon at landfall.
Won't be surprise if there are some more surprises in store.
Models did poorly with the triplets including a rapidly intensifying typhoon at landfall.
Won't be surprise if there are some more surprises in store.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3406
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
While there may be some surprise small TCs that may eventually become typhoons in the coming days or weeks, I think sinking air will just be predominant this August. The "peak" of this underperforming season could be in September.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
Tropical cyclone (TC) formation last week saw a notable uptick for the West Pacific basin, tied to: localized constructive interference of the low-frequency state and MJO, further presence of equatorial Rossby wave activity, and Kelvin waves to the east of the region.
While widespread dryness is forecast over much of the West and Central Pacific during the next two weeks, there are also some hints from the GFS of a weak TC developing around the 20th between 140-150E and 15-20N that cannot be ruled out, but confidence is insufficient to include a formation area in the present outlook.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
Large scale subsidence continues to hinder systems from really getting their act together. Here we see a broad circulation in the P.I sea and another in Eastern Micronesia. Forecast continues to show a few more coming from the CPAC then poof.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 260
- Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:50 pm
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:Large scale subsidence continues to hinder systems from really getting their act together. Here we see a broad circulation in the P.I sea and another in Eastern Micronesia. Forecast continues to show a few more coming from the CPAC then poof.
https://i.imgur.com/NPZl6pb.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/37aNjd1.gif
https://i.imgur.com/8VHGS8u.jpg
It’s really weird to see the WPAC (the king of all basins) so hostile...
3 likes
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
This year, TY 01W Vonfong began on May 11, which was the 7th latest.
TS 02W Nuri began on June 12, which was also the 7th latest.
Broken Record! For the first time in 62 years of data, the Western Pacific failed to spin up a tropical cyclone in the month of July.
Broken Record! TY 03W Hagupit started on August 1st, which beat the previous record latest 03W of July 27th.
TS 04W Sinlaku also emerged on August 1st, which was the 2nd latest, narrowly missing the record of August 2nd.
TS 05W Jangmi tied the record for the latest 05W, August 8.
Until now, all of these TC's were west of Micronesia, either in the Philippine Sea or the South China Sea. TS 06W, which was never named, broke that trend by forming north of Micronesia on August 9, which was the 5th latest.
TY 07W Mekkhala also started on August 9, which was also the 5th latest 07W.
We're still waiting for 08W. It will be a tough nut to crack, just take a look at the current rankings...
1) 1998 27 TC's TY 08W Stella September 12 (!)
2) 2010 20 TC's TS 08W Komapasu August 28
3) 1983 25 TC's TS 08W Dom August 19
4) 1975 25 TC's TY 08W Rita August 18
5) 2020 N/A August 13 (or later)
So, we've already locked in a slot in the top 5, but to get to number 1 we have to be cyclone free until the middle of next month... possible, but not likely.
Let's take a look at the first tropical cyclone in Micronesia though...
which we haven't had yet this year. Six were west, and one was north of Micronesia, defined as between the equator and 20N from 130E to 180. This includes the Republic of Palau, Yap state, Chuuk state, Pohnpei state, Kosrae, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Marianas.
1st TC of Micronesia, latest dates...
1) 2020: 13 August (or later, hasn't happened yet!)
2) 1973: 17 July, (went on to have 7 TC's in Micronesia)
3) 1983: 12 July, (went on to have 14 TC's in Micronesia)
4) 1998: 7 July, (went on to have 7 TC's in Micronesia)
4) 1984: 7 July, (went on to have 14 TC's in Micronesia)
6) 2016: 3 July, (went on to have 16 TC's in Micronesia)
So, the recent spurt of tropical cyclone development could prevent any further records in the whole West Pacific, however we could easily go on to set new record lows for Micronesia.
Just remember though, even in a really down season, it only takes one in just the right place... don't turn your back on the tropical cyclones.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We could potentially set records.
The numbers are staggering.
All those years in front of 2020 for the 8th storm went on to have 20-27 TC's. Even 1998 which didn't have it until September 12 still went on to finish the year with 27 TC's.
This will be a backloaded season.
TS 02W Nuri began on June 12, which was also the 7th latest.
Broken Record! For the first time in 62 years of data, the Western Pacific failed to spin up a tropical cyclone in the month of July.
Broken Record! TY 03W Hagupit started on August 1st, which beat the previous record latest 03W of July 27th.
TS 04W Sinlaku also emerged on August 1st, which was the 2nd latest, narrowly missing the record of August 2nd.
TS 05W Jangmi tied the record for the latest 05W, August 8.
Until now, all of these TC's were west of Micronesia, either in the Philippine Sea or the South China Sea. TS 06W, which was never named, broke that trend by forming north of Micronesia on August 9, which was the 5th latest.
TY 07W Mekkhala also started on August 9, which was also the 5th latest 07W.
We're still waiting for 08W. It will be a tough nut to crack, just take a look at the current rankings...
1) 1998 27 TC's TY 08W Stella September 12 (!)
2) 2010 20 TC's TS 08W Komapasu August 28
3) 1983 25 TC's TS 08W Dom August 19
4) 1975 25 TC's TY 08W Rita August 18
5) 2020 N/A August 13 (or later)
So, we've already locked in a slot in the top 5, but to get to number 1 we have to be cyclone free until the middle of next month... possible, but not likely.
Let's take a look at the first tropical cyclone in Micronesia though...
which we haven't had yet this year. Six were west, and one was north of Micronesia, defined as between the equator and 20N from 130E to 180. This includes the Republic of Palau, Yap state, Chuuk state, Pohnpei state, Kosrae, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Marianas.
1st TC of Micronesia, latest dates...
1) 2020: 13 August (or later, hasn't happened yet!)
2) 1973: 17 July, (went on to have 7 TC's in Micronesia)
3) 1983: 12 July, (went on to have 14 TC's in Micronesia)
4) 1998: 7 July, (went on to have 7 TC's in Micronesia)
4) 1984: 7 July, (went on to have 14 TC's in Micronesia)
6) 2016: 3 July, (went on to have 16 TC's in Micronesia)
So, the recent spurt of tropical cyclone development could prevent any further records in the whole West Pacific, however we could easily go on to set new record lows for Micronesia.
Just remember though, even in a really down season, it only takes one in just the right place... don't turn your back on the tropical cyclones.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We could potentially set records.
The numbers are staggering.
All those years in front of 2020 for the 8th storm went on to have 20-27 TC's. Even 1998 which didn't have it until September 12 still went on to finish the year with 27 TC's.
This will be a backloaded season.
2 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3406
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:This year, TY 01W Vonfong began on May 11, which was the 7th latest.
TS 02W Nuri began on June 12, which was also the 7th latest.
Broken Record! For the first time in 62 years of data, the Western Pacific failed to spin up a tropical cyclone in the month of July.
Broken Record! TY 03W Hagupit started on August 1st, which beat the previous record latest 03W of July 27th.
TS 04W Sinlaku also emerged on August 1st, which was the 2nd latest, narrowly missing the record of August 2nd.
TS 05W Jangmi tied the record for the latest 05W, August 8.
Until now, all of these TC's were west of Micronesia, either in the Philippine Sea or the South China Sea. TS 06W, which was never named, broke that trend by forming north of Micronesia on August 9, which was the 5th latest.
TY 07W Mekkhala also started on August 9, which was also the 5th latest 07W.
We're still waiting for 08W. It will be a tough nut to crack, just take a look at the current rankings...
1) 1998 27 TC's TY 08W Stella September 12 (!)
2) 2010 20 TC's TS 08W Komapasu August 28
3) 1983 25 TC's TS 08W Dom August 19
4) 1975 25 TC's TY 08W Rita August 18
5) 2020 N/A August 13 (or later)
So, we've already locked in a slot in the top 5, but to get to number 1 we have to be cyclone free until the middle of next month... possible, but not likely.
Let's take a look at the first tropical cyclone in Micronesia though...
which we haven't had yet this year. Six were west, and one was north of Micronesia, defined as between the equator and 20N from 130E to 180. This includes the Republic of Palau, Yap state, Chuuk state, Pohnpei state, Kosrae, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Marianas.
1st TC of Micronesia, latest dates...
1) 2020: 13 August (or later, hasn't happened yet!)
2) 1973: 17 July, (went on to have 7 TC's in Micronesia)
3) 1983: 12 July, (went on to have 14 TC's in Micronesia)
4) 1998: 7 July, (went on to have 7 TC's in Micronesia)
4) 1984: 7 July, (went on to have 14 TC's in Micronesia)
6) 2016: 3 July, (went on to have 16 TC's in Micronesia)
So, the recent spurt of tropical cyclone development could prevent any further records in the whole West Pacific, however we could easily go on to set new record lows for Micronesia.
Just remember though, even in a really down season, it only takes one in just the right place... don't turn your back on the tropical cyclones.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We could potentially set records.
The numbers are staggering.
All those years in front of 2020 for the 8th storm went on to have 20-27 TC's. Even 1998 which didn't have it until September 12 still went on to finish the year with 27 TC's.
This will be a backloaded season.
There is just too much subsidence in the basin right now, it would more than a week or two to make the environment more conducive for TC genesis. My money is on September for the next tropical cyclone in the WPAC, while we might see the strongest of the bunch by October.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
Last edited by euro6208 on Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
Monsoon trough lighting up.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
EURO and GFS continues with the train of blobs from the CPAC.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
So the WPAC produces 3 TS's to start off August then goes back to sleep...
Sleeping Giant.
Sleeping Giant.
3 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
Well.... that escalated quickly. Three active tropical systems now in the Western Pacific, seems they are trying to catch up to the Atlantic's season. But in all seriousness this has a lot to do with the arrival of the MJO with plenty of energy already in place.
Quoted from a poster
Mmm I don't get it. Is the Atlantic the main and only basin in the world? Seems like it.
Or is it all the hype, overacting from the media?
WPAC active most years but yet a single year in another basin gets more coverage.
2 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
Yes I mentioned this before. Makes you wonder if overall global cyclone activity (and I am taking ACE not number of storms) will be down this year including lower than expected ACE in the Atlantic. Either that or the Atlantic will make up for it in a big way.
0 likes
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
gatorcane wrote:
Yes I mentioned this before. Makes you wonder if overall global cyclone activity (and I am taking ACE not number of storms) will be down this year including lower than expected ACE in the Atlantic. Either that or the Atlantic will make up for it in a big way.
So far the north Indian Ocean Basin above average, Atlantic Basin also above average, both twice the average so far.
The PDO is currently negative, the reason why the big ACE producers of the NW & NE Pacific Basins are well below average along with a developing La Nina is not helping either.
4 likes
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
As i said before, the first decent storm to come out from this rut will likely get a boost. Look at all that heat. Warmest and most expansive waters in the world, which continues to grow.
Back on August 1
Current
Back on August 1
Current
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: bird, Category5Kaiju, KirbyDude25, NotSparta, TheAustinMan and 60 guests