2020 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

Some global models are sniffing low(s) spinning up around the Philippines as early as next week. A few ECMWF ensembles even develop a TS just before August. Strong signal from the CMC ensembles too. A potential monsoon gyre set-up from the CMC & ICON (CMC generates multiple disturbances from this down the road). Bottom line: looks like a pattern change will occur in the NWPac soon.

The end of July is closing in but we are yet to see a July named storm in the NWPac. Will a storm form just in time, or will the month end as the first July on record without a single named storm in the basin?

[dexterlabio]

https://i.imgur.com/3XalIAA.jpg

LOL and I thought EPAC would be with us in this inactivity.


Though seriously, thinking about it, it is not good timing to have an active tropical cyclone season with a pandemic still going on.

[euro6208]

The first decent storm to come out from this rut the WPAC is in right now will likely get a boost. Look at all that heat.

[euro6208]

WPAC cannot stay active every year. I mean every decade has at least one or two *slow* season. This is just normal. The energy has to eventually spread somewhere.

And this season is far from done.

Study shows that during la nina, there is a decrease in relative humidity in the mid-troposphere (during JAS) while the anomalous rapid development of cyclonic events (TC) is expected over the months of (OND) as feedback from moisture influx.

Higher mid-level troposphere moisture influx and warmer SST are responsible for rapid developments during (OND)

[Kingarabian]

The first decent storm to come out from this rut the WPAC is in right now will likely get a boost. Look at all that heat.

https://i.imgur.com/ea0ilZE.png

If Douglas can get there he'll be more than happy

[euro6208]

The first decent storm to come out from this rut the WPAC is in right now will likely get a boost. Look at all that heat.

https://i.imgur.com/ea0ilZE.png

If Douglas can get there he'll be more than happy

Definitely.

[Hayabusa]

There may be some tropical activity at the start of August and noga... navgem being navgem as always.
July is ending in less than a week still no named storm(s), the most nothingburger July on record is looming.



Coincides with the arrival of MJO, would be just as surprising if still no named TC forms from this and on average more TCs form in August than July.

[euro6208]

August is technically the heart of the season followed by September. Will be interesting to see how this evolves.

1951 to 2019 average

[1900hurricane]

Just for reference since I don't find named storms to always be the best metric for activity.

[euro6208]

There may be some tropical activity at the start of August and noga... navgem being navgem as always.
July is ending in less than a week still no named storm(s), the most nothingburger July on record is looming.



Coincides with the arrival of MJO, would be just as surprising if still no named TC forms from this and on average more TCs form in August than July.

MJO probably not coming anytime soon. By this time last week, it should be over the WPAC. It keeps getting pushed back.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1286988097956257792




 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1287002837348683776

[doomhaMwx]

Still looking probable that we'll see an uptick in tropical activity around the Philippines this last week of July to early August. The next two weeks or so could be the busiest period in the WPAC in a while as the returning monsoon trough results to increased vorticity in the region. For the next few days, models show a low pressure area forming east of the PHL which may approach the country later this week.

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

12Z



00Z

[euro6208]

00Z



06Z

[euro6208]

WPAC moving into the wet season setup.

Another reason this season has been quiet is because of the lack of monsoon, which means no westerlies.
.
In 'normal times', westerlies maintain these (weak) circulations until they move into more favorable patterns (or the more favorable patterns develop over them). So far, this seems to be existing (favorable upper air) just east of the Philippines.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1286439722416369664

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1287245011269099522

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1286678749002584069