2020 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

99W thread

Marianas system

[euro6208]

Next area to watch according to EURO and GFS as it enters the Philippine Sea next week. Both keep it weak for now.

In the long term,
models are confident in a second stronger disturbance moving into
the region some time near the end of next week.

[euro6208]

18z GFS totally delays the strong typhoon it's been showing to occur around 4/5/6 around or east of the Marianas. Instead it struggles to develop until it passes Guam and only peaks at 996 mb in the middle of the Philippine Sea.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has another major typhoon following behind 98W and 99W in the long range. Peaks at 949mb as it recurves.

[euro6208]

0z GFS has another major typhoon following behind 98W and 99W in the long range. Peaks at 949mb as it recurves.

That's the same system we been talking about for a few days.

[euro6208]

06z GFS coming in weaker for the Marianas. More likely a rain event.

Has future Atsani following Saudel, Molave (98w), and soon to be powerful Goni's (99w) footstep in ravaging the Philippines. Peak of 933 mb.

[euro6208]

EURO coming onboard with GFS's future Atsani. Has a low west of the Marianas on the 1st compared to a 997 mb GFS system on the 2nd in the P.I sea.

To think a few days ago and for several runs GFS was forecasting this to become a strong typhoon east of the Marianas or landfalling near Guam.

[euro6208]

GFS shifted 360 the past 2 runs. It develops yet another Major in the SCS mid range and keeps the aforementioned Marianas system weak and recurving instead of a westward track across the P.I sea.

[ManilaTC]

00z GFS wants to punish Luzon with 3 storms in a span of 13 days.

[Hayabusa]

Huh... GFS excited with the one behind 99W but it did the same thing with 99W.
GFS vs ECMWF, start at 120 tau

[Hayabusa]

Happy hour run coming in stronger

[euro6208]

At least this season has surpassed 2010 for the lowest number of TC which was 20. 2020 is now at 21 with potential for a few more.

ACE wise is phenomenally low. Lowest ACE was 109.9 set in 1999 and 2020 looks to beat that soon as it is nearing 100.

Not your regular WPAC season but I'd say this season is entertaining to watch unfold.

[Hayabusa]

Is it already here the one near the dateline, the November model storm?

[mrbagyo]

Is it already here the one near the dateline, the November model storm?

Looks like it. I can see some sign of rotation between 170 and 180E
(there's also a small insignificant naked eddy to the north)

[Hayabusa]

00Z both agreeing in developing the November storm

[euro6208]

This system is forecast to pass south of Guam on the 31st...there goes our trick o treating.

[euro6208]

Some extremely low pressures forecast from GFS on it's peak on or before landfall in the P.I.

12z 935 mb
18z 928 mb
00z 935 mb

06z 941 mb...

[euro6208]

Nice discussion on the future system. Another model war between GFS and EURO.

Pohnpei and Kosrae remained dry today as the near-equatorial trough
stayed west of Pohnpei and north of Kosrae. There are 2 circulations
of note on the trough, both east of Majuro. One is west of the
dateline and the other is east of the dateline. The circulations
remain rather loose while in Eastern Micronesia. Isolated showers
will become scattered at Majuro around Monday and at Kosrae and
Pohnpei around Tuesday as the general pattern of troughing shifts
westward. As a result of the rather loose organization of the
circulations, no winds higher than 15 kt are expected, and no seas
higher than 5 ft are forecast.


Chuuk remained fairly dry today as all the action was to the west.
Similarly, Yap and Koror were both in the land between. The
showers in the inflow for Tropical Storm Molave were west of Koror,
and the showers associated with the trough between Yap and Chuuk
were all west of Chuuk and east of Yap. This looks to remain true
at Yap and Koror through at least Tuesday. Koror was monitored for
island convection today, looks like the prevailing south flow was
a little too strong. Monday and Tuesday afternoons are still
possibilities though. The circulation from Eastern Micronesia gets
here around Thursday, and it starts to look not so loose anymore.
The GFS starts to tighten it up around Chuuk, while the ECMWF waits
a little longer. As a result, the GFS dumps a fair amount of rain
on Chuuk, the ECMWF substantially less so. In the final analysis,
both are rather rainy though, the GFS just more so. This will be
the main forecast problem going forward. For Yap and Koror, the
system gains enough latitude that it will not present much of a
threat to these islands.

[1900hurricane]

Think some of the more intense EPS solutions might be from this disturbance.

[euro6208]

Both EURO and GFS coming in weaker in their latest 12z and 18z runs.