2020 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#561 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:39 pm

More wet weather on the way for the islands.


Gentle winds near and west of the first circulation along with drier
air at mid levels should maintain relatively fair weather for Chuuk
and Pohnpei thru Tuesday morning, and Kosrae thru tonight. Sounding
data from Majuro last evening reveal gentle to moderate east-
southeast wind at the surface gradually backing to the northwest thru
400mb. This introduces cyclonic turning as air rises upward,
increasing vorticity at the low to mid levels. In response, pockets
of deep convection have been flaring up near the second circulation
and near-equatorial trough since late last night. Expect this pattern
to persist near Majuro thru Tuesday night. Most of the heaviest
showers have been outside the Majuro waters so far, and just under
half an inch of rain has fallen upon the Majuro airport overnight.
However, as convection becoming more widespread this evening and
Tuesday, they should begin to impact the capital and its waters.
Future shifts might consider adding heavy wording into Majuro`s near-
term forecast.

As the second circulation and near-equatorial trough shift westward
late tonight thru Tuesday night, this same wet and unstable pattern
will also reach Kosrae and Pohnpei by Tuesday evening, and Chuuk near
Wednesday. If this circulation begin to consolidate near Chuuk and
Pohnpei, both higher shower coverage and locally heavy downpours are
possible near these locations. On the other hand, surface ridging
should form to its east which will separate the eastern portion of
the near-equatorial trough. This will allow surface ridging to form
and provide improved weather near Majuro and Kosrae toward the
weekend.


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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#562 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:20 pm

Amazing what even an unfavorable la nina can do in a slow season. :eek:




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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#563 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:54 pm

I find it strange that the next name on the Atlantic list is ETA almost sounds similar to ETAU.

Assuming 99W and the future Marianas system gets the name, Goni and Atsani, the next name would be ETAU.

Just pure concidence.

Unlike ETA, ETAU has been used 3 times and all struck Japan.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#564 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:23 am

EURO back to beast mode and GFS continues a very strong typhoon.

Image
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#565 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:24 am

First signs of Etau?

Image
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#566 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:28 am

This is what separates the WPAC from the rest.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1320519470155243522


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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#567 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:40 am

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#568 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:49 am

JMA forecasting favorable velocity potential from the beginning of November to the 3rd week.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#569 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:05 am

Another victim of having no recon and the latest benefiting recon.

I might start a thread one day showing the bias of dvorak vs recon. Who's down? :lol:

I have seen many this season...

People complaining seem to forget.

Image

Image
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#570 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:08 am

I cannot imagine how much ACE is lost this year and past in the most active basin in the world.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#571 Postby NorthieStangl » Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:50 pm

Honestly I'm not impressed by either of the Eastern or the Western Pacific basins so far this year.

Sad about those floods in Vietnam and Cambodia after Linfa though. I cannot imagine having to deal with four heavy rainmakers within a month.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#572 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:26 pm

EURO starts developing Atsani faster in 144 hours and 973 mb at the end of run.

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#573 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:39 pm

12z and 18z GFS starts development in 90 hours and has a rapidly intensifying typhoon passing south of Guam on Halloween.

12z peaks at 932mb.

18z at 930 mb.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#574 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:32 pm

A circulation that is now over the Marshalls will move westward
through the week. Models are surprisingly consistent and in general
agreement this far out in the forecast with respect to this feature.
They suggest this circulation passing south of Guam by Saturday then
being west of the island by Sunday. It is predicted to bring
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the local area
Saturday and Sunday. At this time models hint that this circulation
may be a little stronger than the one that passed by on Monday. While
it is too early to tell what will eventually happen as there is many
days to go and many more model runs to pass through until that time.
At this time the models show the possibility of breezy conditions
next weekend.

The GFS, ECMWF and NavGem are all transforming this surface trough
and related circulations into a semi monsoonal system, linking it
with a tropical disturbance currently over the Philippine Sea by
Wednesday night or Thursday. The two circulations will probably
consolidate into one near Pohnpei and Chuuk.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#575 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:06 am

EURO peaks at 939 mb as it recurves east of Okinawa. Development in 72 hours.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#576 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:11 am

GFS ramps up by 66 hours and peaks at 932 mb before crashing into Taiwan.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#577 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:03 am

90W Thread

Finally it's here
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#578 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:17 am

99W/Goni could become a tiny-core system if the HWRF is right, very prone to massive swings in intensity (as exemplified by Delta earlier this month). 90W/Atsani is starting to look like it’ll finally be the Big One of the year, with aggressive short-range model support, quick genesis, and very favorable conditions that include SSTs nearing 31C. We could be looking at dual majors in the WPac on Halloween, which is a fitting way to cap off probably the craziest month of 2020 (so far).
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#579 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:35 am

euro6208 wrote:GFS ramps up by 66 hours and peaks at 932 mb before crashing into Taiwan.


Taiwan is not a usual target of tropical cyclone during the month of November and even less during Niña condition November - heck, most of those historical November landfalls in Taiwan occurred during the 50s and the 60s.

Philippines on the other hand is a magnet of major typhoon during the month of November even during La Nina
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#580 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:21 am

mrbagyo wrote:
euro6208 wrote:GFS ramps up by 66 hours and peaks at 932 mb before crashing into Taiwan.


Taiwan is not a usual target of tropical cyclone during the month of November and even less during Niña condition November - heck, most of those historical November landfalls in Taiwan occurred during the 50s and the 60s.

Philippines on the other hand is a magnet of major typhoon during the month of November even during La Nina



One of the strongest in the world, Super Typhoon Angela, hit the Philippines in November 1995, a moderate nina.

This WPAC season isn't done yet.
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