2020 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#581 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:48 am

Truly a loss in meteorology because of no recon.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#582 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:57 am

euro6208 wrote:
euro6208 wrote:2020 hasn't produce a category 5 yet (although Haishen could be upgraded post). Since 2000, the only year that didn't produce a Cat 5 was 2017.

WPAC has been producing Cat 5's since 1985 (I stopped in that year since i got tired).

I will look more into this or if someone else can.

Wow. World's most active basin.


Restarted this and went back to when JTWC started doing their ATCR in 1959.

Add in 1974 and 1977. Astonishing.

If 2020 doesn't produce one, it'll be only the 4th time in history.

Fun times to pass. Many people including myself didn't knew. :lol:


Goni or Atsani has the best chance to become a Category 5 operationally.

If not, we might have to look to November.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#583 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:54 pm

Happy hour run says continued activity in the long range but recent previous runs have been hinting something too :double:
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#584 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:42 pm

Here comes Etau with development in 216 hours east of the Marianas.

Peak

Image
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#585 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:46 pm

0z GFS wants to kill the Philippines. Cat 2 Goni, Cat 4 Atsani, Cat 1/2 Etau, and Cat 3 Vamco! GEEZ! I know they get hit a lot but 5 storms in a row (I guess 6 counting Saudel) is unreal
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#586 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:28 am

983 mb landfall Etau and 962 mb Vamco Luzon in a span of 4 days!
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#587 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:21 am

06z GFS drops Vamco but has Etau developing sooner, 180 hours, and peaks it at 958 mb east of Taiwan.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#588 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:48 am

Even the CMC and ICON now on board with Etau.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#589 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:11 pm

18Z it's back, clipping Northeastern Cagayan
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#590 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:18 pm

Vorticity is increasing near the Marshall Islands. 91W?

Image
Image
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#591 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:51 pm

EURO now on board with Etau. Has a well defined 850mb signature over the Marianas in 240 hours.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#592 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:52 pm

Image
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#593 Postby Weather Dude » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:18 am

Following behind Goni and Atsani, 0z GFS has a weak system (Etau?) following close behind with another weak system (Vamco?) close behind that. Run ends with two more weak systems forming, one over the Philippines and the other out closer to the dateline.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#594 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:45 am

Image

With 2 major typhoons looming, 2020 will surpass 1999 and 2010 with ACE now above 104.

I hate to think what will happen next year.

2020 is just the start as double consecutive years like this year after a high ACE year, it goes up. :eek:


1971 379.726
1972 413.043
1973 148.09
1974 205.287
1975 170.97
1976 301.265
1977 163.93
1978 236.93
1979 278.36
1980 237.785
1981 227.778
1982 356.105
1983 219.702
1984 274.743
1985 231.445
1986 334.902
1987 356.632
1988 227.94
1989 306.125
1990 382.502
1991 414.502
1992 473.642
1993 271.785
1994 462.75
1995 261.788
1996 425.902
1997 589.095
1998 156.46
1999 109.888
2000 244.412
2001 315.842
2002 390.58
2003 336.86
2004 482.09
2005 309.945
2006 321.735
2007 220.075
2008 179.4
2009 279.22
2010 121.397
2011 190.412
2012 303.315
2013 277.29
2014 278.452
2015 465.56
2016 263.155
2017 170.455
2018 361.365
2019 266.446
2020 104.4
Last edited by euro6208 on Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:40 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#595 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:21 am

Models becoming quiet.

No signs of Etau and Vamco.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#596 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:42 am

Following up on the ACE totals for La Nina years.

2020 definitely in the bottom but season isn't over yet. Lots of potential.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1984 274.743 Weak

2016 263.155 Weak

1995 261.788 Moderate

2007 220.075 Strong

1983 219.702 Weak

1975 170.97 Strong

2017 170.455 Weak

1998 156.46 Strong

2010 121.397 Strong

1999 109.9 Strong

2020- 104.4 ?

*No reliable ACE for 1970
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#597 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:45 am

This season is already at 19/10/5 excluding Goni and Atsani.

When all is said and done...21/12/7...
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#598 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:58 pm

Happy hour run keeps it active through the end of run (2nd week of November)
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#599 Postby tiger_deF » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:37 pm

While there has been a pretty prolific generation of systems considering the La Nina conditions (likely due to off the charts SST's and OHC), the intensity has absolutely been lacking. I wouldn't be surprised if the Atlantic matches the number of major hurricanes/severe typhoons with Eta this week.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#600 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:02 am

euro6208 wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
euro6208 wrote:2020 hasn't produce a category 5 yet (although Haishen could be upgraded post). Since 2000, the only year that didn't produce a Cat 5 was 2017.

WPAC has been producing Cat 5's since 1985 (I stopped in that year since i got tired).

I will look more into this or if someone else can.

Wow. World's most active basin.


Restarted this and went back to when JTWC started doing their ATCR in 1959.

Add in 1974 and 1977. Astonishing.

If 2020 doesn't produce one, it'll be only the 4th time in history.

Fun times to pass. Many people including myself didn't knew. :lol:


Goni or Atsani has the best chance to become a Category 5 operationally.

If not, we might have to look to November.




Just like that. Goni becomes a Cat 5 monster. 2020 continues the streak.
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