2020 WPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18327
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#621 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:01 pm

A wet weather pattern is developing over the western half of
Micronesia. A circulation could be found near 3N143E this morning.
Satellite imagery showed spotty coverage of showers and thunderstorms
associated with this feature. The circulation is nearly stationary
but is expected to move westward and be near Palau by Saturday.
Models show showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage as the
system moves westward. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will begin at Yap tonight and continue through Sunday. Similar
conditions will begin at Palau Thursday and also continue through
Sunday. Improving conditions are expected at these two locations
Monday. At this time models keep the circulation relatively weak but
periods of heavy showers are expected at the two locations. Models
hint at gusty winds through the period of inclement weather. The
gusty winds may create choppy seas.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18327
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#622 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:13 pm

Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2034
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#623 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:32 am

06Z GFS wants to develop two named systems with one strong typhoon, another Goni and Atsani duo? :double:
0 likes   
ヤンデレと寝取られ組み合わせ!!

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1712
Age: 22
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City / Benguet, PHL
Contact:

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#624 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:36 am

0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18327
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#625 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:27 am

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

JTWC is at 6 TS's for October. Atsani didn't become a TS until Nov 2.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18327
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#626 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:32 am

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18327
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#627 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:39 am

Etau on the left and Vamco on the right. Deepest run so far.

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18327
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#628 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:46 am

Pretty remarkable agreement with the globals.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18327
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#629 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:49 am

A monsoon like pattern developing across Micronesia.

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18327
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#630 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:54 am

As indicated in the previous forecast
it still looks like most of the energy from the approaching trade-
wind disturbance will pass south of the Guam coastal waters late
Thursday night through Friday. This is consistent between the various
models. One significant difference is what happens after the initial
passage where the GFS takes energy from the surface trough currently
near Pohnpei and joins the disturbance, creating trough of low
pressure that pushes south of the Marianas starting on Saturday.
Each run, though, shows the meeting farther to the west and farther
south...closer to Yap. The ECMWF does not show this impulse at all.

A broad circulation is centered near 6N141E producing widespread
spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms. Satellite imagery shows
little evidence of any organized convection within the circulation
with most of the showers occurring along the periphery. Models
indicate a tighter circulation center southeast of Yap may develop,
primarily in the GFS, on Thursday night and passing through by
Saturday. The difference is GFS is trying extend the trough back
east of Yap on Saturday in response from the arrival of the low
pressure through currently in the vicinity of Pohnpei. This would
help create an area of southwest monsoon winds for Palau and Yap
until Monday morning. The ECMWF does little with the Pohnpei energy
other than to bring in some mid-level vorticity which could trigger a
thunderstorm or two. The ECMWF does not hold the circulation back and
keeps moving it on through the southern Philippines.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18327
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#631 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:41 pm

EURO deepens the SCS system stronger out of the two, a significant typhoon affecting Vietnam.

GFS continues with it's previous forecast.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18327
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#632 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:23 am

Here comes the first system.

92W thread
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18327
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#633 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:41 am

The second system should be interesting. GFS starts ramping it up by 66 hours and peaking at 944 mb with another Taiwan landfall.

EURO does nothing with it.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18327
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#634 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:48 am

Literally all of the globals supports GFS's forecast of the 2nd system being stronger.

EURO is the lone model.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18327
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#635 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:26 pm

Now EURO hops aboard.

Image

GFS peak 944 mb.

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18327
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#636 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:46 pm

Ouch. EURO with a 981 mb typhoon landfall over flood ravaged Vietnam.

GFS landfalls 960 mb into Luzon.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2919
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#637 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:53 am

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1379
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Sweeny Texas Brazoria County

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#638 Postby underthwx » Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:31 am

euro6208 wrote:Ouch. EURO with a 981 mb typhoon landfall over flood ravaged Vietnam.

GFS landfalls 960 mb into Luzon.

That's too much Euro!....how many typhoons has that area of Vietnam experienced this season?
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2919
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#639 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Nov 07, 2020 8:38 am

HWRF :eek:
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5934
Age: 29
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Bryan/Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#640 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:47 pm

Wind shear is pretty strong across much of the open WPac east of the Philippines. That's pretty normal with seasonal but strong zonal subtropical ridging stretching across the basin. Development is more likely near the western edge of the ridge where shear lets up, near the Philippines and in the South China Sea.

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: aspen, Bing [Bot] and 15 guests