2020 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Will this season be like the 2019 one that was average on ACE or will be below average or hyperactive? Will will find out so here is the thread to follow this journey.

[Astromanía]

I don't know what to think, after a chain of active seasons since 2014 with some average between (2017 and 2019) I think it's time for a below average season, I don't want that tho, It's rare to see the names from the epic 2014 season being used this season, and to think this will be and active or hiperactive season again with those names, I don't know I doubt, but whatever could happen. The water temperatures anomalies in el niño regions are still from light warm to light cool every week so a neutral conditions will persist until spring, the question it's what will happen after? will la niña develop? or another weak or strong niño will depelop?, La niña and el niño plays a big rule in the basin tho high activity could happen in la niña but is much less likely. I just want a more interesting season compared to last year one lol , but I predict a below average one , I hope EPAC surprise us and change my mind as time goes and conditions changes.

[Astromanía]

By the way, the names that sounds scary for me this season are:
Cristina
Iselle
Julio
Norbert
Rachel
Yolanda
Vance
Douglas
Elida
Hernan
Lowell
Amanda

[cycloneye]

By the way, the names that sounds scary for me this season are:
Cristina
Iselle
Julio
Norbert
Rachel
Yolanda
Vance
Douglas
Elida
Hernan
Lowell
Amanda

When you say scary,you mean landfalling ones in Mexico,CentralAmerica?

[Astromanía]

By the way, the names that sounds scary for me this season are:
Cristina
Iselle
Julio
Norbert
Rachel
Yolanda
Vance
Douglas
Elida
Hernan
Lowell
Amanda

When you say scary,you mean landfalling ones in Mexico,CentralAmerica?

I mean the ones that could be intense and/or make landfall in Mexico, Central America or Hawaii, just for the feeling that names give me, nothing based on proofs, anyway I don't see next season reaching till Y letter anyway, but we will see

[aspen]

If 2020 continues the alternating pattern of hyperactive and near-average seasons that began in 2016, then this could be one very exciting season. Hopefully it’ll make up for the pathetic start to last decade that was the 2010 season.

[Kingarabian]

Tough call to be honest. Could be another 2019 or a repeat of 2018. So far early indicators show a similar setup to 2018 and 2019. Most of the activity may again be confined west of 95W. Comes down to the placement of easterly and westerly wind shear.

[Astromanía]

Maybe will be another active season, it seems el niño could develop again after all

[Chris90]

I'm leaning towards a less active season for the EPAC right now, and I'll be completely honest, my reasoning has no scientific merit. Due to it only being January, we have a long way to go until the official start of the season, and conditions can change a lot between then and now. Therefore, right now, my reasoning is based purely on how this particular name list performs, haha. This particular name list seems to like to be active every other time it is used.

1990 - busy season, 21/16/6 with an ACE of 245 (4th highest on record for the basin)

1996 - slower season, 9/5/2, one of the lowest ACE totals ever for the basin

2002 - 15/8/6, with 3 hurricanes reaching Cat 5 that year and ACE near to slightly above average. One of those Cat 5 storms was Kenna, which had a dropsonde record 189kts in the eyewall, just 8mb above the surface.

2008 - 17/7/2 with below average ACE. Storm totals were up there, but storms were struggling to reach hurricane status and major status.

2014 - A memorable season. The season before the crazy 2015 season with the Super Nino, 2014 went 22/16/9 with ACE of 199. Produced Amanda which broke May intensity records, and a Cat 5 with Marie (also my current avatar as an aside.)

Since this list seems to like to follow a pattern of above average, below average, above average, etc...
I'm going to guess this season is below average since 2014 was above average and prolific.
I know there is some evidence we may be setting up for a Niño, and I'm not discrediting that, but my little gut feeling is things will reverse in the spring and we'll start heading for cool neutral to La Nina. I think EPAC will be below this year, and the ATL is going to be the more active basin.

[Astromanía]

it's funny because it's time that both basins, ATL and EPAC, come with a below average season, but we will see

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1229457983664295939

[Kingarabian]

Indicators so far are pointing towards the EPAC having an average or below average season. Euro seasonal is showing the bulk of TC activity will be near 140W which probably means very little long trackers. EPAC is always hard to predict but I feel more confident that this will be a down year.

-PDO signature is in place and with that, the EPO has been largely positive meaning persistent high pressure SW of California that is promoting cooler waters and during hurricane season could promote stronger shear. Models have the EPO dipping negative but this needs to be true for an extended period of time and not just for a week.

Current MJO activity and forecasts are not supportive of the ENSO regions remaining this warm much longer that it offsets the -PDO. I'll reassess next month but I doubt anything will change.

[Astromanía]

Regardless of activity I'm pretty sure at least one system Will cause trouble in México, that's how EPAC works, but yeah it's sad that we have to deal with potential destructive cyclones on ATL and not the beautiful fishing longtracker cyclones on EPAC this year.

[Kingarabian]

Regardless of activity I'm pretty sure at least one system Will cause trouble in México, that's how EPAC works, but yeah it's sad that we have to deal with potential destructive cyclones on ATL and not the beautiful fishing longtracker cyclones on EPAC this year.

Yeah it's tough to say how the season will pan out. But the EPAC is always capable of producing some dangerous storms for Mexico.

I mean 2018 has some similarities with present conditions to be honest... so it's not impossible that we could squeeze out warm neutral... but I don't think it's likely. During Spring 2018, the PDO was cool, Nino regions were much cooler, similar OHC values and a similar unfavorable lower level wind pattern. However we do currently have a cooler PMM that could be the main inhibitor.

2018 March 10 SSTs:


2020 March 10 SSts:


Subsurface comparisons:


2018 Spring 850mb wind:


2018 March 10 850mb wind:

[Chris90]

If things pan out the way some are talking, the EPAC better get moving a lot faster than it did last year or it may not have a season at all before the Atlantic takes over. If a Niña does start strengthening over the coming months, activity will probably be dependent on how fast it progresses. We might be able to scratch out a decent front loaded season during May-July before the Atlantic takes over depending on how fast the ocean and atmosphere are moving towards cooler ENSO conditions, assuming that things even do head that way. 6-8 weeks from now we might be talking about a potential Niño again, who knows? If things still look this way come May 1st though, I'm definitely going to be putting more of my eggs in the Atlantic basket.

I'm thinking the strongest storm of the 2020 EPAC season will probably occur sometime between June 15th-July 15th though, similar to Barbara last year, or the 2010 season when both major hurricanes that year occurred in June and then there were no further majors that season.

[Astromanía]

Yep early high activity on this basin it's possible before the Atlantic takes the lead this year with the expected transition to la niña, I mean even an early cat 5 it's possible a la Celia in 2010 as you said

[Kingarabian]

By April 10-15 a CCKW/MJO pulse will be moving over the EPAC and will get quite strong.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1246415948359360512




I wonder if we could see a preseason system form. Water temps support TC development. Would come down to shear.

[Kingarabian]

There will be a WWB in the EPAC as a result. Looking at previous WWB's this year, we've seen a decent amount of TC disturbances in association, including Harold in the SPAC.

[Astromanía]

I don't know if a system could develop at that time but I'm pretty sure an invest will form out of it, early systems along with late systems on EPAC are dangerous for México. Even with a possible below average or average season expected on EPAC this year, I expect a very early start for this season compared to what we saw last year

[Yellow Evan]

Very very difficult to get a preseason storm off Mexico due to lack of sufficient ITCZ till around mid-May.