2020 EPAC Season

[Aric Dunn]

It appears the southern portion of the gyre has developed and is moving counterclockwise.
A small 700mb vort has popped up just SE of the convection.

I am assuming you are talking about the SW carribean side?

Appears the extension on the gyre has produced a more defined 850mb circ with the deep convection that could work to the surface before it crosses into the pacific. that would speed up development.

[tailgater]

Yes there is some clear rotation in the lower cloud field in Eastern part of Honduras. Anyone have good link to this area's TPW

[Aric Dunn]

Yes there is some clear rotation in the lower cloud field in Eastern part of Honduras. Anyone have good link to this area's TPW

I was speaking of just east of Costa RIca moving north..

but here is the TPW link.

https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/I1qCq9

[GCANE]

It appears the southern portion of the gyre has developed and is moving counterclockwise.
A small 700mb vort has popped up just SE of the convection.

I am assuming you are talking about the SW carribean side?

Appears the extension on the gyre has produced a more defined 850mb circ with the deep convection that could work to the surface before it crosses into the pacific. that would speed up development.

I did an animation of 700mb vort from the CIMSS site.
It looks like a series of vorts in the EPAC moving east in the last few frames.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... _loop.html

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu May 28 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles south of the coasts of
Central America and southern Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it drifts
northward.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
beginning late this week and continuing through the weekend. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain. See products from your
local weather office for additional information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Beven/Latto

[tailgater]

Yes there is some clear rotation in the lower cloud field in Eastern part of Honduras. Anyone have good link to this area's TPW

I was speaking of just east of Costa RIca moving north..

but here is the TPW link.

https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/I1qCq9

Yes just pointing out that lower level clouds in eastern Honduras moving north to south, not there was a circulation there. Thanks for the link.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF likes EPAC with no crossover. There was a intent but went back.

[TheProfessor]

12z ECMWF likes EPAC with no crossover. There was a intent but went back.

https://i.imgur.com/6MHahqC.gif

Some energy gets left behind, which the Euro tries to spin up at the end of the run.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF likes EPAC with no crossover. There was a intent but went back.

https://i.imgur.com/6MHahqC.gif

Some energy gets left behind, which the Euro tries to spin up at the end of the run.

Yes saw that. It will be interesting the next runs to see how things evolve in this complicated CAG thing.

[GCANE]

Convection east of Nicaragua has been firing all day.
Has picked up some interesting features last hour or so.
Cirrus has expanded and outflow appears in northern portion with gravity waves circled in blue.
Area in green appears to have significant helicity.
A mid-level vort appears to be developing in the red-circle region.

[TheProfessor]

12z EPS is more aggressive with a crossover within 120 hours, however after that point there's a lot less northern movement from cyclones compared to the 0z last night. Some of the members bend westward, some of them just seem to be nearly stationary in the BoC or perhaps get pushed back to the south. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on what happens after 120 hours right now though, the first thing we need to figure out is if there's going to be a crossover or not.

[Cpv17]

12z EPS is more aggressive with a crossover within 120 hours, however after that point there's a lot less northern movement from cyclones compared to the 0z last night. Some of the members bend westward, some of them just seem to be nearly stationary in the BoC or perhaps get pushed back to the south. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on what happens after 120 hours right now though, the first thing we need to figure out is if there's going to be a crossover or not.

If it gets strong enough chances are it’ll get sucked up north.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS run potentially spawns 3 brief TC's in the EPAC.

[Steve]

sorry wrong thread

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu May 28 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized shower activity located a few hundred miles south of
the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico is associated with
a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend while it drifts
northward.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
this weekend and early next week. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain. See products from your local weather office
for additional information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Aric Dunn]

Man the EPS are all over the place. there are reformations, stalls, ridging, troughing...

luckily we wont have to wait long for more consensus. once we have a center in 48 hours models will be much much better.

[GCANE]

Gyre coming together

[GCANE]

00Z GFS stalls it over very hot water

[GCANE]

06Z initializes it in 24 hrs. Consistent with just about all the other models.

[Kingarabian]

Twin systems on the 06z GFS with one in the BOC and one in the WCaribb.