2020 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Pretty good agreement, 10 days out.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS.

12z ECMWF has 2 weak storms. Overall, I'm not impressed.

[storminabox]

Unfortunately, this season looks likes it will be another pretty quiet one with not much to talk about (similar to last year).

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1272314407742132224

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS a step in the right direction. Shows a robust hurricane that develops on the 20th with a system starting to form a few days later to its right.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF still not very excited ofc.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF.

Not a great sign going forward that we're seeing small and weak storms modeled. Typically in active seasons the start of MJO pulses bring large systems.

[Kingarabian]

I think the important thing here is that models are consistent in spawning two systems. We've seen many times that when the Euro shows a weak system, it can very easily end up stronger. How strong they actually get depends on the EPAC's local state which sometimes the models are not in sync with.

[cycloneye]

Here we go. This may be a big one if it gets very favorable conditions.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather is expected to form south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec by Friday. Some slow development of this
system is possible this weekend while it moves westward, offshore
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[aspen]

Here we go. This may be a big one if it gets very favorable conditions.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather is expected to form south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec by Friday. Some slow development of this
system is possible this weekend while it moves westward, offshore
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

https://i.imgur.com/wSTbcut.png

Looks like it’ll be within the EPac’s “sweet spot” in terms of OHC and maximum potential intensity. However, we’ll have to see what atmospheric moisture levels and shear are like once it starts to form.

[Yellow Evan]

And yet the 18z GFS barely shows anything.

[TheStormExpert]

Considering we’re basically in a La Niña at this point I’m not surprised at all with the models barely showing anything of significance through the rest of the month. The Atlantic might be the best place to look in the coming weeks and months if you want to see long tracking storms and hurricanes.

[Chris90]

I'm gonna go out on a hopeful limb and say the EPAC will produce a hurricane before 00:00 UTC July 1st.
Yeah, there's a developing La Nina, but Nina years can still produce some quality. 2010 managed a June Cat 5 with Celia.
I think with all these waves starting to parade across the Atlantic towards the Pacific, something is bound to take in the EPAC in the next couple weeks.

[Yellow Evan]

I mean there’s a decent chance we get 3 systems and usually at least 1 hurricane from the upcoming MJO pulse because that’s at minimum that’s what early season MJO pulses bring. But I’d be surprised if it was more than that and in a much more favorable year you’d be seeing a much more aggressive guidance.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS more interested in a system further west at this point.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/U1RqBFv.png

0z GFS more interested in a system further west at this point.

Yeah typical GFS. Favors a storm for a while then backs off.

All these look to be fishes. So I really want some eye candy.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS drops the eastern system while the 12z ECMWF drops the western system.

[Kingarabian]

18z happy hour GFS definetely has a party in the EPAC. I counted 5 (maybe 6) systems by the end of its run.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec by Friday. Some slow development of this
system is possible this weekend while it moves westward, offshore
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly come to think about it the overall track does seem ripe for something strong but that raises the question as to why global models develop this so slowly. So I’m not ready to get optimistic and I can’t say I like how gradually this has been pushed back. But historically the globals, when storms actually develop, do so too slowly.