2020 EPAC Season

[GeneratorPower]

Don’t miss the major story here. All the models are going bonkers on development at nearly all forecast hours. Lid is coming off and it’s only May. Think about this.

[SFLcane]

All sorts of interesting possibilities.

[TheStormExpert]

Don’t miss the major story here. All the models are going bonkers on development at nearly all forecast hours. Lid is coming off and it’s only May. Think about this.

The lid is not coming off, this is very typical of late-May or early-June with these CAG developments. I mean yes there is a decent shot of us seeing Cristobal and Dolly in June.

[Yellow Evan]

Don’t miss the major story here. All the models are going bonkers on development at nearly all forecast hours. Lid is coming off and it’s only May. Think about this.

The lid is not coming off, this is very typical of late-May or early-June with these CAG developments. I mean yes there is a decent shot of us seeing Cristobal and Dolly in June.

Not to mention we happen to be in the active phase of a CCKW.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1265811233460142080

[WeatherEmperor]

0z GFS says "hold on i am not done playing yet"




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[WeatherEmperor]

0z Canadian has something to say as well




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[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS has this hitting Guatemala in four days and then basically absorbs it into the messsy CAG which eventually spawns a system in the Caribbean in two weeks.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF showing a less defined vortex at landfall in El Salvador by day 4.

[Steve]

GFS, whether it kicks out moves up to Florida or moves north and cuts west in some way in a given run, likes the Yucatán. No bets this early but it’s something maybe on the horizon.

[Shell Mound]

Regardless of development, don’t overlook the threat of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of Central America. Remember 1934 and Mitch:

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1265775772905566208

[ouragans]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America Heavy Rainfall: A Central American Gyre will
develop in the eastern North Pacific Ocean by the end of the
week. The gyre will move northward, toward Central America and
southern Mexico, during the upcoming weekend. The gyre will push
abundant moisture into parts of Central America by the end of
the week, during the entire weekend, and into the next week.
Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America,
especially from northern Costa Rica northward, into southern
Mexico. This will bring the potential for life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides for the areas that receive the greatest
amounts of rainfall. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts
that come from your local weather service for more information.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 28 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles south of the coasts of
Central America and southern Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it drifts
northward.

1. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
beginning late this week and continuing through the weekend. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain. See products from your
local weather office for additional information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Latto

[GCANE]

Very broad circulation now seen on MIMIC-TPW from surface to 700mb.
Shear is very low.

[GCANE]

GFS run to run is consistent in the trend to create two LL vorts.
The west one is now forecast to stay in the EPAC with no crossover.
The east one develops deep in the southern Carib and may eventually move into the GOM with a good chance of strong development.

[GCANE]

I know its a little early yet, but the convection off the east shore of Nicaragua has been intensifying all morning.
It's firing along a shear gradient.
Watching if this continues to fire today.
If so, could spin up a LL Vort.

[GCANE]

Bluefields reporting light SW winds

[GCANE]

Very unstable air over Nicaragua with rapidly forming cumulus.
Gravity waves apparent in the western portion of the country.
Convection continues to fire with strong lightning.

[BYG Jacob]

Very unstable air over Nicaragua with rapidly forming cumulus.
Gravity waves apparent in the western portion of the country.
Convection continues to fire with strong lightning.

Sounds like it’s bathing in high CAPE

[GCANE]

It appears the southern portion of the gyre has developed and is moving counterclockwise.
A small 700mb vort has popped up just SE of the convection.