2020 EPAC Season

[gatorcane]

The GFS continues to crank them out in the EPAC. #whatLaNina?

[gatorcane]

The GFS goes on to make that 980MB hurricane modeled above a major hurricane at 955MB in the long-range

[aspen]

Remember when the GFS was forecasting four named storms in the 990-970 mbar range, but only one developed and it was a struggling weak TS that lasted for only a day?

I’m not buying any GFS hurricanes after a week out.

[1900hurricane]

The GFS continues to crank them out in the EPAC. #whatLaNina?

https://i.postimg.cc/8zKJPC4X/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-39.png

Even 2010, one of the strongest La Ninas on record, was able to produce Celia, which peaked as a C5, and Darby, which peaked as a C3, simultaneously during a window of better conditions. It still ended up being one of the least active EPac seasons on record. And besides, at that tau, it is still very much a question if something even similar to that will verify.

[EquusStorm]

Yeah 2010 literally set the June ACE record for the EPac with insane levels of activity before completely dying off to record inactivity while the Atlantic racked up hyperactive ACE. Hard to use a burst of activity as a long term indicator

Oh, and Celia and Darby were both still active while a sub-950mb JUNE Gulf hurricane was developing as a tropical storm near the Yucatan, so that certainly didn't shut down the Atlantic lol

[Kingarabian]

Agreed. It's fine for the EPAC to have a burst of activity during a likely La Nina year. I think we've seen it happen during 2016 and 2017 as well. The abnormality in this burst of activity is the CPAC and how it seems to be favorable. However if this EPAC burst verifies and we see strong systems spawned, and we see more burst of activity going into September then there will be implications for the Atlantic side. But that's very very unlikely.

The next invest tag should for an area east of 120W.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro ensembles very active with multiple (at least three) potential systems. None look exceptionally strong but very active nonetheless.

[EquusStorm]

I certainly HOPE we get a bunch of EPac storms before September, because the Atlantic might try to develop every wave when we get to that point lol

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of
next week offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some
development is possible thereafter as the system moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Interesting the NHC is ignoring the area near 125-130W that there have been at least hints of.

[gatorcane]

The GFS day 10:

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS day 10:

https://i.postimg.cc/G3qWFgKT/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-40.png

[TheStormExpert]

Are these models especially the GFS on crack this year!? I’m not saying we won’t see anything else form but they must think we’re in a El Niño of some sort, not a quickly developing La Niña!

[Yellow Evan]

Are these models especially the GFS on crack this year!? I’m not saying we won’t see anything else form but they must think we’re in a El Niño of some sort, not a quickly developing La Niña!

During multi-season active phases, even developing La Ninas can have hyperactive stretches.

[cycloneye]

1. An area of low pressure will likely form over the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific basin later this week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual
development while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle of the week. Some
development is possible thereafter as the system moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

Are these models especially the GFS on crack this year!? I’m not saying we won’t see anything else form but they must think we’re in a El Niño of some sort, not a quickly developing La Niña!

During multi-season active phases, even developing La Ninas can have hyperactive stretches.

Yeah not suprise he, but the GFS keeps insisting on multiple majors close to Mexico which has yet to materialize this season. Maybe we’ll see a major or two but further west closer to 120°W.

[gatorcane]

The EPAC continues to look quite active over the next 10+ days based on the ECMWF and GFS overnight runs. I do believe the warmer than normal SSTs south of Mexico and north of the equator is helping this activity.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/nsg794/status/1292476612395532288

[gatorcane]

How the Euro ends and the GFS is not too dissimilar:

[Yellow Evan]

Also has 2 CPAC systems at that time range.