2020 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Invest 94E is up

[ElectricStorm]

It is interesting how this season has only produced 4 hurricanes over here so far, but 3 of them have become majors, and Elida was a Cat 2 so it wasn't all that far away from major status either. But everything else has been trash this year. Really a go big or go home kind of year...

[Yellow Evan]

95E in addition to a new invest is up BTW.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro and GFS hinting at 2 more areas after 96E.

[cycloneye]

Is over for this basin or one or two more form?

[Kingarabian]

Is over for this basin or one or two more form?

We could see a Kenneth 2011 type system during November. Maybe one more system in October and one last one in November. Would like to see the basin get to 100 ACE.

[galaxy401]

Is over for this basin or one or two more form?

We could see a Kenneth 2011 type system during November. Maybe one more system in October and one last one in November. Would like to see the basin get to 100 ACE.

To do that, the EPAC will need around 25 more units, so a long lived Cat 4 or several hurricanes. A powerful hurricane this late in the season during La Nina is very unlikely in my opinion since the basin tends to shut down early when its present. If any more storms form, they'll probably be weak TS. Of course, anything can happen but I think the odds are very low.

[Kingarabian]

Is over for this basin or one or two more form?

We could see a Kenneth 2011 type system during November. Maybe one more system in October and one last one in November. Would like to see the basin get to 100 ACE.

To do that, the EPAC will need around 25 more units, so a long lived Cat 4 or several hurricanes. A powerful hurricane this late in the season during La Nina is very unlikely in my opinion since the basin tends to shut down early when its present. If any more storms form, they'll probably be weak TS. Of course, anything can happen but I think the odds are very low.

Euro and GFS are coming into agreement that there will be some EPAC development in the next 5 days. They seem to agree on a "wide recurver" where a system travels to about 120W and then the future hurricane tracks back NE close to Mexico. Could do about 10 units of ACE.

[CyclonicFury]

Somewhat surprisingly, in an inactive La Niña year, this basin may not be done. The strong MJO event that has also led to a strong signal for Caribbean genesis is likely to trigger an EPAC TC first, perhaps the latest hurricane in this basin since Sandra in 2015. The ECMWF and GFS are in good agreement, and the GFS in particular makes this TC quite intense for a late season system in a La Niña year.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form south of the
coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next
week as the system moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

[Kingarabian]

Somewhat surprisingly, in an inactive La Niña year, this basin may not be done. The strong MJO event that has also led to a strong signal for Caribbean genesis is likely to trigger an EPAC TC first, perhaps the latest hurricane in this basin since Sandra in 2015. The ECMWF and GFS are in good agreement, and the GFS in particular makes this TC quite intense for a late season system in a La Niña year.

Ya compared to 2010 this has been a surprise that the EPAC activity is not too far from the averages.

[ClarCari]

It would be quite a fitting end to the 2020 EPAC Hurricane Season to have a failed high-chance invest. That must be like at least the 10th time this season.

I knew since Cristina this year was a suppressed failure. Comparing it to slightly weaker seasons doesn’t make this season any less pathetic. LMAO

Strong La Niña’s are quite something to behold in both basins.

[cycloneye]

Summary.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Pacific/status/1333807143473057793