JB chimes in.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1281959444373536768
2020 EPAC Season
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cycloneye
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
GFS develops another lower latitude, long-tracking system around 138 hours out.
That’s not gonna happen. Moving on!
That’s not gonna happen. Moving on!
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: 2020 EPAC Season
I’m surprised 98E is up to 50/80. Model support for this is pretty lackluster.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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MarioProtVI
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
I’m starting to fully think the EPac this year is going to be far from active due to the hostile background conditions and predicted La Niña. Given the massive bust with Cristina which was consistently forecasted to become a C2 at least, this further proves my point and I would not be surprised to see numbers similar to 2010 or 2011 but with the quality of say 2007.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
Can’t believe I’m saying this but JB is totally right. Activity could be near record lows, though I’m not ready to outright call for such.
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
The past 10 days the models have been insistent on developing 98E and now all completely drop it. Holy ****. The models have been absolute hot garbage so far.
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
StruThiO wrote:What even is this season lol.
The ultimate incarnation of tropical failure.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:The past 10 days the models have been insistent on developing 98E and now all completely drop it. Holy ****. The models have been absolute hot garbage so far.
The models, the basin or both?
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian wrote:The past 10 days the models have been insistent on developing 98E and now all completely drop it. Holy ****. The models have been absolute hot garbage so far.
The models, the basin or both?
The basin is what it is. Favorable or not favorable, the models should be able to understand and adapt. That is their job. They've been giving false positives for activity all season long.
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AnnularCane
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
This is looking a bit like 2010, when the Atlantic was very active and both sides of the Pacific seemed almost incapable of spawning tropical cyclones, at least after NE Pacific Celia.
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
It's kind of funny that the EPAC got its earliest start ever this year with One-E, but the basin has been struggling the entire season so far. Those percentages that JB posted are really low. 14% and 25%? At this point in the game I think it's become pretty clear what's going to happen. I'm guessing this season will be one of the least active for the EPAC on record, probably top 5 for lowest ACE generation would be my guess. Inversely, I'm getting even more bullish on the ATL getting wild in just a few weeks time.
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hurricanes1234
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
This year in the EPAC is the ultimate antithesis to five years ago in terms of prospects and observed activity, at least thus far.
Anyone thinks there's a chance we go the whole season without a major hurricane?
Anyone thinks there's a chance we go the whole season without a major hurricane?
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cycloneye
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
Does anyone has the stats of the lowest season on numbers and ACE on record for this basin?
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:Does anyone has the stats of the lowest season on numbers and ACE on record for this basin?
1977 is lowest. Only 22 ACE total, systems 8/4/0.
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CyclonicFury
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
Just a shot in the dark guess for the final totals:
14-6-2, 80 ACE. No storms reach Category 5. The EPAC is below average due to a weak La Niña and a weak -PDO signature is currently present. This EPAC season feels a lot like 1995-2010.
14-6-2, 80 ACE. No storms reach Category 5. The EPAC is below average due to a weak La Niña and a weak -PDO signature is currently present. This EPAC season feels a lot like 1995-2010.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
Ubuntwo wrote:cycloneye wrote:Does anyone has the stats of the lowest season on numbers and ACE on record for this basin?
1977 is lowest. Only 22 ACE total, systems 8/4/0.
Thank you. It would not surprise me if this season ends close to that.
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
Like many have mentioned conditions in the EPAC are not the best this year thus why systems have been struggling.
Windshear is anomalous from the east which is fairly normal during La Nina years and -PDOs.
As you can see compared to this same time last year UL winds environment is totally different.
Windshear is anomalous from the east which is fairly normal during La Nina years and -PDOs.
As you can see compared to this same time last year UL winds environment is totally different.
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season
NDG wrote:Like many have mentioned conditions in the EPAC are not the best this year thus why systems have been struggling.
Windshear is anomalous from the east which is fairly normal during La Nina years and -PDOs.
As you can see compared to this same time last year UL winds environment is totally different.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/u3IUGN0.gif[url]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/tYUojS3.gif[url]
The 2019 season was limited severely by strong easterly shear.
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