2020 EPAC Season

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aspen
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#221 Postby aspen » Fri May 29, 2020 7:06 am

GCANE wrote:00Z GFS stalls it over very hot water

https://i.imgur.com/1eJJlfO.png

It may be the warmest waters in the entire basin, but it looks like the circulation will be too expansive and too close to land for it to take full advantage of it. If the circulation tightens up and if it isn’t right on the Central American coast, then I could see the possibility of a stronger hurricane.
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#222 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 29, 2020 7:19 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri May 29 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although this
system remains poorly organized, environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development and a tropical depression
could form this weekend. This disturbance is expected to move
slowly northward toward Central America and southern Mexico during
the next couple of days.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
this weekend and early next week. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain. See products from your local weather office
for additional information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#223 Postby NDG » Fri May 29, 2020 7:24 am

0z Euro & EPS is trending towards less ridging across the gulf coast so is sending a majority of the energy north.
The Euro has been over doing ridging across the gulf coast in its 7-10 day range during the past few days.

Image
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#224 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri May 29, 2020 8:18 am

6z euro is suggesting a much quicker crossover/reformation. by day three it is already halfway to the NW carrib/BOC.
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#225 Postby GCANE » Fri May 29, 2020 9:21 am

850mb vort tightening up.
I think I am in love.

Image
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#226 Postby Astromanía » Fri May 29, 2020 10:53 am

Terrible flooding for Chiapas and Oaxaca, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras as well, this could be one of the deadliest systems on EPAC and now with this stupid pandemic things will be just worst
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#227 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 29, 2020 11:35 am

12z GFS doesn't develop this for another five days when this moved west back offshore.
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#228 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 29, 2020 11:36 am

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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#229 Postby TheProfessor » Fri May 29, 2020 11:41 am

The 12z GFS sets up a monster ridge over the southeast and northern GOM, nothing is making it into the Gulf in this scenario except maybe the extreme southern BoC.
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#230 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri May 29, 2020 11:47 am

Good old GFS... flip flopping like a flag in the wind.. lol
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#231 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 29, 2020 11:48 am

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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#232 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:33 pm

Probably need to wait on a monsoonal setup to see some EPAC action. Right now the Atlantic owns all the rising air and most disturbances will develop there. We may get lucky and get some hand-me-downs from the Atlantic but I think they will be very few compared to prior years.
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#233 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:34 am

00z Euro and GFS showing a signs of TC formation off of Mexico starting in 10 days:
Image

Image

It's possible that these do not make it to the EPAC and instead develop in the far W-Caribb.
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#234 Postby StruThiO » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:01 am

00z euro

Image

Image
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#235 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:46 pm

12z Euro still has it:
Image
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#236 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:50 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula this weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system by early next week while it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#237 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:00 pm

12z ECMWF shows something near 120W and 12z shows a hint. I kinda don't buy it.
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#238 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:17 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:12z ECMWF shows something near 120W and 12z shows a hint. I kinda don't buy it.

It's there on both the GFS and Euro but too far west and too early.
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#239 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:53 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:12z ECMWF shows something near 120W and 12z shows a hint. I kinda don't buy it.

It's there on both the GFS and Euro but too far west and too early.


With a CCKW presumably in the WPAC right now given that basin was active, this seems the classic case, just because they usually propagate too fast, of a phantom storm. It wouldn't shock me if the EPAC lights up somewhat soon but this isn't it.
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#240 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:23 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south or south-
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur this weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system early next week while it moves
west-northwestward away from Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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