2020 Global ACE: NATL - 179.8 - EPAC - 76.5 - WPAC - 148.5 - NIO - 19.2

[cycloneye]

Delta finished with 15.7 units and rising the NATL total to 123.1 units. Noting that there may be some changing in the off season with some of the storms and two of them are if Paulette will be upgraded to Major cane and if Gamma will be upgraded to a Hurricane.

[aspen]

Delta finished with 15.7 units and rising the NATL total to 123.1 units. Noting that there may be some changing in the off season with some of the storms and two of them are if Paulette will be upgraded to Major cane and if Gamma will be upgraded to a Hurricane.

Is there enough evidence to suggest that Paulette was a major prior to its EWRC and ingestion of wildfire smoke? It did look pretty good on satellite imagery, but I didn’t check ADT estimates during its peak.

[kevin]

Delta finished with 15.7 units and rising the NATL total to 123.1 units. Noting that there may be some changing in the off season with some of the storms and two of them are if Paulette will be upgraded to Major cane and if Gamma will be upgraded to a Hurricane.

Is there enough evidence to suggest that Paulette was a major prior to its EWRC and ingestion of wildfire smoke? It did look pretty good on satellite imagery, but I didn’t check ADT estimates during its peak.

Paulette's ADT estimate peaked with a final T-number of 4.5, corresponding to 956.4 mbar and 97.2 kts.
956.4 97.2 4.5 4.7 4.7

[1900hurricane]

The WPac is on the doorstep of catching up and passing the NAtl in TIKE again.

[cycloneye]

The WPac is on the doorstep of catching up and passing the NAtl in TIKE again.

What is TIKE?

[1900hurricane]

The WPac is on the doorstep of catching up and passing the NAtl in TIKE again.

What is TIKE?

Track Integrated Kinetic Energy.

[cycloneye]

Thank you. There is a notable difference in WPAC of 5 units between CSU and your numbers.

[1900hurricane]

Thank you. There is a notable difference in WPAC of 5 units between CSU and your numbers.

CSU occasionally has small errors that result in less ACE than actual for JTWC basins. I talked a little about it in the 2018 thread here.

[aspen]

Here are some post-season changes that I think are possible and could change 2020’s ACE total.

+ACE:
—Genesis time of Dolly, Edouard, Gonzalo, Kyle, Nana, Vicky, and Alpha moved to be a little earlier
—Sally’s peak raised to 95 kt (maybe 100 kt)
—Paulette’s peak raised to 95 kt (maybe 100 kt)
—Dolly’s peak raised to 50-60 kt
—Gonzalo’s peak raised to 60-65 kt
—Gamma’s peak raised to 65-70 kt
—Alpha’s peak raised to 50-55 kt
—Laura’s intensity raised to 135 kt (blend of FL and SFMR) and 936 mbar (pressure reading by Mark Sudduth at landfall)
—Isaias’ minimum pressure lowered to 986 mbar based on Mark’s measurement at its NC landfall

-ACE:
—Nana’s peak lowered to 60 kt
—Delta’s peak lowered to 115-120 kt
—Delta’s intensity in the final 12 hrs before landfall in the Yucatán is lowered
—Fay’s peak lowered to 45 kt
—Teddy’s second peak is lowered

Is there anything else I might’ve missed?

[aspen]

If the Caribbean system stalls down there as a powerful major for several days like in today’s bonkers 12z GFS run, it could easily generate 25-40 ACE, bumping 2020’s total up to 145-160. A wandering mid-latitude system could also add on another 5 or so units.

[ElectricStorm]

Imagine if the WPAC doesn't make it to 100 ACE. It will probably get there but has that ever happened before? 2010 had Megi so I would think 2010 would have over 100

[Ed_2001]

Imagine if the WPAC doesn't make it to 100 ACE. It will probably get there but has that ever happened before? 2010 had Megi so I would think 2010 would have over 100

Least active WPAC season in terms of ACE was 1999 with only 109.9 units. 2010 had slightly higher ACE (121.4) but of course it had the fewest named storms in record.

[ElectricStorm]

Imagine if the WPAC doesn't make it to 100 ACE. It will probably get there but has that ever happened before? 2010 had Megi so I would think 2010 would have over 100

Least active WPAC season in terms of ACE was 1999 with only 109.9 units. 2010 had slightly higher ACE (121.4) but of course it had the fewest named storms in record.

Yeah I would think 2020 would get there...

[MarioProtVI]

Here are some post-season changes that I think are possible and could change 2020’s ACE total.

+ACE:
—Genesis time of Dolly, Edouard, Gonzalo, Kyle, Nana, Vicky, and Alpha moved to be a little earlier
—Sally’s peak raised to 95 kt (maybe 100 kt)
—Paulette’s peak raised to 95 kt (maybe 100 kt)
—Dolly’s peak raised to 50-60 kt
—Gonzalo’s peak raised to 60-65 kt
—Gamma’s peak raised to 65-70 kt
—Alpha’s peak raised to 50-55 kt
—Laura’s intensity raised to 135 kt (blend of FL and SFMR) and 936 mbar (pressure reading by Mark Sudduth at landfall)
—Isaias’ minimum pressure lowered to 986 mbar based on Mark’s measurement at its NC landfall

-ACE:
—Nana’s peak lowered to 60 kt
—Delta’s peak lowered to 115-120 kt
—Delta’s intensity in the final 12 hrs before landfall in the Yucatán is lowered
—Fay’s peak lowered to 45 kt
—Teddy’s second peak is lowered

Is there anything else I might’ve missed?

I don’t really see them downgrading Nana as they have never downgraded by a category in modern times. They probably will make some reason to support 65 kt, probably even with data that we can’t access.

[aspen]

Epsilon and Zeta are likely to become substantial ACE generators. This year’s Epsilon looks like it’ll be comparable to its 2005 version: a wandering mid-latitude system, perhaps making it to hurricane status. Such a system could generate 5-10 ACE. Future Zeta in the Caribbean could become another WCar major and generate 10-40 ACE, depending on its peak in the Caribbean, how long it has before Cuba landfall, and how strong it’ll be after moving past the GAs. Something like Irene ‘99 would be the low end, and something like Wilma would be the high end. Once the two systems are finished up, we could be looking at anywhere from 135 ACE (similar to 2018 and 2019) to 170 ACE (slightly higher than 2010) for 2020’s total.

[aspen]

Epsilon and Zeta are likely to become substantial ACE generators. This year’s Epsilon looks like it’ll be comparable to its 2005 version: a wandering mid-latitude system, perhaps making it to hurricane status. Such a system could generate 5-10 ACE. Future Zeta in the Caribbean could become another WCar major and generate 10-40 ACE, depending on its peak in the Caribbean, how long it has before Cuba landfall, and how strong it’ll be after moving past the GAs. Something like Irene ‘99 would be the low end, and something like Wilma would be the high end. Once the two systems are finished up, we could be looking at anywhere from 135 ACE (similar to 2018 and 2019) to 170 ACE (slightly higher than 2010) for 2020’s total.

Well, I was very close with Epsilon. It’s an even weirder version of its 2005 version and will get to around 10 ACE. Zeta....not so much. Maybe we’ll get another 5-15 ACE Caribbean hurricane if the medium to long range GFS and ensemble hints are right.

[euro6208]

The WPAC still within reach and GFS has 2 possible majors. Can it surprise us during a nina year?

[1900hurricane]

NAtl creeping closer to hyperactivity, WPac will cross 100 ACE at 00Z.

[cycloneye]

If what is moduled pans out, then it will be easy for NATL to reach 160 units.

[euro6208]

I wonder what the total will be after Molave and future Goni/Atsani will be after all is said and done.