2020 Global ACE: NATL - 179.8 - EPAC - 76.5 - WPAC - 148.5 - NIO - 19.2

[Blinhart]

I think in the post season analysis that there will be a lot of ACE added to this season. Especially if Sub-Tropical systems are included. There are tons of systems this year that were classified as Post-Tropical that should of been classified as Sub-Tropical, and I think in post season analysis this will be corrected.

[ElectricStorm]

160 ACE is the threshold for a season to be hyperactive correct?

[gfsperpendicular]

I think in the post season analysis that there will be a lot of ACE added to this season. Especially if Sub-Tropical systems are included. There are tons of systems this year that were classified as Post-Tropical that should of been classified as Sub-Tropical, and I think in post season analysis this will be corrected.

To expand, I expect:
Dolly's peak intensity to be raised
Edouard's upgrade to TS to be moved up
Gonzalo's peak intensity to be raised
Nana's formation time to be moved up
Paulette's reformation time to be moved up (although maybe the second dissipation time will be moved up as well)
Sally's peak intensity to be raised
Alpha's formation time to be moved up

[Ubuntwo]

I think in the post season analysis that there will be a lot of ACE added to this season. Especially if Sub-Tropical systems are included. There are tons of systems this year that were classified as Post-Tropical that should of been classified as Sub-Tropical, and I think in post season analysis this will be corrected.

To expand, I expect:
Dolly's peak intensity to be raised
Edouard's upgrade to TS to be moved up
Gonzalo's peak intensity to be raised
Nana's formation time to be moved up
Paulette's reformation time to be moved up (although maybe the second dissipation time will be moved up as well)
Sally's peak intensity to be raised
Alpha's formation time to be moved up

There are also a few opportunities for ACE reduction in post:
Quicker intensity dropoff with Teddy (based on drops and abnormally low SFMR indicating poor mixing, common in transitioning systems)
Reduction in Sally's intensity between the two peaks (at times recon struggled to even support 65kt)
Reduction in Isaias' intensity after passing the Bahamas and nearing FL.
These were at a higher intensity so could bring down ACE a good few points and balance that gain out.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the EPAC may get a nice ACE boost in the next 10 days but will it be able to catch up to the Atlantic?

[MarioProtVI]

Looks like the EPAC may get a nice ACE boost in the next 10 days but will it be able to catch up to the Atlantic?

Given how atrocious it’s been there this year I highly doubt we see anything strong. Any time we’ve said this it just seemed to spew out weak storms.

[storminabox]

This year has been ABSOLUTELY PATHETIC ACE wise in the NHEM!

[aspen]

Models are suggesting up to three moderately significant systems in the next 10-14 days: on in the WCAr, one in the central Caribbean, and one in the MDR. If each becomes at least a strong TS and produces at least 5-10 ACE, 2020’s total will be shot up to 120-135 ACE. I’m a little more conservative with my future ACE predictions because Teddy produced “only” 27 ACE instead of 35-40 as I initially expected, but if one of those Caribbean systems becomes a powerful major, it could reach or surpass Teddy’s total.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This year has been ABSOLUTELY PATHETIC ACE wise in the NHEM!

That's La Nina for you.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the NATL will get a decent ACE boost from Delta and the same for WPAC with CHAM-HOM that is forecast to be a fairly strong Typhoon. About the averages, the NATL will go further away from the average (85.7) and continue well above average and WPAC even with the CHAM-HOM boost will be well below average (200)

[Blinhart]

So how much has Delta generated so far, and how much more could he generate?

[Extratropical94]

So how much has Delta generated so far, and how much more could he generate?

Assuming Delta's intensity will be 120kts at the 18Z BT update, and it behaves like currently forecast by the NHC, then the ACE totals might be looking like this:

TIME KT ACE TOTAL
-30H 40 0.1600 0.1600
-24H 55 0.3025 0.4625
-18H 65 0.4225 0.8850
-12H 80 0.6400 1.5250
-6H 95 0.9025 2.4275
0H 120 1.4400 3.8675
--------------------------
6H 120 1.4400 5.3075
12H 120 1.4400 6.7475
18H 120 1.4400 8.1875
24H 110 1.2100 9.3975
30H 105 1.1025 10.5000
36H 105 1.1025 11.6025
42H 110 1.2100 12.8125
48H 110 1.2100 14.0225
54H 115 1.3225 15.3450
60H 110 1.2100 16.5550
66H 110 1.2100 17.7650
72H 100 1.0000 18.7650
78H 90 0.8100 19.5750
84H 80 0.6400 20.2150
90H 70 0.4900 20.7050
96H 55 0.3025 21.0075
102H 40 0.1600 21.1675

[Blinhart]

So how much has Delta generated so far, and how much more could he generate?

Assuming Delta's intensity will be 120kts at the 18Z BT update, and it behaves like currently forecast by the NHC, then the ACE totals might be looking like this:

TIME KT ACE TOTAL
-30H 40 0.1600 0.1600
-24H 55 0.3025 0.4625
-18H 65 0.4225 0.8850
-12H 80 0.6400 1.5250
-6H 95 0.9025 2.4275
0H 120 1.4400 3.8675
--------------------------
6H 120 1.4400 5.3075
12H 120 1.4400 6.7475
18H 120 1.4400 8.1875
24H 110 1.2100 9.3975
30H 105 1.1025 10.5000
36H 105 1.1025 11.6025
42H 110 1.2100 12.8125
48H 110 1.2100 14.0225
54H 115 1.3225 15.3450
60H 110 1.2100 16.5550
66H 110 1.2100 17.7650
72H 100 1.0000 18.7650
78H 90 0.8100 19.5750
84H 80 0.6400 20.2150
90H 70 0.4900 20.7050
96H 55 0.3025 21.0075
102H 40 0.1600 21.1675

Thank you

[Steve]

Somebody fix the tread title. Shows 109.9 NATL

[us89]

Per the Colorado State website, the North Atlantic’s ACE for 2020 has finally passed the 111 unit threshold for an above-normal season.

[ElectricStorm]

Per the Colorado State website, the North Atlantic’s ACE for 2020 has finally passed the 111 unit threshold for an above-normal season.

Officially 5 above average seasons in a row. That is pretty impressive. One more and the entire name list rotation would be used for an above average year in consecutive order. Pretty crazy

[TheStormExpert]

Per the Colorado State website, the North Atlantic’s ACE for 2020 has finally passed the 111 unit threshold for an above-normal season.

Officially 5 above average seasons in a row. That is pretty impressive. One more and the entire name list rotation would be used for an above average year in consecutive order. Pretty crazy

Hard to believe we’re only at 111 ACE units after seeing 25/9/3. Then again this seasons been about quantity with some quality.

[ElectricStorm]

Per the Colorado State website, the North Atlantic’s ACE for 2020 has finally passed the 111 unit threshold for an above-normal season.

Officially 5 above average seasons in a row. That is pretty impressive. One more and the entire name list rotation would be used for an above average year in consecutive order. Pretty crazy

Hard to believe we’re only at 111 ACE units after seeing 25/9/3. Then again this seasons been about quantity with some quality.

I know this is going to sound weird. But in my view this season has had more quality than storms that would just be quantity. Many of the tropical storms this year have been quality in my view because they probably would not form in a "normal" season. Bertha went from nothing to something hours before landfall. Cristobal was rapidly organizing before it's first landfall. Gonzalo formed and became a strong TS in the MDR in July. Josephine was weak but it likely wouldn't form in other seasons. Alpha made landfall as a STS in Portugal of all places. And Gamma very nearly (probably did) made hurricane status before landfall. So yes numbers-wise it certainly does appear to be quantity over quality. But in a "normal" year many of these TS's would likely not develop, which would make the ratio far less screwed. I hope that made sense

[TheStormExpert]

Officially 5 above average seasons in a row. That is pretty impressive. One more and the entire name list rotation would be used for an above average year in consecutive order. Pretty crazy

Hard to believe we’re only at 111 ACE units after seeing 25/9/3. Then again this seasons been about quantity with some quality.

I know this is going to sound weird. But in my view this season has had more quality than storms that would just be quantity. Many of the tropical storms this year have been quality in my view because they probably would not form in a "normal" season. Bertha went from nothing to something hours before landfall. Cristobal was rapidly organizing before it's first landfall. Gonzalo formed and became a strong TS in the MDR in July. Josephine was weak but it likely wouldn't form in other seasons. Alpha made landfall as a STS in Portugal of all places. And Gamma very nearly (probably did) made hurricane status before landfall. So yes numbers-wise it certainly does appear to be quantity over quality. But in a "normal" year many of these TS's would likely not develop, which would make the ratio far less screwed. I hope that made sense

Well it has definitely stuck out that storms have waited to just prior to landfall to rapidly organize and strengthen. Take Hanna, Isaias, Sally, and Gamma as just the short few for example.

But that is why ACE has failed to accumulate as besides Paulette which never obtained major status, and Teddy there haven’t been any other long tracking hurricanes. Cape Verde season failed to get going until several days into September while only lasting a few weeks.

This season has definitely been an in-close, homegrown, west-based season.

[ElectricStorm]

Hard to believe we’re only at 111 ACE units after seeing 25/9/3. Then again this seasons been about quantity with some quality.

I know this is going to sound weird. But in my view this season has had more quality than storms that would just be quantity. Many of the tropical storms this year have been quality in my view because they probably would not form in a "normal" season. Bertha went from nothing to something hours before landfall. Cristobal was rapidly organizing before it's first landfall. Gonzalo formed and became a strong TS in the MDR in July. Josephine was weak but it likely wouldn't form in other seasons. Alpha made landfall as a STS in Portugal of all places. And Gamma very nearly (probably did) made hurricane status before landfall. So yes numbers-wise it certainly does appear to be quantity over quality. But in a "normal" year many of these TS's would likely not develop, which would make the ratio far less screwed. I hope that made sense

Well it has definitely stuck out that storms have waited to just prior to landfall to rapidly organize and strengthen. Take Hanna, Isaias, Sally, and Gamma as just the short few for example.

But that is why ACE has failed to accumulate as besides Paulette which never obtained major status, and Teddy there haven’t been any other long tracking hurricanes. Cape Verde season failed to get going until several days into September while only lasting a few weeks.

This season has definitely been an in-close, homegrown, west-based season.

Yeah and those are the seasons that are extremely dangerous. As we are about to see the record 10 CONUS landfall in a single season from Delta