2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

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2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:01 am

Here is our annual thread for the indicators topic this time the 2020 North Atlantic one.This years thread has a new section for sat images that update every 15 minutes from different areas of the basin in Geocolor,Visible and Infared so enjoy looking at those. Is important to have this thread early to see how things are evolving in the important factor of the steering as we will see based on that which areas in the basin may have visits of tropical systems. Also,it will be important to see how the pressures will be,how the shear is doing,how are the MSLP forecasts going to be and how the waters are in terms of being more warm or not. And also we have to follow how things are evolving in the Saharan air Layer and in the Vertical Instability factor. If anyone wants to comment about ENSO,you can do it here.Post away your take folks.

Note=This thread is not to post forecast numbers but to discuss about how things are going in the factors this thread is enlisting. There will be our annual poll for that starting on April 1rst. As a matter of fact,this thread will help you a bit to decide about the numbers game with all the information that will be posted.

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https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /nao.shtml


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https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.php

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Satelite Animations here





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http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg



ECMWF MSLP Updates
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:01 pm

Looking a little chilly in the MDR. We'll have to see if this persists into the season, if it continues it could finally put a stop to the train of active seasons

Image
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:50 pm

For being early January,there is plenty of dust in the Tropical Atlantic and that is not normal for this time.Let's see how this does in the comming months.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:For being early January,there is plenty of dust in the Tropical Atlantic and that is not normal for this time.Let's see how this does in the comming months.

Isn’t more dust typical though with a +NAO which has been mostly positive for months now.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#5 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:12 pm

The December seasonal Euro for December 2019 showed a somewhat dry MDR + Caribbean for June 2020 (aka higher than average MSLP). Euro is doing this once again -- as it struggles when Nino regions are warmer than average and the long term subseasonal forcing pattern favors WWB's over the dateline during late winter and spring.
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Has a wetter EPAC MDR but dry again off the Mexican and CA coast.
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January seasonal Euro will be out soon so we'll see if there's any changes.

PC: Ryan Maue @ Weathermodels.com
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#6 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:20 pm

I hope the Caribbean isn't excessively dry this June.

Lots of places have been grappling with drought because of below-average rainfall in 2019 across the region.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#7 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jan 05, 2020 3:20 pm

So latest Euro seasonal for January 2020 shows a lot of rainfall off the east coast and over Florida during July. Dry in the GOM/Caribbean/MDR
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This is for informational purposes only.

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:54 pm

Kingarabian wrote:So latest Euro seasonal for January 2020 shows a lot of rainfall off the east coast and over Florida during July. Dry in the GOM/Caribbean/MDR
https://i.imgur.com/Akw2laH.png

This is for informational purposes only.

PC: Ryan Maue @ Weathermodels.com


Let's see when the August and September ones come out to see how things will stand according to this model. I know that in past years those forecasts have not been stellar.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#9 Postby Hammy » Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:So latest Euro seasonal for January 2020 shows a lot of rainfall off the east coast and over Florida during July. Dry in the GOM/Caribbean/MDR
https://i.imgur.com/Akw2laH.png

This is for informational purposes only.

PC: Ryan Maue @ Weathermodels.com


Let's see when the August and September ones come out to see how things will stand according to this model. I know that in past years those forecasts have not been stellar.


Wasn't there something last year that was talking about the models always having a dry bias to the MDR/W Africa?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#10 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:45 pm

The vast majority of the action last two seasons was in the Subtropics. It may take another successfully decent El Niño episode to recharge the Atlantic’s MDR if that makes any sense. Didn’t we have a similar issue in the early 2010’s after coming off the 2009/2010 El Niño episode?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:04 pm

NotSparta wrote:Looking a little chilly in the MDR. We'll have to see if this persists into the season, if it continues it could finally put a stop to the train of active seasons

https://i.imgur.com/gd0g77R.png


Now there is a big swing to the warm side but is very early so let's see how things keep evolving in the comming weeks and months.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:17 am

I’m thinking El Niño becomes a possibility for the hurricane season, you can only have so many failed attempts before it takes hold

I’m also thinking due to El Niño that the SSTA’s will be higher in the subtropical Atlantic as opposed to the MDR meaning suppressed activity in the MDR and shear in the Caribbean
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#13 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:00 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:I’m thinking El Niño becomes a possibility for the hurricane season, you can only have so many failed attempts before it takes hold

I’m also thinking due to El Niño that the SSTA’s will be higher in the subtropical Atlantic as opposed to the MDR meaning suppressed activity in the MDR and shear in the Caribbean

I’m thinking El Niño or Warm-Neutral. The way seasonal outlooks are looking again it’ll likely be yet another year of the Subtropics, but who knows. All it took was Dorian to make last season memorable for folks in the Northwestern Bahamas and parts of the SE U.S.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#14 Postby MarioProtVI » Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:06 pm

Given the factors already and the unusual amount of dust already I think this may be an indicator that this year will be the year with El Niño - meaning below average season for once. Having too many active seasons in a row has tended to “dry” out the MDR and Atlantic and last year was sort of an indicator of this (quality was a bit worse then compared to 2017 and 2018 - lot of weak storms especially towards the end) and to an extent 2011-12. Otherwise you could cause the Atlantic to probably 2013 itself again or just get sick. We’ll see where we are by August or September though.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#15 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:43 pm

Didn't we just have an El Nino last year?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#16 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:34 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Didn't we just have an El Nino last year?

Almost but no.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#17 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:37 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Didn't we just have an El Nino last year?

Almost but no.

2018-19 was actually a weak El Niño that formed after the peak of the 2018 season but dissipated soon enough to not significantly suppress the 2019 season. The ONI met the criteria.

After briefly dipping into cool neutral territory, Niño 3.4 has flirted with Niño levels the past several weeks, but CPC is hesitant to call this an actual El Niño event.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#18 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:10 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Didn't we just have an El Nino last year?

Almost but no.

2018-19 was actually a weak El Niño that formed after the peak of the 2018 season but dissipated soon enough to not significantly suppress the 2019 season. The ONI met the criteria.


Exactly how much would a weak Nino suppress the season anyway? Would it really be that significant?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#19 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:00 pm

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#20 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:38 pm

:uarrow: I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has some nasty surprises up its sleeve! The theme since 2016 has been more dangerous and destructive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons and with the lack of any kind of winter in these parts you can bet on potential record warmth in the Gulf or off the SE U.S. coastline come summertime. Hope I’m wrong.
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