2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#681 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:58 am

If they merge we could have a traditional +AMO. If the MDR is cooler than the subtropics it can cause stability and sinking over the MDR. Months to go before we look east so we shall see.

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#682 Postby JetFuel_SE » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:52 pm

SFLcane wrote:If they merge we could have a traditional +AMO. If the MDR is cooler than the subtropics it can cause stability and sinking over the MDR. Months to go before we look east so we shall see.

https://i.imgur.com/sC7XE3G.jpg


What analysis method is that?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#683 Postby Hammy » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:00 pm

At least early on the conditions this season are much more favorable than last season, when we had a storm last 12 hours in May and then the early June system that failed to really consolidate into anything before being absorbed by a trough.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#684 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:41 pm

Latest 46 day EPS shows a generally favorable atmospheric setup for the EPAC and Atlantic. Graphic is posted in the ENSO if anyone wants to look at it.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#685 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:55 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Latest 46 day EPS shows a generally favorable atmospheric setup for the EPAC and Atlantic. Graphic is posted in the ENSO if anyone wants to look at it.


Mean smooths out intraseasonal variation. The control shows a dead period mid to late June. Might be another window early-mid July.

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#686 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:11 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Latest 46 day EPS shows a generally favorable atmospheric setup for the EPAC and Atlantic. Graphic is posted in the ENSO if anyone wants to look at it.


Mean smooths out intraseasonal variation. The control shows a dead period mid to late June. Might be another window early-mid July.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/tBPlvYW.jpg[url]

The 46 day mean shows intraseasonal variation if they're significant. The control technically counts as a singular solution out of the 50+1 possibilities. It can give false depictions compared to the mean. It's better to use the 15 day EPS for intraseasonal variation.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#687 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:38 pm

Massive convection over Africa: :eek:

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#688 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:34 pm

The extreme eastern portion looks like it might have some kind of parallax error but that western portion is crazy.
:eek:

I wonder, could this be the start of what the models have been predicting regarding the hyperactive West African monsoon? Or is it just due to the MJO?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#689 Postby TheAustinMan » Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:38 am

As we enter the season, here's the global SST overview for posterity. A general positive AMO state for the Atlantic (AMO index for May should be available soon), transitioning ENSO regions headed for cool neutral/La Nina, a firery subtropical CPAC/WPAC, and a warm NIO throughout (with perhaps some of Amphan's influence still present). It will certainly be intriguing to see how this global picture evolves as we roll through the months.

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#690 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:57 pm

I know early season activity often isn't a precursor for the rest of the season but the fact that we already have 3 named storms that all formed from tropical origins does feel like a omen. Plus the fact we could have a hurricane hitting the Gulf coast along with a developing La Nina makes things even more uneasy. This is going to be a long season (as if this 2020 already isn't long enough).
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#691 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:19 pm

Activity over Africa continues to impress. Look how far north the convection is:

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#692 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:24 pm

This season certainly has hit the ground running, hasn't it? I remember having a general feeling of unease in 2005 when a second named storm formed in June, like something big was going to happen, and now two named storms in June doesn't seem to hold a candle to what we've had this year so far.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#693 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:37 pm

AnnularCane wrote:This season certainly has hit the ground running, hasn't it? I remember having a general feeling of unease in 2005 when a second named storm formed in June, like something big was going to happen, and now two named storms in June doesn't seem to hold a candle to what we've had this year so far.

We’ve only had one named storm so far this month.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#694 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:47 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:This season certainly has hit the ground running, hasn't it? I remember having a general feeling of unease in 2005 when a second named storm formed in June, like something big was going to happen, and now two named storms in June doesn't seem to hold a candle to what we've had this year so far.

We’ve only had one named storm so far this month.

But we had two named storms in May, which 2005 did not.

Still, I don't think we will see this pace continue all season. There will almost certainly be some sort of lull once the MJO moves out of its favorable phase. June is heavily MJO dependent, and usually it is too early for anything to form in the MDR. I wouldn't be shocked if Cristobal is the only storm this month. But that doesn't mean much for the peak of the season.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#695 Postby StruThiO » Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:40 am

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#696 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:16 am




This!

Looks pretty good for warming the next couple weeks. We may not get much of a break once the REAL season gets going.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#697 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:25 am

SFLcane wrote:



This!

Looks pretty good for warming the next couple weeks. We may not get much of a break once the REAL season gets going.

We may get a lull after Cristobal for a bit but once the CV season starts when the lid comes off.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#698 Postby StruThiO » Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:35 am

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#699 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:55 am



Main development region Definitely warming now. We could very well see a hyperactive season if that warming keeps up. Buckle up folks
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#700 Postby StruThiO » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:00 pm

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