2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

The CFS's solution is more realistic to me. When looking at forecasts, we also have to look at present conditions. Clue's on what's actually occurring. The CFS has done a remarkable job in correctly predicting the ocean transitioning towards a possible La Nina. Much better than the Euro. An atmospheric response is lagging, but there's a large and strong trade burst in the far western Pacific that will likely warm the waters near the IPWP/MC which will likely promote increased convection there and trigger the missing La Nina standing wave. It's a process. Some active years I believe in 1995 and 2017, also had little rising motion near the MC during June, but switched in July.

Pacific is only half the battle. If the Atlantic doesn't warm up we're not gonna have a super active year.

[Ubuntwo]

The CFS's solution is more realistic to me. When looking at forecasts, we also have to look at present conditions. Clue's on what's actually occurring. The CFS has done a remarkable job in correctly predicting the ocean transitioning towards a possible La Nina. Much better than the Euro. An atmospheric response is lagging, but there's a large and strong trade burst in the far western Pacific that will likely warm the waters near the IPWP/MC which will likely promote increased convection there and trigger the missing La Nina standing wave. It's a process. Some active years I believe in 1995 and 2017, also had little rising motion near the MC during June, but switched in July.

Pacific is only half the battle. If the Atlantic doesn't warm up we're not gonna have a super active year.

There’s much more to it. How many years have had favorable SSTs and below average activity? Even in 2005 the MDR wasn’t much more above average than now (gulf and Caribbean were higher). Even with below average seas, the western basin will be warm enough to support intense systems. But with unfavorable velocities, a stable atmosphere, or dry air? Not happening. Think of all the waves shut out of formation by a huge SAL outbreak, or massive lulls in activity due to widespread subsidence. IMO the importance of sea surface temperatures is overstated, and other factors bear more watching

[TheStormExpert]

The CFS's solution is more realistic to me. When looking at forecasts, we also have to look at present conditions. Clue's on what's actually occurring. The CFS has done a remarkable job in correctly predicting the ocean transitioning towards a possible La Nina. Much better than the Euro. An atmospheric response is lagging, but there's a large and strong trade burst in the far western Pacific that will likely warm the waters near the IPWP/MC which will likely promote increased convection there and trigger the missing La Nina standing wave. It's a process. Some active years I believe in 1995 and 2017, also had little rising motion near the MC during June, but switched in July.

Pacific is only half the battle. If the Atlantic doesn't warm up we're not gonna have a super active year.

This is why I was warning not to get to hyped over the sudden warmup of the Tropical Atlantic in late-March and early-April, see how quickly things can change?

[cycloneye]

The CFS's solution is more realistic to me. When looking at forecasts, we also have to look at present conditions. Clue's on what's actually occurring. The CFS has done a remarkable job in correctly predicting the ocean transitioning towards a possible La Nina. Much better than the Euro. An atmospheric response is lagging, but there's a large and strong trade burst in the far western Pacific that will likely warm the waters near the IPWP/MC which will likely promote increased convection there and trigger the missing La Nina standing wave. It's a process. Some active years I believe in 1995 and 2017, also had little rising motion near the MC during June, but switched in July.

Pacific is only half the battle. If the Atlantic doesn't warm up we're not gonna have a super active year.

This is why I was warning not to get to hyped over the sudden warmup of the Tropical Atlantic in late-March and early-April, see how quickly things can change?

By the same token,things can change quickly to warmer MDR in the comming 2-3 months.

[toad strangler]

I’m completely dumbfounded at how married many are to even the slightest neg anomalies in the MDR as a huge inhibitor. The MDR is highly overrated I’ve come to learn.

[TheStormExpert]

Pacific is only half the battle. If the Atlantic doesn't warm up we're not gonna have a super active year.

This is why I was warning not to get to hyped over the sudden warmup of the Tropical Atlantic in late-March and early-April, see how quickly things can change?

By the same token,things can change quickly to warmer MDR in the comming 2-3 months.

It is possible but the signal of a warming MDR was already there at this time back in 2017. Right now the MDR isn’t warming.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m completely dumbfounded at how married many are to even the slightest neg anomalies in the MDR as a huge inhibitor. The MDR is highly overrated I’ve come to learn.

It is the breeding ground for most tropical cyclones, I hope you realize that?

[toad strangler]

I’m completely dumbfounded at how married many are to even the slightest neg anomalies in the MDR as a huge inhibitor. The MDR is highly overrated I’ve come to learn.

It is the breeding ground for most tropical cyclones, I hope you realize that?

SST handwringing in the MDR is so over hyped on this forum it’s comical.

[aspen]

I think we can all agree the MDR will be warm enough by ASO. Maybe it’ll still be somewhat cooler than average, but it’s not all of a sudden going to be magically unfavorable for development in terms of just SSTs. It’s probably better to look at wind shear and atmospheric moisture forecasts and other factors that will determine how systems will be able to take advantage of the MDR’s warm waters.

[TheProfessor]

This is what should be payed attention to throughout the season.




Most of the MDR, Caribbean and GoM are at the 26 degrees Celsius minimum or higher and it's still only May. Now if a good majority of these waters cool below 26 degrees during the peak of the season, that''s an entirely different story, but the fact is that a lot of the waters are already warm enough to support a hurricane if all other states of the atmosphere allowed for it. As Unbuntwo mentioned it's likely going to be a combination of other factors like shear, dry air, or subsidence that limits TC formation. Very rarely are the waters not warm enough to support a storm in the western Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

I think we can all agree the MDR will be warm enough by ASO. Maybe it’ll still be somewhat cooler than average, but it’s not all of a sudden going to be magically unfavorable for development in terms of just SSTs. It’s probably better to look at wind shear and atmospheric moisture forecasts and other factors that will determine how systems will be able to take advantage of the MDR’s warm waters.

Bingo.

Edit= What TheProfessor said is another bingo.

[psyclone]

We're in the "pot on the stove" stage still in the first half of solar summer (May-July). By the time solar summer ends (August) the MDR will be plenty warm for tropical activity. The real problem will not be (and rarely is) a dearth of OHC...instead it is a lack of patience by weather fans on a weather board looking for activity to track (full disclosure: I have the bug too). While the MDR slow cooks to its late Summer sizzle, the climo favored regions for early season appetizers will be sufficiently warm for tropical activity. Here in my local area, sea temps are back near to slightly below normal after torching near record warm back in March. Nevertheless persistent heat has now settled in here and by the time the calendar hits june expect water temps in the low to mid 80's over the eastern Gulf...very typical and sufficient for early season activity in a climo favored region. Finally, it is worth remembering that some regions can be below normal but still plenty warm for TC genesis and maintenance. Looking at both anomalies and absolutes together helps keep us grounded in reality. Good luck to all this season

[GrayLancer18]

It is too early to call if the MDR will not be sustainable by the peak of the season.

A lot can happen from this point to ASO.

By this time in 2018, it was believed the MDR was going to be graveyard and we ended up with Cape Verde Florence.

Besides, it's the waters in the Caribbean and GOM that we should pay attention. Most of the powerful storms got their peak intensity there so an average or even a slightly cool MDR should not be calling card to call it quits.

[Shell Mound]

It is too early to call if the MDR will not be sustainable by the peak of the season.

A lot can happen from this point to ASO.

By this time in 2018, it was believed the MDR was going to be graveyard and we ended up with Cape Verde Florence.

Besides, it's the waters in the Caribbean and GOM that we should pay attention. Most of the powerful storms got their peak intensity there so an average or even a slightly cool MDR should not be calling card to call it quits.

On a related note, oceanic heat content in the MDR and Caribbean is actually much cooler and less widespread than on this date in 2005 and 2010:




So there is more good news. Just a few months earlier OHC in the MDR and Caribbean was ahead of 2005 and 2010, so it has cooled a lot since then.

[SFLcane]

The CFS's solution is more realistic to me. When looking at forecasts, we also have to look at present conditions. Clue's on what's actually occurring. The CFS has done a remarkable job in correctly predicting the ocean transitioning towards a possible La Nina. Much better than the Euro. An atmospheric response is lagging, but there's a large and strong trade burst in the far western Pacific that will likely warm the waters near the IPWP/MC which will likely promote increased convection there and trigger the missing La Nina standing wave. It's a process. Some active years I believe in 1995 and 2017, also had little rising motion near the MC during June, but switched in July.

Pacific is only half the battle. If the Atlantic doesn't warm up we're not gonna have a super active year.

There’s much more to it. How many years have had favorable SSTs and below average activity? Even in 2005 the MDR wasn’t much more above average than now (gulf and Caribbean were higher). Even with below average seas, the western basin will be warm enough to support intense systems. But with unfavorable velocities, a stable atmosphere, or dry air? Not happening. Think of all the waves shut out of formation by a huge SAL outbreak, or massive lulls in activity due to widespread subsidence. IMO the importance of sea surface temperatures is overstated, and other factors bear more watching

Well, it's not so much about supporting a storm as the fact that if the MDR waters stay cooler than usual while the waters to the north stay warmer than usual, that promotes sinking and stability. Which prevents storms from even forming.

[TheStormExpert]

Pacific is only half the battle. If the Atlantic doesn't warm up we're not gonna have a super active year.

There’s much more to it. How many years have had favorable SSTs and below average activity? Even in 2005 the MDR wasn’t much more above average than now (gulf and Caribbean were higher). Even with below average seas, the western basin will be warm enough to support intense systems. But with unfavorable velocities, a stable atmosphere, or dry air? Not happening. Think of all the waves shut out of formation by a huge SAL outbreak, or massive lulls in activity due to widespread subsidence. IMO the importance of sea surface temperatures is overstated, and other factors bear more watching

Well, it's not so much about supporting a storm as the fact that if the MDR waters stay cooler than usual while the waters to the north stay warmer than usual, that promotes sinking and stability. Which prevents storms from even forming.

https://i.imgur.com/QDjLaif.png

Yes, if this warmth just north of 20°N stays that will force sinking/stable air over the MDR. This is why I’m already decreasing my numbers. Yes the activity can delay and development in the Caribbean or north of it just east of The Bahamas.

[CyclonicFury]

From my experience, MDR SST anomalies tend to influence the overall activity of a season more than just activity in the MDR. For instance, 2000 and 2018 had a cooler than normal MDR but a few hurricanes formed in the region both years. In 2005, the MDR was very warm, and the season was hyperactive - but the MDR east of the Caribbean was quiet and weak.

The MDR is NOT much cooler than average as some of these posts would make you think. It may be cooler than 2005, 2010 or 2017, but those years had near-record MDR SSTAs.

[toad strangler]

The MDR is NOT much cooler than average as some of these posts would make you think. It may be cooler than 2005, 2010 or 2017, but those years had near-record MDR SSTAs.

This. The anomalies at this point are negligible..... HEADING into the warmest months.

[JetFuel_SE]

From my experience, MDR SST anomalies tend to influence the overall activity of a season more than just activity in the MDR. For instance, 2000 and 2018 had a cooler than normal MDR but a few hurricanes formed in the region both years. In 2005, the MDR was very warm, and the season was hyperactive - but the MDR east of the Caribbean was quiet and weak.

The MDR is NOT much cooler than average as some of these posts would make you think. It may be cooler than 2005, 2010 or 2017, but those years had near-record MDR SSTAs.

And even with a very warm MDR, 2005 had very little activity there, with even 2015 being more active in the MDR, despite the record strong El Niño.

[CyclonicFury]

The MDR is NOT much cooler than average as some of these posts would make you think. It may be cooler than 2005, 2010 or 2017, but those years had near-record MDR SSTAs.

This. The anomalies at this point are negligible..... HEADING into the warmest months.

It depends on the data source used. The NOAA Coral Reef Watch maps make the MDR look fairly similar to 2017, while the CDAS/OISST show a mixed MDR that is mostly warmer than normal in the southeast and cooler than normal in the northwest. However I think the Coral Reef Watch maps have a warm bias in the MDR.