2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

If they merge we could have a traditional +AMO. If the MDR is cooler than the subtropics it can cause stability and sinking over the MDR. Months to go before we look east so we shall see.

[JetFuel_SE]

If they merge we could have a traditional +AMO. If the MDR is cooler than the subtropics it can cause stability and sinking over the MDR. Months to go before we look east so we shall see.

https://i.imgur.com/sC7XE3G.jpg

What analysis method is that?

[Hammy]

At least early on the conditions this season are much more favorable than last season, when we had a storm last 12 hours in May and then the early June system that failed to really consolidate into anything before being absorbed by a trough.

[Kingarabian]

Latest 46 day EPS shows a generally favorable atmospheric setup for the EPAC and Atlantic. Graphic is posted in the ENSO if anyone wants to look at it.

[SFLcane]

Latest 46 day EPS shows a generally favorable atmospheric setup for the EPAC and Atlantic. Graphic is posted in the ENSO if anyone wants to look at it.

Mean smooths out intraseasonal variation. The control shows a dead period mid to late June. Might be another window early-mid July.

[Kingarabian]

Latest 46 day EPS shows a generally favorable atmospheric setup for the EPAC and Atlantic. Graphic is posted in the ENSO if anyone wants to look at it.

Mean smooths out intraseasonal variation. The control shows a dead period mid to late June. Might be another window early-mid July.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/tBPlvYW.jpg[url]

The 46 day mean shows intraseasonal variation if they're significant. The control technically counts as a singular solution out of the 50+1 possibilities. It can give false depictions compared to the mean. It's better to use the 15 day EPS for intraseasonal variation.

[gatorcane]

Massive convection over Africa:

[hurricanes1234]

The extreme eastern portion looks like it might have some kind of parallax error but that western portion is crazy.


I wonder, could this be the start of what the models have been predicting regarding the hyperactive West African monsoon? Or is it just due to the MJO?

[TheAustinMan]

As we enter the season, here's the global SST overview for posterity. A general positive AMO state for the Atlantic (AMO index for May should be available soon), transitioning ENSO regions headed for cool neutral/La Nina, a firery subtropical CPAC/WPAC, and a warm NIO throughout (with perhaps some of Amphan's influence still present). It will certainly be intriguing to see how this global picture evolves as we roll through the months.

245KB. Source: Coral Reef Watch

[galaxy401]

I know early season activity often isn't a precursor for the rest of the season but the fact that we already have 3 named storms that all formed from tropical origins does feel like a omen. Plus the fact we could have a hurricane hitting the Gulf coast along with a developing La Nina makes things even more uneasy. This is going to be a long season (as if this 2020 already isn't long enough).

[gatorcane]

Activity over Africa continues to impress. Look how far north the convection is:

[AnnularCane]

This season certainly has hit the ground running, hasn't it? I remember having a general feeling of unease in 2005 when a second named storm formed in June, like something big was going to happen, and now two named storms in June doesn't seem to hold a candle to what we've had this year so far.

[TheStormExpert]

This season certainly has hit the ground running, hasn't it? I remember having a general feeling of unease in 2005 when a second named storm formed in June, like something big was going to happen, and now two named storms in June doesn't seem to hold a candle to what we've had this year so far.

We’ve only had one named storm so far this month.

[CyclonicFury]

This season certainly has hit the ground running, hasn't it? I remember having a general feeling of unease in 2005 when a second named storm formed in June, like something big was going to happen, and now two named storms in June doesn't seem to hold a candle to what we've had this year so far.

We’ve only had one named storm so far this month.

But we had two named storms in May, which 2005 did not.

Still, I don't think we will see this pace continue all season. There will almost certainly be some sort of lull once the MJO moves out of its favorable phase. June is heavily MJO dependent, and usually it is too early for anything to form in the MDR. I wouldn't be shocked if Cristobal is the only storm this month. But that doesn't mean much for the peak of the season.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1268190442996318213

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1268190442996318213

This!

Looks pretty good for warming the next couple weeks. We may not get much of a break once the REAL season gets going.

[TheStormExpert]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1268190442996318213

This!

Looks pretty good for warming the next couple weeks. We may not get much of a break once the REAL season gets going.

We may get a lull after Cristobal for a bit but once the CV season starts when the lid comes off.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1268219452400812033

[SFLcane]

:crazyeyes:

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1268219452400812033

Main development region Definitely warming now. We could very well see a hyperactive season if that warming keeps up. Buckle up folks

[StruThiO]

!!!!!

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1268225774588321793