2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

Interesting about the possibbility of waves emerging more north.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1277672256655601664

Pappin is speculating. Although it's educated speculation
Webb with a great follow up ....

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1277660372762312705

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting aboout the possibbility of waves emerging more north.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1277672256655601664

I agree, not good for AEW's to track further north.

I’m guessing you’re not really bullish on this season?

[CyclonicFury]

Despite the favorable MJO expected, I wouldn't be surprised if we go all of July without a hurricane. There have been hyperactive seasons without a hurricane in July. July averages about one hurricane every three years on average (and three have formed in the last two years).

IIRC 95% of all Atlantic ACE typically occurs, on average, on August 1 or later. I'm still expecting a very active season, but SAL outbreaks, strong trade winds, and marginal SSTs may keep the MDR in check during July, which is typical for this time of year.

[toad strangler]

Despite the favorable MJO expected, I wouldn't be surprised if we go all of July without a hurricane. There have been hyperactive seasons without a hurricane in July. July averages about one hurricane every three years on average (and three have formed in the last two years).

IIRC 95% of all Atlantic ACE typically occurs, on average, on August 1 or later. I'm still expecting a very active season, but SAL outbreaks, strong trade winds, and marginal SSTs may keep the MDR in check during July, which is typical for this time of year.

I fully expect minimal activity until August 15th. THAT's the bell ringer date for me. June 1st until then is fluff. August 15th - October 31. THAT's your real Atlantic season. Not matter how good or bad indications seem. BUT .... getting semi healthy AEW's ..... NOW in June? That shouldn't be happening.

[NDG]

Despite the favorable MJO expected, I wouldn't be surprised if we go all of July without a hurricane. There have been hyperactive seasons without a hurricane in July. July averages about one hurricane every three years on average (and three have formed in the last two years).

IIRC 95% of all Atlantic ACE typically occurs, on average, on August 1 or later. I'm still expecting a very active season, but SAL outbreaks, strong trade winds, and marginal SSTs may keep the MDR in check during July, which is typical for this time of year.

For the month of July

[toad strangler]

Not exactly sure how this will impact or not impact the season on a whole but Good Lord let that animation play through

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1277755582351585287

[TheStormExpert]

Not exactly sure how this will impact or not impact the season on a whole but Good Lord let that animation play through

http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1277755582351585287?s=20

Apparently there’s an error.

 https://twitter.com/thezodiac13/status/1277768479001718784




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1277770603764867073

[toad strangler]

Not exactly sure how this will impact or not impact the season on a whole but Good Lord let that animation play through

Apparently there’s an error.

No, that's not what Weber said .... re-read that.

[TheStormExpert]

Someone posted a tweet saying SAL peaks in late-June, but that can’t be right considering some of the worst outbreaks occur in July. Usually SAL will go down come late-July into early-August.

Until then enjoy the calm before the storm!

[TheStormExpert]

Despite the favorable MJO expected, I wouldn't be surprised if we go all of July without a hurricane. There have been hyperactive seasons without a hurricane in July. July averages about one hurricane every three years on average (and three have formed in the last two years).

IIRC 95% of all Atlantic ACE typically occurs, on average, on August 1 or later. I'm still expecting a very active season, but SAL outbreaks, strong trade winds, and marginal SSTs may keep the MDR in check during July, which is typical for this time of year.

I fully expect minimal activity until August 15th. THAT's the bell ringer date for me. June 1st until then is fluff. August 15th - October 31. THAT's your real Atlantic season. Not matter how good or bad indications seem. BUT .... getting semi healthy AEW's ..... NOW in June? That shouldn't be happening.

Before anyone attacks me for saying this...

I HIGHLY DOUBT a 2013 repeat is in the cards but never say never! June 2013 featured some impressive TW’s and look how that year turned out.

[toad strangler]

Someone posted a tweet saying SAL peaks in late-June, but that can’t be right considering some of the worst outbreaks occur in July. Usually SAL will go down come late-July into early-August.

Until then enjoy the calm before the storm!

You aren't having a good night. SAL historically peaks in late June. Then it tails off slowly throughout July. Just because the peak happens when it does doesn't mean it's over from there ..... just like the climo peak of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season happens in early September. That doesn't mean you can't have an epic October.... because you absolutely can.

[TheStormExpert]

Someone posted a tweet saying SAL peaks in late-June, but that can’t be right considering some of the worst outbreaks occur in July. Usually SAL will go down come late-July into early-August.

Until then enjoy the calm before the storm!

You aren't having a good night. SAL historically peaks in late June. Then it tails off slowly throughout July. Just because the peak happens when it does doesn't mean it's over from there ..... just like the climo peak of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season happens in early September. That doesn't mean you can't have an epic October.... because you absolutely can.

You're right I'm not having a good night!

And yes I'm fully aware that prime time is from August 20th-October 20th with a peak around September 10th.

[FireRat]

Yeah guys, the real meat of the season is Aug 15 to at least Oct 25... but this year I'd even extend it to Nov 15. This could be one of those years that end up having a November hurricane. Definitely could be wild Sept and Oct, and then stay busy even into Nov.

[drezee]

90.5F at 25m below the surface???

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42013

[FireRat]

90.5F at 25m below the surface???

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42013

Looks like it's actually the temp at a depth of 1 meter or 3.3 ft measured over time. The depth of the water where the buoy is located is about 25 m, but the 88-90 degree temps measured are a meter below the water line.
This is still quite significant, it's literally bath water over there and prime hurricane fuel for the months down the road.

[Hammy]

Despite the favorable MJO expected, I wouldn't be surprised if we go all of July without a hurricane. There have been hyperactive seasons without a hurricane in July. July averages about one hurricane every three years on average (and three have formed in the last two years).

IIRC 95% of all Atlantic ACE typically occurs, on average, on August 1 or later. I'm still expecting a very active season, but SAL outbreaks, strong trade winds, and marginal SSTs may keep the MDR in check during July, which is typical for this time of year.

I fully expect minimal activity until August 15th. THAT's the bell ringer date for me. June 1st until then is fluff. August 15th - October 31. THAT's your real Atlantic season. Not matter how good or bad indications seem. BUT .... getting semi healthy AEW's ..... NOW in June? That shouldn't be happening.

Before anyone attacks me for saying this...

I HIGHLY DOUBT a 2013 repeat is in the cards but never say never! June 2013 featured some impressive TW’s and look how that year turned out.

Since somebody else brought it up (and likewise I"m not at all making a comparison to this year) does anybody know if the Gulf Stream weakening that led to that season failing showed up in the SSTs at any point? I am curious as to whether or not--once something like that happened--if it can be forseen beforehand were it to occur again.

Second, somebody earlier pointed out the WAM being more active can push the waves north--would that explain why a lot of active seasons have little to nothing from mid-July to mid-August? 1996-99 stands out in particular (years with very high wave activity) and not a single tropical storm developed in any of those years during almost the first three weeks of August, and in fact August 19 was the switch date for three of them.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1277674030431121408



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1277680662447902720



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1277678040315645952

I fully expect minimal activity until August 15th. THAT's the bell ringer date for me. June 1st until then is fluff. August 15th - October 31. THAT's your real Atlantic season. Not matter how good or bad indications seem. BUT .... getting semi healthy AEW's ..... NOW in June? That shouldn't be happening.

Before anyone attacks me for saying this...

I HIGHLY DOUBT a 2013 repeat is in the cards but never say never! June 2013 featured some impressive TW’s and look how that year turned out.

Since somebody else brought it up (and likewise I"m not at all making a comparison to this year) does anybody know if the Gulf Stream weakening that led to that season failing showed up in the SSTs at any point? I am curious as to whether or not--once something like that happened--if it can be forseen beforehand were it to occur again.

Second, somebody earlier pointed out the WAM being more active can push the waves north--would that explain why a lot of active seasons have little to nothing from mid-July to mid-August? 1996-99 stands out in particular (years with very high wave activity) and not a single tropical storm developed in any of those years during almost the first three weeks of August, and in fact August 19 was the switch date for three of them.

Interestingly, May–June 1996 featured above-average rainfall over North Africa, but the same period featured near- to below-average precipitation from 1997–9. Regardless, I think that the WAM exerts a stronger positive influence on years in which other factors are rather marginal for TC activity, à la 2015 and 2018. The WAM functions as part of an interplay of factors engaged in complex interactions. Anyway, I personally think that the TUTT has exerted as least as much influence as the SAL in limiting activity thus far, if not more so.

[NDG]

Someone posted a tweet saying SAL peaks in late-June, but that can’t be right considering some of the worst outbreaks occur in July. Usually SAL will go down come late-July into early-August.

Until then enjoy the calm before the storm!

You aren't having a good night. SAL historically peaks in late June. Then it tails off slowly throughout July. Just because the peak happens when it does doesn't mean it's over from there ..... just like the climo peak of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season happens in early September. That doesn't mean you can't have an epic October.... because you absolutely can.

You are incorrect, you didn't finished reading when SAL peaks, "Saharan Air Layer activity usually ramps up in mid-June, peaks from late June to mid-August,
and begins to rapidly subside after mid-Augustt". So in another words in average July is when is at its worst, proven by previous years. And by the way things look it could very well continue to through July.

https://www.weather.gov/media/zhu/Sahar ... _Plume.pdf

[toad strangler]

Someone posted a tweet saying SAL peaks in late-June, but that can’t be right considering some of the worst outbreaks occur in July. Usually SAL will go down come late-July into early-August.

Until then enjoy the calm before the storm!

You aren't having a good night. SAL historically peaks in late June. Then it tails off slowly throughout July. Just because the peak happens when it does doesn't mean it's over from there ..... just like the climo peak of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season happens in early September. That doesn't mean you can't have an epic October.... because you absolutely can.

You are incorrect, you didn't finished reading when SAL peaks, "Saharan Air Layer activity usually ramps up in mid-June, peaks from late June to mid-August,
and begins to rapidly subside after mid-Augustt". So in another words in average July is when is at its worst, proven by previous years. And by the way things look it could very well continue to through July.

https://www.weather.gov/media/zhu/Sahar ... _Plume.pdf

I think we are splitting hairs here and I wouldn't state that I'm incorrect. The last 17 years have had SAL peak average in late June. Post #1161 in this thread. Also, I have previously mentioned that SAL can easily reign through July and even the first half of August. There would be nothing abnormal about that.

[NDG]

You aren't having a good night. SAL historically peaks in late June. Then it tails off slowly throughout July. Just because the peak happens when it does doesn't mean it's over from there ..... just like the climo peak of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season happens in early September. That doesn't mean you can't have an epic October.... because you absolutely can.

You are incorrect, you didn't finished reading when SAL peaks, "Saharan Air Layer activity usually ramps up in mid-June, peaks from late June to mid-August,
and begins to rapidly subside after mid-Augustt". So in another words in average July is when is at its worst, proven by previous years. And by the way things look it could very well continue to through July.

https://www.weather.gov/media/zhu/Sahar ... _Plume.pdf

I think we are splitting hairs here and I wouldn't state that I'm incorrect. The last 17 years have had SAL peak average in late July. Post #1161 in this thread. Also, I have previously mentioned that SAL can easily reign through July and even the first half of August. There would be nothing abnormal about that.

So why would you say that "SAL peaks in late late June and that it tails off throughout July" is either A or B, make up your mind