2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

Despite this record-breaking season, there is noticeable lack of anything significant so far in the area I circled which ironically is probably the most vulnerable to hurricanes which includes peninsula Florida, the islands and the area south of Bermuda in the SW Atlantic. Isaias and Laura did move through this area but were not high impact wind storms:

https://i.postimg.cc/T2FFmf0x/DEA969-D3-CB1-C-42-BF-8-EDD-22404-AA816-EA.jpg

That's the tropics being the tropics!

[TheStormExpert]

Despite this record-breaking season, there is noticeable lack of anything significant so far in the area I circled which ironically is probably the most vulnerable to hurricanes which includes peninsula Florida, the islands and the area south of Bermuda in the SW Atlantic. Isaias and Laura did move through this area but were not high impact wind storms:

https://i.postimg.cc/T2FFmf0x/DEA969-D3-CB1-C-42-BF-8-EDD-22404-AA816-EA.jpg

Well at least this is good news for places such as The Abacos and Grand Bahamas Island that suffered severely from Dorian last year.

As for the Florida peninsula we just keep getting real lucky outside of Irma in 2017 which wasn’t as bad as originally forecasted to be, especially for SE Florida.

[toad strangler]

Despite this record-breaking season, there is noticeable lack of anything significant so far in the area I circled which ironically is probably the most vulnerable to hurricanes which includes peninsula Florida, the islands and the area south of Bermuda in the SW Atlantic. Isaias and Laura did move through this area but were not high impact wind storms:

https://i.postimg.cc/T2FFmf0x/DEA969-D3-CB1-C-42-BF-8-EDD-22404-AA816-EA.jpg

Well at least this is good news for places such as The Abacos and Grand Bahamas Island that suffered severely from Dorian last year.

As for the Florida peninsula we just keep getting real lucky outside of Irma in 2017 which wasn’t as bad as originally forecasted to be, especially for SE Florida.

Irma was plenty bad for the Keys and and the SW peninsula where it actually hit. I work in the roofing industry and rest assured it caused havoc. It was NOT a miss by any stretch. To you in the urban center of SE FL it was a very close miss.

[ElectricStorm]

Despite this record-breaking season, there is noticeable lack of anything significant so far in the area I circled which ironically is probably the most vulnerable to hurricanes which includes peninsula Florida, the islands and the area south of Bermuda in the SW Atlantic. Isaias and Laura did move through this area but were not high impact wind storms:

https://i.postimg.cc/T2FFmf0x/DEA969-D3-CB1-C-42-BF-8-EDD-22404-AA816-EA.jpg

Well at least this is good news for places such as The Abacos and Grand Bahamas Island that suffered severely from Dorian last year.

As for the Florida peninsula we just keep getting real lucky outside of Irma in 2017 which wasn’t as bad as originally forecasted to be, especially for SE Florida.

Irma was plenty bad for the Keys and and the SW peninsula where it actually hit. I work in the roofing industry and rest assured it caused havoc. It was NOT a miss by any stretch. To you in the urban center of SE FL it was a very close miss.

Yeah I agree. What people call SE Florida on here is such a small area, it's like picking a random point in the Atlantic and counting storms that hit that exact spot. Irma was a direct hit on S Florida so I'm not sure why people don't count that. I get that it didn't hit the most populated areas down there but I don't understand how people just dismiss it when it comes to talking about the "shield" Florida has

[TheStormExpert]

Despite this record-breaking season, there is noticeable lack of anything significant so far in the area I circled which ironically is probably the most vulnerable to hurricanes which includes peninsula Florida, the islands and the area south of Bermuda in the SW Atlantic. Isaias and Laura did move through this area but were not high impact wind storms:

https://i.postimg.cc/T2FFmf0x/DEA969-D3-CB1-C-42-BF-8-EDD-22404-AA816-EA.jpg

Well at least this is good news for places such as The Abacos and Grand Bahamas Island that suffered severely from Dorian last year.

As for the Florida peninsula we just keep getting real lucky outside of Irma in 2017 which wasn’t as bad as originally forecasted to be, especially for SE Florida.

Irma was plenty bad for the Keys and and the SW peninsula where it actually hit. I work in the roofing industry and rest assured it caused havoc. It was NOT a miss by any stretch. To you in the urban center of SE FL it was a very close miss.

It was originally forecasted to be an intense Cat.4 strike on metropolitan SE Florida. But overall the peninsula has done well since the dreaded 2004 season with only Wilma and Irma being significant impacting threats.

[TheStormExpert]

Well at least this is good news for places such as The Abacos and Grand Bahamas Island that suffered severely from Dorian last year.

As for the Florida peninsula we just keep getting real lucky outside of Irma in 2017 which wasn’t as bad as originally forecasted to be, especially for SE Florida.

Irma was plenty bad for the Keys and and the SW peninsula where it actually hit. I work in the roofing industry and rest assured it caused havoc. It was NOT a miss by any stretch. To you in the urban center of SE FL it was a very close miss.

Yeah I agree. What people call SE Florida on here is such a small area, it's like picking a random point in the Atlantic and counting storms that hit that exact spot. Irma was a direct hit on S Florida so I'm not sure why people don't count that. I get that it didn't hit the most populated areas down there but I don't understand how people just dismiss it when it comes to talking about the "shield" Florida has

SE Florida has the highest property retail value of any portion of this state! So any kind of major hurricane impact on this portion would be beyond catastrophic. Not to mention we have a much shorter hurricane return period when compared to places like NE Florida, the panhandle, or the west coast of Florida.

[ElectricStorm]

Irma was plenty bad for the Keys and and the SW peninsula where it actually hit. I work in the roofing industry and rest assured it caused havoc. It was NOT a miss by any stretch. To you in the urban center of SE FL it was a very close miss.

Yeah I agree. What people call SE Florida on here is such a small area, it's like picking a random point in the Atlantic and counting storms that hit that exact spot. Irma was a direct hit on S Florida so I'm not sure why people don't count that. I get that it didn't hit the most populated areas down there but I don't understand how people just dismiss it when it comes to talking about the "shield" Florida has

SE Florida has the highest property retail value of any portion of this state! So any kind of major hurricane impact on this portion would be beyond catastrophic. Not to mention we have a much shorter hurricane return period when compared to places like NE Florida, the panhandle, or the west coast of Florida.

Yeah I get that, but it just seems weird that people treat Irma like it never even came close to them when in reality it barely missed. But I'm not even from Florida, never even been there so what do I know lol

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah I agree. What people call SE Florida on here is such a small area, it's like picking a random point in the Atlantic and counting storms that hit that exact spot. Irma was a direct hit on S Florida so I'm not sure why people don't count that. I get that it didn't hit the most populated areas down there but I don't understand how people just dismiss it when it comes to talking about the "shield" Florida has

SE Florida has the highest property retail value of any portion of this state! So any kind of major hurricane impact on this portion would be beyond catastrophic. Not to mention we have a much shorter hurricane return period when compared to places like NE Florida, the panhandle, or the west coast of Florida.

Yeah I get that, but it just seems weird that people treat Irma like it never even came close to them when in reality it barely missed. But I'm not even from Florida, never even been there so what do I know lol

Yes, it barely missed and was the most eventful storm out of it Matthew, and Dorian. But metropolitan SE Florida only had hurricane wind gusts with sustained TS winds. No sustained hurricane winds.

[toad strangler]

Irma was plenty bad for the Keys and and the SW peninsula where it actually hit. I work in the roofing industry and rest assured it caused havoc. It was NOT a miss by any stretch. To you in the urban center of SE FL it was a very close miss.

Yeah I agree. What people call SE Florida on here is such a small area, it's like picking a random point in the Atlantic and counting storms that hit that exact spot. Irma was a direct hit on S Florida so I'm not sure why people don't count that. I get that it didn't hit the most populated areas down there but I don't understand how people just dismiss it when it comes to talking about the "shield" Florida has

SE Florida has the highest property retail value of any portion of this state! So any kind of major hurricane impact on this portion would be beyond catastrophic. Noyt to mention we have a much shorter hurricane return period when compared to places like NE Florida, the panhandle, or the west coast of Florida.

"Beyond catastrophic" is sensationalism in my view. S FL has had the most stringent building codes in the nation in recent memory and does nothing but continue to fortify with new construction and remodeling of older structures.. I am confident the area will hold up much better than many anticipate.

[tolakram]

First we go years without a major and end up having these constant arguments about majors never hitting the US again (yea, it happened). Now it's they didn't hit in the 'right place' and even some have gone as far as claiming Florida is protected (yea, it happened).

My point of view is every season is different, and while the odds of some locations getting hit over others might be higher, or seem higher, I'm not sure how factual it is. For Florida to get hit from the east you need a storm in just the right location and a ridge just weak enough to not drive the storm too far south, but not so weak that it recurves up the coast. I see east coast Florida hits as rare, and I'm not sure why it comes up every season.



What am I missing?

[toad strangler]

First we go years without a major and end up having these constant arguments about majors never hitting the US again (yea, it happened). Now it's they didn't hit in the 'right place' and even some have gone as far as claiming Florida is protected (yea, it happened).

My point of view is every season is different, and while the odds of some locations getting hit over others might be higher, or seem higher, I'm not sure how factual it is. For Florida to get hit from the east you need a storm in just the right location and a ridge just weak enough to not drive the storm too far south, but not so weak that it recurves up the coast. I see east coast Florida hits as rare, and I'm not sure why it comes up every season.

https://i.imgur.com/zDocBuD.jpg

What am I missing?

Well the only thing I would use to counter the East Coast FL rare tag is that the historic return rate is among the lowest(most frequent) in the CONUS for a Cat 1 Minimum in Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade counties. Right up there with the Central Gulf Coast and NC / Outer Banks.

EDITED to add that this return rate is from the NOAA and includes a 100 year average. Honestly I think that 100 years is even too small of a sample size let alone 57 years shown in the map posted. I'd love to see what a accurate 500 year map looks like ....

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#returns

[TheStormExpert]

Here’s some graphics to show that Florida is one of the hurricane hit hotspots along with the Carolinas and the Northern Gulf Coast. Being SE Florida’s last hurricane strike was Katrina in 2005, we are way overdue! Not to mention Andrew in 1992 was the last major hurricane strike in SE Florida.

[toad strangler]

Here’s some graphics to show that Florida is one of the hurricane hit hotspots along with the Carolinas and the Northern Gulf Coast. Being SE Florida’s last hurricane strike was Katrina in 2005, we are way overdue! Not to mention Andrew in 1992 was the last major hurricane strike in SE Florida.

Those are all right in the link I provided in my last post!

The caveat here though is those return maps don't necessarily mean landfalls. The return rate uses WITHIN 50 miles as a strike.
So for instance, Matthew was a strike for much of the FL East Coast even though he stayed offshore. Thus, you aren't as overdue as you think you are

[psyclone]

Low hurricane strike frequency was one of my factors in deciding to locate to the Tampa Bay area. So far it's working well.

[tolakram]

Here’s some graphics to show that Florida is one of the hurricane hit hotspots along with the Carolinas and the Northern Gulf Coast. Being SE Florida’s last hurricane strike was Katrina in 2005, we are way overdue! Not to mention Andrew in 1992 was the last major hurricane strike in SE Florida.

Those are all right in the link I provided in my last post!

The caveat here though is those return maps don't necessarily mean landfalls. The return rate uses WITHIN 50 miles as a strike.
So for instance, Matthew was a strike for much of the FL East Coast even though he stayed offshore. Thus, you aren't as overdue as you think you are

Right, I want storms where actual landfall happened. I see that as part of the amateur observation problem. If it doesn't look like a classic hurricane then something is wrong, and if it doesn't make landfall then it missed. Statistics all seem to go by affected, not actual landfalls. edit: The map I showed were strikes, and I think it's fair to say if a hurricane doesn't strike an area most consider it a miss.

[toad strangler]

Here’s some graphics to show that Florida is one of the hurricane hit hotspots along with the Carolinas and the Northern Gulf Coast. Being SE Florida’s last hurricane strike was Katrina in 2005, we are way overdue! Not to mention Andrew in 1992 was the last major hurricane strike in SE Florida.

Those are all right in the link I provided in my last post!

The caveat here though is those return maps don't necessarily mean landfalls. The return rate uses WITHIN 50 miles as a strike.
So for instance, Matthew was a strike for much of the FL East Coast even though he stayed offshore. Thus, you aren't as overdue as you think you are

Right, I want storms where actual landfall happened. I see that as part of the amateur observation problem. If it doesn't look like a classic hurricane then something is wrong, and if it doesn't make landfall then it missed. Statistics all seem to go by affected, not actual landfalls. edit: The map I showed were strikes, and I think it's fair to say if a hurricane doesn't strike an area most consider it a miss.

NOAA clearly states the map intent on the their site but they don't put it on the actual graphic. So the map gets saved and pasted all over the place without the pertinent information like it was above on this page. Which is ......

"Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing
within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast"

It would help the mis read issues a ton if that was somewhere on the graphic!

[aspen]

I can’t believe how insanely active the Gulf has been this year. I know most of us were expecting a generally west-focused season, but wow, the Gulf has been a near record hot spot for activity. Cristobal, Hanna, Laura, Marco, Sally, Beta, and now Delta have all intensified in the Gulf and impacted somewhere on the coast, and there have been so many storms that there’ll probably be almost no ocean heat left to support anything once Delta is finished. It’s like this season is using every last drop of potential the Gulf has. Hopefully Delta will be the last storm there for this season, and thanks to the cold front, there won’t by any more RI hurricane landfalls like Hanna, Laura, and Sally.

[ElectricStorm]

I can’t believe how insanely active the Gulf has been this year. I know most of us were expecting a generally west-focused season, but wow, the Gulf has been a near record hot spot for activity. Cristobal, Hanna, Laura, Marco, Sally, Beta, and now Delta have all intensified in the Gulf and impacted somewhere on the coast, and there have been so many storms that there’ll probably be almost no ocean heat left to support anything once Delta is finished. It’s like this season is using every last drop of potential the Gulf has. Hopefully Delta will be the last storm there for this season, and thanks to the cold front, there won’t by any more RI hurricane landfalls like Hanna, Laura, and Sally.

It's crazy how Delta will be the record 10th CONUS landfall this season. And the 5th hurricane... Just ready for the season to be over... 2021 can't get here soon enough... For many reasons. Also, the gulf has had so many storms that the "2020 Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season" could probably have it's own Wikipedia page now lol

[CyclonicFury]

If Delta makes landfall in the US as a hurricane as currently expected, it will be the 10th U.S. TS+ landfall, which breaks the record set in 1916. It will also mean that there has been at least one TS+ US landfall in every month from May to October, and at least one US hurricane landfall in each month from July to October (I know 2005 pulled this off, not sure about other seasons).

[Ryxn]

I can’t believe how insanely active the Gulf has been this year. I know most of us were expecting a generally west-focused season, but wow, the Gulf has been a near record hot spot for activity. Cristobal, Hanna, Laura, Marco, Sally, Beta, and now Delta have all intensified in the Gulf and impacted somewhere on the coast, and there have been so many storms that there’ll probably be almost no ocean heat left to support anything once Delta is finished. It’s like this season is using every last drop of potential the Gulf has. Hopefully Delta will be the last storm there for this season, and thanks to the cold front, there won’t by any more RI hurricane landfalls like Hanna, Laura, and Sally.

Unfortunately, I don't think it will be the last storm...