2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[DestinHurricane]

Saying that the Carribean is just "warm" is an understatement. It's running nearly a full degree C above average and has some of the highest SSTs and OHC in the world.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/carssta.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_watl_1.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

It's definitely boiling down there. The question is the shear.

[chaser1]

While I dont think this season is at all over, I am beginning to think that it may only have 1 or 2 big swings of the bat left in her. Sure, we'll see a couple N. Atlantic garbage storms.... maybe even a BOC minimal hurricane that spins in place or moves swiftly inland. Thinking back though, I don't recall any years having October or November hurricanes (such as King, Hazel or Opal) that impacted the CONUS where a second threat also emerged out of the Caribbean that same year to also strike the U.S. My point being that perhaps whatever might develop and move north out of the Caribbean during the first 2 weeks of October, might just be 2020's final best shot at a strong gut-punch to the U.S. Beyond that, I could maybe see another late season "poor-man's" Mitch develop into November and possibly impacting Central America. Otherwise, there may not be much more to really threaten the U.S. (unless we're talking about some other stretched out T.S. racing along a November cold-front).

[Cyclenall]

This might be the season that something actually happens during the last 3-5 days of Sept instead of "near nothing". I checked the last 3 hyperactive seasons and the only thing to note was major hurricane Lee in 2017 in the middle of the Atlantic during those last Sept days. Hurricane Joaquin was ramping up as a CAT1-2 around the turn to Oct but other than that crazy one I couldn't think of anything off the top.

What a shock, the streak/trend of nothing happening during the last 3-5 days of Sept will continue. How come no one talks about this bizarre pattern? Its relativity close to the peak of hurricane season and EVERY YEAR its the same!!

[SconnieCane]

This might be the season that something actually happens during the last 3-5 days of Sept instead of "near nothing". I checked the last 3 hyperactive seasons and the only thing to note was major hurricane Lee in 2017 in the middle of the Atlantic during those last Sept days. Hurricane Joaquin was ramping up as a CAT1-2 around the turn to Oct but other than that crazy one I couldn't think of anything off the top.

What a shock, the streak/trend of nothing happening during the last 3-5 days of Sept will continue. How come no one talks about this bizarre pattern? Its relativity close to the peak of hurricane season and EVERY YEAR its the same!!

Matthew formed 9/28 in '16.

[TheStormExpert]

Paulette is STILL hanging out near the Azores and may need to be monitored in a a few days AGAIN.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1309583450781876224




 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1309584858692411392

[Cyclenall]

This might be the season that something actually happens during the last 3-5 days of Sept instead of "near nothing". I checked the last 3 hyperactive seasons and the only thing to note was major hurricane Lee in 2017 in the middle of the Atlantic during those last Sept days. Hurricane Joaquin was ramping up as a CAT1-2 around the turn to Oct but other than that crazy one I couldn't think of anything off the top.

What a shock, the streak/trend of nothing happening during the last 3-5 days of Sept will continue. How come no one talks about this bizarre pattern? Its relativity close to the peak of hurricane season and EVERY YEAR its the same!!

Matthew formed 9/28 in '16.

I forgot about him, he RI'd on the 30th and to a CAT5 by Oct 1. Both him and Hurricane Joaquin did their thing just as the calendar was changing. Now its time to look at systems effecting the US during the last Sept days.

For US landfalls:

If the window is 23-28 then Rita makes it in for probably most significant for the 24th. Sept 25 had two CAT2 hurricanes from the late 1800s. Sept 26 had Jeanne from 2004 which admittedly I also forgot about. On the same day "San Ciprian" a Category 2 hurricane from 1932 for US Virgin Islands. San Ciprian the next day effected Puerto Rico.

Sept 27: Helene (didn't make LF) 1958, Gloria 1985, 1906 Mississippi hurricane

Sept 28: Georges 1998, 1929 Bahamas hurricane hit on the Florida Keys at Key Largo

Sept 29: Gracie 1959 major, all the rest were unnamed hurricanes including the 1915 New Orleans hurricane (more than the 28th)

Sept 30: Hurricane Ginger 1971 weak LF on NC

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U ... hurricanes

Ultimately for being just 15-20 days removed from peak hurricane activity, only having those notable events for 170 years of data is insane. There are many that were unnamed hurricanes that may not have made LF. If this was tallied in 1997 the 28th would've been 1 for 155 years of data.

[Hammy]

There does seem to be a dip in the seasonal activity at the end of September especially if the rest of the month has been active. Most years that have something happening in late September don't have a whole lot prior during the month. 2005 had Rita but that followed a lull in the middle of the month. Even 1995 didn't have much other than Noel out in the far eastern Atlantic in the back third of September, contrast with 1996 where all the activity was at the start and end.

[chaser1]

Huge Eastern Atlantic low to mid level surge can easily be seen on visible and WV. Per this a.m.'s Tropical Outlook, these wave features mentioned below are trucking along nicely and it is the southern extension of each wave axis that global models are increasingly pointing toward some type of development during the upcoming couple of weeks. Furthermore, additional low latitude perturbances appear within the ITCZ further east yet. Suffice it to say, development will occur where conditions will allow. Keep a close eye on downstream developing divergent upper air conditions with a consideration for earlier season genesis and track I'd be surprised if we didn't see at least two of the three westward moving tropical waves trigger tropical cyclone genesis and potentially impact the Bahamas, Cuba, Yucatan, and/or Florida by October 15th. Beyond that time, i'd fully expect one or more low latitude wave to kick-start development in the SW Caribbean as well. I'd guess that we're probably looking at 4-6 more named T.S.'s before it's all said and done (unless LaNina really put's November into overdrive?).

1) A tropical wave extends its axis along 62W from 03N-16N, moving W at 10-15 kt.
2) A tropical wave extends its axis along 48W from 01N-16N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt.
3) A tropical wave with axis along 27W from 02N-19N, is moving west at 15 kt.

[Frank2]

The easterlies in the MDR were absent from Labor Day until a couple of days ago, but are present again for at least a little while. They usually are observed full-time from about July 4 until Labor Day and then off and on until late October, but from what I was once told by a forecaster they really do not stop completely even during the winter months.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

The models show something forming south of Florida in about 6 days so we'll see if it amounts to anything, because the west to east mid-latitude pattern is very active at present so fronts and shear will be a factor.

[TheStormExpert]

Let's see if October can produce something considering we're in a La Niña. I'm not too concerned about the two waves moving towards the Western Caribbean at the moment. Later October or even November bears watching.

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1310589648603885574

[Steve]

MJO remains not favorable (in 5/6), but upward favorability should return to the Atlantic in about a week. Big front is working it’s way through here, so sunny and 70’s/60’s for about a week in New Orleans. Tropics should have a response as front lifts or washes out. I’m sure that’s all being covered in the WC thread, but I haven’t opened it so far.

[TheStormExpert]

There doesn’t seem to be too much signal and confidence for an super active October. Of course that could always change but according to true most recent fully run GFS run (assuming you can trust them at this point) through mid-October I only count two potential TC’s. The short-lived area in the Western Caribbean and something MAYBE in the Tropical Atlantic.

Of course mid-October is the secondary peak of hurricane season and it would surprise me if we didn’t see something of at least hurricane intensity in the Western Caribbean by October’s end considering the La Niña that’s in place.

[ElectricStorm]

There doesn’t seem to be too much signal and confidence for an super active October. Of course that could always change but according to true most recent fully run GFS run (assuming you can trust them at this point) through mid-October I only count two potential TC’s. The short-lived area in the Western Caribbean and something MAYBE in the Tropical Atlantic.

Of course mid-October is the secondary peak of hurricane season and it would surprise me if we didn’t see something of at least hurricane intensity in the Western Caribbean by October’s end considering the La Niña that’s in place.

I'm not paying any attention to long range models given their track record this year

[toad strangler]

There doesn’t seem to be too much signal and confidence for an super active October. Of course that could always change but according to true most recent fully run GFS run (assuming you can trust them at this point) through mid-October I only count two potential TC’s. The short-lived area in the Western Caribbean and something MAYBE in the Tropical Atlantic.

Of course mid-October is the secondary peak of hurricane season and it would surprise me if we didn’t see something ysof at least hurricane intensity in the Western Caribbean by October’s end considering the La Niña that’s in place.

I'm not paying any attention to long range models given their track record this year

I always pay attention to them but certainly understand how falable they are which is multiplied exponentially once past 5 days. They are a tool. Not forecasters.

[Hammy]

There doesn’t seem to be too much signal and confidence for an super active October. Of course that could always change but according to true most recent fully run GFS run (assuming you can trust them at this point) through mid-October I only count two potential TC’s. The short-lived area in the Western Caribbean and something MAYBE in the Tropical Atlantic.

Of course mid-October is the secondary peak of hurricane season and it would surprise me if we didn’t see something of at least hurricane intensity in the Western Caribbean by October’s end considering the La Niña that’s in place.

GFS has done poorly with development beyond five days when there wasn't a large scale gyre involved. CFS is showing a bit of a lull until the end of the first week of October, followed by a second MDR peak, a few decent recurve systems, and then the western Caribbean lights up at the end of the month.

It also shows a good deal of lowered pressure and possible development in the MDR all the way into December.

[aspen]

There doesn’t seem to be too much signal and confidence for an super active October. Of course that could always change but according to true most recent fully run GFS run (assuming you can trust them at this point) through mid-October I only count two potential TC’s. The short-lived area in the Western Caribbean and something MAYBE in the Tropical Atlantic.

Of course mid-October is the secondary peak of hurricane season and it would surprise me if we didn’t see something of at least hurricane intensity in the Western Caribbean by October’s end considering the La Niña that’s in place.

GFS has done poorly with development beyond five days when there wasn't a large scale gyre involved. CFS is showing a bit of a lull until the end of the first week of October, followed by a second MDR peak, a few decent recurve systems, and then the western Caribbean lights up at the end of the month.

It also shows a good deal of lowered pressure and possible development in the MDR all the way into December.

I initially doubted the CFS earlier in the season, but to my surprise, it’s ended up as one of the better-performing models this year, sniffing out storms like Isaias and Beta weeks ahead of when they formed. It certainly has earned enough credibility for this forecast of an active October (potentially with 1-2 majors by the looks of things) to be taken into consideration.

[tolakram]

In my opinion we're in that lull created when the first cold front makes it pretty far south. It needs to wash out, then things will get started. No idea how active October will be, but I expect the typical October peak to happen.

[chaser1]

What I find particularly ominous is the sudden ramp up of tropical waves stretching from east of the Lesser Antilles eastward and even over Africa. If one were to look at the entire Atlantic basin and ignore the cold front over Florida, one would think it looks like early September. Tomorrow marks the first day of October and I generally stop looking much farther east then 50W. Main reason is that tropical waves in October generally appear to be stuck in place lol, with their westward progression becoming painstakingly slow due to the relaxing easterly trades. That does not appear at all to be happening.... at least not yet. It simply looks like the Atlantic took a short time-out, and is back to 2020 again. I still do not expect any long tracker to possibly remain low latitude and trudge from the Eastern MDR all the way to the E. Caribbean. Still, the idea of strong waves surviving that trek and one or more still developing east of the Lessor Antilles may bring big time consequences to the entire Caribbean, Central America and southeast CONUS.

[Deshaunrob17]

Earlier in the year, there was a lot of talk about Caribbean hurricanes during August and September based on precipitation anomalies.. Good thing those didn't verify (atleast until now) ... The models weren’t wrong because most the Caribbean have had a wet August and September but it wasn’t from hurricanes (excepting Laura for the Greater Antillies). Airport in Trinidad for example had almost 20” of rain in August and Barbados been seeing rough weather

Point is precipitation anomaly is a bad indicator to show where storms are going to go...

[Orlando]

I have lost a link to a site that I use often and wondering if anyone here can help me locate it. I believe Aric originally posted the link several years ago. It is the NESDIS/STAR GOES from NOAA (East Band 13) but with the ability to zoom in and out and move the globe around. I would be grateful to anyone who might have the link and can post it here please.