psyclone wrote:The lessons of climo are very much like sunblock....they need to be reapplied frequently because the lessons are temporary. The Atlantic basin begins climbing the climo ramp in August....but...that climb starts from a low baseline. The net effect is that August tends to be a big month but it is very asymmetric with the 2nd half being where things go boom. The first half of August is frequently (but not always) not much more active than late july. We're still working out SAL and other issues. By mid month...climo magically goes from a headwind to a tailwind. We should start to expect "quality" storms then. We're not entitled to much of that beforehand. A good measuring stick for the people that subject us to this every year (yep it's the same ones and they know exactly who they are)...
LOL. Hopefully if I contributed to that thread, I had something informative to say. I'd be scared to go back and read some of that stuff especially anything I posted after midnight.
Great points by all. The first two months of the 2020 season have made it about as exciting as it could have started. There's a system every several days which we aren't used to in June and July. Most storms have been near land or hit it. Ominous climate models and expert updates to the extreme are constantly coming out. It's a year people should be engaged. We already know what we're looking for with the MJO so maybe there are less season cancel posts than many other years. Seems that way anecdotally to me anyway.
So on the one hand, if we only had maybe a tropical storm and a couple of waves, many people's already short attention spans have them succumbing to cancelling the season. haha. But I just don't get anyone questioning this season at this point. We don't know for sure what's in store, but it doesn't look good. And if the season stays Western-biased overall, there's a fairly good shot that many of us will be be hit by a hurricane this year or have a close call or two.
